Economic Bulletin
Recent Bulletins
Post-Pandemic Labor Shortages Have Limited the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Labor Market
Many employers are holding on to workers and hiring less-skilled workers due to severe labor shortages.
Failure of SVB Reduced Local Consumer Spending but Had Limited Effect on Aggregate Spending
While the failure of Silicon Valley Bank dampened consumer spending in some counties, aggregate spending remained resilient.
To Reach the Fed’s Inflation Target, Interest Rates May Have to Remain Restrictive for Some Time
Although federal funds rate hikes began in 2022:Q1, the stance of monetary policy did not become restrictive until 2023:Q1.
Financial Stress May Do Relatively Little to Reduce Inflation
Although financial stress can slow economic activity, it may be less effective in reducing inflation.
Corporate Profits Contributed a Lot to Inflation in 2021 but Little in 2022
Corporate profits contributed a similar amount to inflation during the pandemic recovery as in past recoveries.
Will High Underlying Inflation Persist?
Underlying (or prevailing) inflation could near 2 percent next year if current inflation forecasts are realized.
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