Our monetary policy and macroeconomic research focuses on national and international economic issues.

Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Research

Latest Research

Economic Bulletin

A Slowdown in Job Vacancies Is Likely to Coincide with Higher Unemployment and Slower Wage Growth

As economic growth slows, job postings are likely to decline, raising unemployment and dampening wage growth.

Research Working Paper

Attention Allocation and Heterogenous Consumption Responses

Differences in households’ risk assessments help explain differences in households’ consumption responses during the Great...

Economic Review

Cutting-Edge Methods Did Not Improve Inflation Forecasting during the COVID-19 Pandemic

During the pandemic, forecasting innovations did not improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts relative to baseline models.

Economic Bulletin

Assessing Market Conditions ahead of Quantitative Tightening

Reducing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet may be more disruptive to markets in 2022 than it was in 2017.

Economic Bulletin

Inflation in 1972: A Cautionary Tale

Monetary policymakers today can learn from the FOMC’s struggle to curb inflation in the early 1970s.

Economic Review

Evaluating Quantitative Easing: The Importance of Accounting for Forward Guidance

Failing to account for concurrent changes in the FOMC’s forward guidance could overstate the effects of asset purchase programs.

Economic Bulletin

Disagreement among Households May Foreshadow a Rise in Inflation Expectations

A widening distribution of household inflation expectations may signal that median inflation expectations will increase.

Economic Bulletin

How Has the Current Lockdown in China Affected the Global Supply Chain?

Supply chain disruptions from China’s current COVID-19 restrictions are likely to be less severe than in 2020.

Economic Bulletin

How Many Workers Are Truly “Missing” from the Labor Force?

Around 2 million workers are missing from the labor force relative to the pre-pandemic trend.