Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Research

Our monetary policy and macroeconomic research focuses on national and international economic issues.

Latest Research

Economic Bulletin

The LMCI Momentum Indicator Suggests Monetary Policy Is Beginning to Weigh on Labor Markets

The LMCI momentum indicator turned negative in November 2022, a sign that the labor market may be softening.

Economic Review

How Much Have Record Corporate Profits Contributed to Recent Inflation?

Firms raised markups during 2021 in anticipation of future cost pressures, contributing substantially to inflation.

Research Working Paper

Employer Credit Checks: Poverty Traps versus Matching Efficiency

Banning pre-employment credit screening may help people improve bad credit scores but may reduce firms’ overall productivity.

Economic Bulletin

Have Lags in Monetary Policy Transmission Shortened?

Using monetary policy tools beyond the federal funds rate may have shortened the lag in policy transmission since 2009.

Economic Bulletin

Is Bank Capital Regulation Driving Continued Use of the ON RRP Facility?

Limited investment opportunities, policy uncertainty, and administrative changes likely explain increases in ON RRP use.

Economic Review

Lifetime Earnings Differences across Black and White Individuals: Years Worked Matter

Black individuals earn about one-third less than white individuals over the course of their lifetimes.

Economic Review

The Evolving Role of the Fed’s Balance Sheet: Effects and Challenges

Shrinking the Federal Reserve’s expanded balance sheet will likely be a gradual process.

Economic Review

Can Higher Gasoline Prices Set Off an Inflationary Spiral?

When inflation is already high, an increase in gasoline prices can have an amplified effect on consumers’ inflation expectations.

Economic Bulletin

Negative Sentiment toward Spending and Declining Real Incomes May Meaningfully Lower Consumption

Households have continued to make purchases despite very negative sentiment toward spending—but this behavior will likely change.