August 09, 2017Labor Market Conditions Indicators Activity increased and momentum remained high.
Trend and Uncertainty in the Long-Term Real Interest Rate: Bayesian Exponential Tilting with Survey DataBy Taeyoung Doh
July 28, 2017Research Working Paper New estimates of trend inflation and interest rates suggest the economy has not permanently shifted to a low-growth and low-inflation regime.
George A. Kahn and Nicholas Sly
July 13, 2017The Macro Bulletin The foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar has stabilized, and producer prices are rising, especially at early stages of the supply chain.
July 12, 2017Labor Market Conditions Indicators Activity declined and momentum remains high.
Brent Bundick, A. Lee Smith and Trenton Herriford
July 12, 2017Research Working Paper Forward guidance about future monetary policy can materially affect term premia in bond markets, even without large-scale asset purchases.
Willem Van Zandweghe Economic Review The labor force participation rate has become more sensitive to the business cycle.
Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi Economic Review U.S. industries have become less connected over the last 10 years, and service industries have become more central.
Nida Cakir Melek and Elena Ojeda Economic Review Repealing the U.S. ban on crude oil exports led to increased trade and efficiency in the oil market.
Brent Bundick and Trenton Herriford Economic Review Measures of uncertainty fell after the FOMC began releasing its interest rate projections; however, uncertainty is significantly correlated with disagreement across participants’ projections.
Craig S. Hakkio and A. Lee Smith Economic Review No, it’s not pirate lingo, it’s the natural real interest rate, or r*. It turns out that bond premiums are an important determinant of r*.