Recent Research
Do Bank Bailouts Reduce or Increase Systemic Risk? The Effects of TARP on Financial System Stability
By Raluca A. Roman, Allen N. Berger and John Sedunov RESEARCH WORKING PAPERThe TARP bailout significantly reduced contributions to systemic risk, particularly for large banks, safe banks, and banks located in strong local economies. These reductions occurred primarily through a capital cushion channel.Global Uncertainty in the Wake of Brexit
By Craig S. Hakkio and Nicholas Sly THE MACRO BULLETINCraig S. Hakkio and Nicholas Sly find that increased global uncertainty after Brexit will be a major concern for the United Kingdom, a modest concern for the euro area, and a minor concern for the United States.Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches
By Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi RESEARCH WORKING PAPERHow should monetary policy rules respond to shifts in the economy?Recession Forecasting Using Bayesian Classification
By Troy Davig and Aaron Smalter Hall RESEARCH WORKING PAPERA new approach to recession forecasting outperforms competing methods up to 12 months in advance.Tracking Consumer Credit Trends
By Troy Davig and William Xu THE MACRO BULLETINTroy Davig and William Xu find that a larger share of consumers with low credit scores are increasing their debt than those with high credit scores.Raising Capital When the Going Gets Tough: U.S. Bank Equity Issuance from 2001 to 2014
By Rajdeep Sengupta, Lamont Black and Ioannis Floros RESEARCH WORKING PAPERBank equity issuance to private investors peaked during the crisis even as investor requirements grew more stringent.The Drag of Energy and Manufacturing on Productivity Growth
By Willem Van Zandweghe THE MACRO BULLETINWillem Van Zandweghe finds a decline in manufacturing and mining activity has slowed overall productivity growth.Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the Summary of Economic Projections
By George A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer THE MACRO BULLETINGeorge A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer assess how FOMC participants' projections that policy would lift off from its effective lower bound related to their projections for inflation and unemployment.Flowing into Employment: Implications for the Participation Rate
By Jose Mustre-del-Río, Michael Redmond and William Xu THE MACRO BULLETINJosé Mustre-del-Río, Michael Redmond, and William Xu find more prime-age individuals are flowing into employment from outside the labor force, though effects on the participation rate could be limited by educational attainment.Debt-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Expansions
By Huixin Bi, Wenyi Shen and Shu-Chun S. Yang RESEARCH WORKING PAPERThe effects of an increase in government spending are not necessarily debt-dependent—instead, they may depend on general economic conditions as well as whether the government stabilizes debt through taxes or spending.Economic Review
Consumer Spending in China: The Past and the Future
By Jun Nie and Andrew Palmer Jun Nie and Andrew Palmer examine the recent rise in the share of consumer spending in Chinese GDP to assess whether China can become a consumption-driven economy.Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy on and off the Zero Lower Bound
By Taeyoung Doh and Jason ChoiTaeyoung Doh and Jason Choi propose a new “shadow” short-term interest rate to measure the stance of policy when the federal funds rate was constrained by the zero lower bound.
Additional files: Data SupplementAccess to Electronic Payments Systems by Unbanked Consumers
By Fumiko Hayashi Fumiko Hayashi identifies electronic payment products that can mitigate unbanked consumers’ problems with the banking system.Has the Relationship between Bank Size and Profitability Changed?
By Rajdeep Sengupta and Kristen Regehr Kristen Regehr and Rajdeep Sengupta explore whether the relationship between bank size and profitability changed after the 2007–09 financial crisis.Consumption Growth Regimes and the Post-Financial Crisis Recovery
By Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi find that consumption has grown more slowly after the Great Recession due to the continued influence of persistent factors unusual to see outside recessions.The Center for the Advancement of Data and Research in Economics
CADRE provides high performance computing capabilities and research data management and curation services to the research community.
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
Our annual symposium draws central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world. The proceedings include papers, commentaries and discussions.
About the Symposium | Archive
Monetary Policy & Macroeconomics
Issues of importance to the Federal Reserve, including financial markets, banking, monetary policy and more.
Banking, Payments & Financial Markets
Issues affecting the banking and payments industries.
Community Research
Economic issues affecting low- and moderate- income communities, including fair and impartial access to credit.
