Recent Research
LMCI suggest the level of activity increased and momentum remained high in July
August 09, 2017
Labor Market Conditions Indicators
Activity increased and momentum remained high.
Trend and Uncertainty in the Long-Term Real Interest Rate: Bayesian Exponential Tilting with Survey Data
By Taeyoung DohJuly 28, 2017
Research Working Paper
New estimates of trend inflation and interest rates suggest the economy has not permanently shifted to a low-growth and low-inflation regime.
Subsiding Headwinds from the Strong Dollar: Evidence from Producer Prices along the Supply Chain
By George A. Kahn and Nicholas SlyJuly 13, 2017
The Macro Bulletin
The foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar has stabilized, and producer prices are rising, especially at early stages of the supply chain.
Labor market conditions suggest the level of activity declined and momentum remained high in June
July 12, 2017
Labor Market Conditions Indicators
Activity declined and momentum remains high.
Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and the Term Premium
By Brent Bundick, A. Lee Smith and Trenton HerrifordJuly 12, 2017
Research Working Paper
Forward guidance about future monetary policy can materially affect term premia in bond markets, even without large-scale asset purchases.
Economic Review
The Changing Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation
By Willem Van Zandweghe Economic Review The labor force participation rate has become more sensitive to the business cycle.The Changing Input-Output Network Structure of the U.S. Economy
By Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi Economic Review U.S. industries have become less connected over the last 10 years, and service industries have become more central.Lifting the U.S. Crude Oil Export Ban: Prospects for Increasing Oil Market Efficiency
By Nida Cakir Melek and Elena Ojeda Economic Review Repealing the U.S. ban on crude oil exports led to increased trade and efficiency in the oil market.How Do FOMC Projections Affect Policy Uncertainty?
By Brent Bundick and Trenton Herriford Economic Review Measures of uncertainty fell after the FOMC began releasing its interest rate projections; however, uncertainty is significantly correlated with disagreement across participants’ projections.Bond Premiums and the Natural Real Rate of Interest
By Craig S. Hakkio and A. Lee Smith Economic Review No, it’s not pirate lingo, it’s the natural real interest rate, or r*. It turns out that bond premiums are an important determinant of r*.Main Street Views
View all of our research on macroeconomics, monetary policy, payments, banking, regional and community issues in one location.
The Center for the Advancement of Data and Research in Economics
CADRE provides high performance computing capabilities and research data management and curation services to the research community.
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
Our annual symposium draws central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world. The proceedings include papers, commentaries and discussions.
About the Symposium | Archive
Monetary Policy & Macroeconomics
Issues of importance to the Federal Reserve, including financial markets, banking, monetary policy and more.
Banking, Payments & Financial Markets
Issues affecting the banking and payments industries.
