Recent Research

LMCI suggest the level of activity increased modestly and momentum remained high in September

October 12, 2017
Labor Market Conditions Indicators Activity increased and momentum remained high.

Fiscal Sustainability: A Cross-Country Analysis

By Huixin Bi
October 12, 2017
Economic Review A new country-specific framework quantifies the maximum level of debt a government can sustain given its economic and policy environment.

Macroeconomic Indicator Forecasting with Deep Neural Networks

By Aaron Smalter Hall and Thomas R. Cook
September 29, 2017
Research Working Paper New forecasting models based on deep neural networks may improve the accuracy of economic forecasts.

Examining the Recent Shift in State and Local Pension Plans to Alternative Investments

By Huixin Bi and Trenton Herriford
September 27, 2017
The Macro Bulletin State and local pension plans are increasingly turning to alternative investments, but underfunding only partially explains this shift.

The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis

By Nida Cakir Melek, Michael Plante and Mine K. Yucel
September 22, 2017
Research Working Paper The U.S. shale oil boom had sizable effects not only on upstream and downstream energy sectors but also on GDP and trade flows. However, the crude oil export ban created large distortions in the energy sector.

Economic Review

Fiscal Sustainability: A Cross-Country Analysis

By Huixin Bi Economic Review

A new country-specific framework quantifies the maximum level of debt a government can sustain given its economic and policy environment.

Banking on Distributed Ledger Technology: Can It Help Banks Address Financial Inclusion?

By W. Blake Marsh and Jesse Leigh Maniff Economic Review

Despite its promise, distributed ledger technology is unlikely to draw unbanked consumers into the financial mainstream.

Dissecting Wage Dispersion

By San Cannon and José Mustre-del-Río Economic Review

 “Where you work” contributes more to residual wage dispersion than “who you are.”

The Changing Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation

By Willem Van Zandweghe Economic Review The labor force participation rate has become more sensitive to the business cycle.

The Changing Input-Output Network Structure of the U.S. Economy

By Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi Economic Review U.S. industries have become less connected over the last 10 years, and service industries have become more central. See appendix.
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