Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Research
As economic growth slows, job postings are likely to decline, raising unemployment and dampening wage growth.
Differences in households’ risk assessments help explain differences in households’ consumption responses during the Great...
During the pandemic, forecasting innovations did not improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts relative to baseline models.
Failing to account for concurrent changes in the FOMC’s forward guidance could overstate the effects of asset purchase programs.
A widening distribution of household inflation expectations may signal that median inflation expectations will increase.
Supply chain disruptions from China’s current COVID-19 restrictions are likely to be less severe than in 2020.