Recent Research

LMCI suggest the level of activity increased and momentum remained high in July

August 09, 2017
Labor Market Conditions Indicators Activity increased and momentum remained high.

Trend and Uncertainty in the Long-Term Real Interest Rate: Bayesian Exponential Tilting with Survey Data

By Taeyoung Doh
July 28, 2017
Research Working Paper New estimates of trend inflation and interest rates suggest the economy has not permanently shifted to a low-growth and low-inflation regime.

Subsiding Headwinds from the Strong Dollar: Evidence from Producer Prices along the Supply Chain

By George A. Kahn and Nicholas Sly
July 13, 2017
The Macro Bulletin The foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar has stabilized, and producer prices are rising, especially at early stages of the supply chain.

Labor market conditions suggest the level of activity declined and momentum remained high in June

July 12, 2017
Labor Market Conditions Indicators Activity declined and momentum remains high.

Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and the Term Premium

By Brent Bundick, A. Lee Smith and Trenton Herriford
July 12, 2017
Research Working Paper Forward guidance about future monetary policy can materially affect term premia in bond markets, even without large-scale asset purchases.

Economic Review

The Changing Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation

By Willem Van Zandweghe Economic Review The labor force participation rate has become more sensitive to the business cycle.

The Changing Input-Output Network Structure of the U.S. Economy

By Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi Economic Review U.S. industries have become less connected over the last 10 years, and service industries have become more central.

Lifting the U.S. Crude Oil Export Ban: Prospects for Increasing Oil Market Efficiency

By Nida Cakir Melek and Elena Ojeda Economic Review Repealing the U.S. ban on crude oil exports led to increased trade and efficiency in the oil market.

How Do FOMC Projections Affect Policy Uncertainty?

By Brent Bundick and Trenton Herriford Economic Review Measures of uncertainty fell after the FOMC began releasing its interest rate projections; however, uncertainty is significantly correlated with disagreement across participants’ projections.

Bond Premiums and the Natural Real Rate of Interest

By Craig S. Hakkio and A. Lee Smith Economic Review No, it’s not pirate lingo, it’s the natural real interest rate, or r*. It turns out that bond premiums are an important determinant of r*.
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Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium

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