Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Research

Our monetary policy and macroeconomic research focuses on national and international economic issues.

Latest Research

Economic Review

Understanding State and Local Government Spending over the Business Cycle

Since the mid-1980s, state and local government spending has followed a consistently procyclical pattern, declining during...

Economic Bulletin

Corporate Profits Contributed a Lot to Inflation in 2021 but Little in 2022

Corporate profits contributed a similar amount to inflation during the pandemic recovery as in past recoveries.

Research Working Paper

R&D Capital and the Idea Production Function

Developing new ideas requires not only researchers but also R&D capital—that is, targeted investment in research equipment.

Research Working Paper

Janus’s Money Demand and Time Inconsistency: A New Impossibility Theorem?

A new model of money demand incorporates consumers’ past and future habits to shed light on time inconsistency in monetary policy.

Economic Bulletin

Will High Underlying Inflation Persist?

Underlying (or prevailing) inflation could near 2 percent next year if current inflation forecasts are realized.

Research Working Paper

Equilibrium Evictions

Restricting landlords’ ability to evict may reduce housing supply, so paying delinquent tenants’ rent is a better policy.

Economic Review

The Implications of Unrealized Losses for Banks

Lower securities valuations have reduced banks’ liquidity and capital, potentially dampening loan growth.

Economic Bulletin

Why Has Monetary Policy Tightening Not Cooled the Labor Market Enough to Quell Inflation?

Labor markets in the services sector are less sensitive to changes in interest rates.

Economic Bulletin

When the Music Stops: Slowing Wage Growth May Lead to More Delinquent Debt

Should wage growth slow, delinquency rates are likely to rise, particularly for subprime borrowers with auto debt.