Recent Research

Driver of Choice? The Cost of Financial Products for Unbanked Consumers

By Fumiko Hayashi, Josh Hanson and Jesse Leigh Maniff

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERPrepaid cards are significantly less costly than checking accounts for unbanked consumers who make overdrafts or need short-term loans, but prepaid cards are more costly for the other unbanked consumers.

Did Saving Wall Street Really Save Main Street? The Real Effects of TARP on Local Economic Conditions

By Raluca Roman and Allen N. Berger

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERTARP significantly increased net job creation and net business hiring and decreased business and personal bankruptcies. These results suggest saving Wall Street through TARP may have helped save Main Street, contributing to the TARP cost-benefit debate.

Robust Permanent Income in General Equilibrium

By Jun Nie, Yulei Luo and Eric R. Young

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERHow do concerns about possible model misspecifications influence the equilibrium real interest rate?

The Puzzle of Payments Security: Fitting the Pieces Together to Protect the Retail Payments System

By Terri Bradford
PAYMENTS SYSTEM RESEARCH BRIEFINGThis Briefing article offers highlights from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's fifth international payments conference, "The Puzzle of Retail Payments Security: Fitting the Pieces Together to Protect the Retail Payments System," hosted June 25-26, 2015.

Cash Flow and Risk Premium Dynamics in an Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Model with Recursive Preferences

By Taeyoung Doh and Shu Wu

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERA nonlinear extension of an equilibrium asset-pricing model based on long-run consumption risks allows us to more plausibly predict future cash flows and asset returns by stock prices.

Long-Term Survey-Based Inflation Expectations Have Become Better Anchored

By Craig S. Hakkio
The Macro Bulletin Craig S. Hakkio finds that while the median of some long-term inflation forecasts has declined, the distribution of individual forecasts suggests long-term inflation expectations have in fact become better anchored.

Did Bank Borrowers Benefit from the TARP Program? The Effects of TARP on Loan Contract Terms

By Allen N. Berger, Tanakorn Makaew, and Raluca A. Roman
RESEARCH WORKING PAPERTARP led to more favorable credit terms to customers borrowing from the recipient banks in all five contract terms studied: loan amounts, spreads, maturities, collateral, and covenants. Benefits extended primarily to safer borrowers, and borrowers with and without a relationship.

Health Care Reform or Labor Market Reform? A Quantitative Analysis of the Affordable Care Act

By Makoto Nakajima and Didem Tüzemen
Research Working Paper Analysis of the ACA predicts a significant reduction in the uninsured rate and gains in welfare. The reform may weaken the link between full-time work and health insurance, leading to 2.1M more part-time and 1.6M fewer full-time workers, with a small reduction in total hours.

Global Capital Flows from China

By Jun Nie and Nicholas Sly
The Macro Bulletin Jun Nie and Nicholas Sly examine recent trends in capital flows from China and the implications for the United States.

Economic Review

Sentiment of the FOMC: Unscripted

By San Cannon

San Cannon applies text-mining techniques to FOMC transcripts to identify patterns in Committee discourse over time as well as changes in the relationship between participants' tone and economic activity.

Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility

By Troy DavigNida Çakır MelekJun NieA. Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen 
Troy Davig, Nida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin

Has Forward Guidance Been Effective?

By A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker
A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker compare forward guidance announcements with changes in the effective federal funds rate and find the two policy measures have had similar macroeconomic effects. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin

Monetary Policy Shocks and Aggregate Supply

By Willem Van Zandweghe
Willem Van Zandweghe examines whether monetary policy has had long-lasting effects on labor productivity and potential output. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Has the U.S. Economy Become Less Interest Rate Sensitive?

By Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao
Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao investigate shifts in the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates by examining how total employment responds to changes in monetary policy. 

The Response of Employment to Changes in Oil and Gas Exploration and Drilling

By Jason Brown
Jason Brown examines how the recent period of declining oil prices has affected employment in oil- and gas-producing states.

Millennials, Baby Boomers, and Rebounding Multifamily Home Construction

By Jordan Rappaport
Jordan Rappaport analyzes the forces driving the recent rebound in multifamily construction. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Commemorating 100 Years of Research

By Esther L. George
This year, the Kansas City Fed will commemorate the centennial of its flagship research publication, the Economic Review. Esther L. George, the Bank's President and Chief Executive Officer, highlights how the publication has evolved over time.

Should Monetary Policy Monitor Risk Premiums in Financial Markets?

By Taeyoung Doh, Guangye Cao and Daniel Molling
The authors examine whether risk premiums can predict future economic growth and whether monetary policy can influence risk premiums. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

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Issues of importance to the Federal Reserve, including financial markets, banking, monetary policy and more.

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