Does the Recent Decline in Household Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Signal a Loss of Confidence in the FOMC?By A. Lee Smith, Brent Bundick, Trenton Herriford and Emily Pollard THE MACRO BULLETINHouseholds have lowered their longer-term inflation outlooks, but they appear confident in the FOMC’s ability to achieve stable prices.
Do Bank Bailouts Reduce or Increase Systemic Risk? The Effects of TARP on Financial System StabilityBy Raluca A. Roman, Allen N. Berger and John Sedunov RESEARCH WORKING PAPERThe TARP bailout significantly reduced contributions to systemic risk, particularly for large banks, safe banks, and banks located in strong local economies. These reductions occurred primarily through a capital cushion channel.
Jordan Rappaport finds factors related to population, population density, and centralized employment have driven much of the recent variation in multifamily construction across metros.Additional files: Data Supplement
Taeyoung Doh and Jason Choi propose a new “shadow” short-term interest rate to measure the stance of policy when the federal funds rate was constrained by the zero lower bound.Additional files: Data Supplement