From 2010 to 2023, annual realized growth in U.S. oil production consistently outpaced annual growth forecasts.

Notes: Chart presents change in average annual U.S. oil production. Forecasts are based on each year’s January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Realized growth is not yet available for 2024.

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration and authors’ calculations.

Over the past 14 years, U.S. oil production growth (green bars) has consistently outpaced expectations (blue bars), driven by both price and productivity surprises. U.S. oil output hit all-time highs following strong growth that exceeded expectations in the 2010s and a rapid recovery in production post-pandemic. However, recent industry trends appear to be shifting. With reduced drilling activity and a move toward industry consolidation, we may see a more measured approach to expansion, likely leading to a more predictable, though cautious, future growth trajectory.

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Nida Çakır Melek

Senior Economist

Nida Çakır Melek is a senior economist in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. She joined the Bank in August 2013 after receiving her Ph.D…

Alex Gallin

Research Associate

I joined the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in July 2023 after graduating from Carleton College with a BA in Economics. Currently I support Taeyoung Doh and Amaze Lusompa wi…