Troy Davig and Aaron Smalter Hall RESEARCH WORKING PAPERA new approach to recession forecasting outperforms competing methods up to 12 months in advance.
Rajdeep Sengupta, Lamont Black and Ioannis Floros RESEARCH WORKING PAPERBank equity issuance to private investors peaked during the crisis even as investor requirements grew more stringent.
Willem Van Zandweghe THE MACRO BULLETINWillem Van Zandweghe finds a decline in manufacturing and mining activity has slowed overall productivity growth.
George Kahn and Andrew Palmer THE MACRO BULLETINGeorge A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer assess how FOMC participants' projections that policy would lift off from its effective lower bound related to their projections for inflation and unemployment.
Jose Mustre-del-Río, Michael Redmond and William Xu THE MACRO BULLETINJosé Mustre-del-Río, Michael Redmond, and William Xu find more prime-age individuals are flowing into employment from outside the labor force, though effects on the participation rate could be limited by educational attainment.
Huixin Bi, Wenyi Shen and Shu-Chun S. Yang RESEARCH WORKING PAPERThe effects of an increase in government spending are not necessarily debt-dependent—instead, they may depend on general economic conditions as well as whether the government stabilizes debt through taxes or spending.
Taeyoung Doh and Jason Choi Taeyoung Doh and Jason Choi propose a new “shadow” short-term interest rate to measure the stance of policy when the federal funds rate was constrained by the zero lower bound.
Fumiko Hayashi Fumiko Hayashi identifies electronic payment products that can mitigate unbanked consumers’ problems with the banking system.
Rajdeep Sengupta and Kristen Regehr Kristen Regehr and Rajdeep Sengupta explore whether the relationship between bank size and profitability changed after the 2007–09 financial crisis.
Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi find that consumption has grown more slowly after the Great Recession due to the continued influence of persistent factors unusual to see outside recessions.
Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the FOMC's Summary of Economic ProjectionsBy George Kahn and Andrew Palmer George A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer assess how FOMC participants' projections that policy would lift off from its effective lower bound related to their projections for inflation and unemployment. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
Michael Redmond and Willem Van Zandweghe Michael Redmond and Willem Van Zandweghe find that tight credit conditions during the 2007–09 financial crisis dampened productivity, leaving it on a lower trajectory. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
Brent Bundick Brent Bundick examines whether the FOMC’s implicit monetary policy rule, as perceived by professional forecasters, changed when the federal funds rate reached its effective lower bound. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.