Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Research
Our monetary policy and macroeconomic research focuses on national and international economic issues.
Latest Research
Monetary Policy Transmission, Bank Market Power, and Income Source
Banks can maintain lower deposit rates due to market power in financial services.
Community Banks Have Maintained Profitability in a High-Interest Rate Environment
Banks that rebalanced their assets and retained stable deposit bases were more profitable during recent interest rate hikes.
Subprime Credit Card Delinquencies Have Fallen
The subprime credit card delinquency rate declined recently alongside subprime credit card purchases and annual percentage rates.
Labor Market Cooling Has Been Uneven Across Industries
A more detailed version of the KC Fed LMCI shows pockets of tightness and weakness in some industries.
KC Fed LMCI Can Help Sift Out Noise in Payroll Data
The KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators offer a cleaner picture of payroll growth than official measures.
Maintaining the Anchor: An Evaluation of Inflation Targeting in the Face of COVID-19
Globally, central banks prevented high inflation post-pandemic from becoming embedded in inflation expectations.
How Do Financial Markets Perceive the Balance of Risks to the Policy Rate?
A new measure of policy rate skew suggests that market-perceived risks to the interest rate outlook are roughly in balance.
Consumer Credit Cards Show Few Signs of Financial Stress
Despite higher interest rates, consumer credit markets show limited evidence of stress, even among subprime borrowers.
The Future of U.S. Productivity: Cautious Optimism amid Uncertainty
Recent productivity growth likely reflects both cyclical and structural factors, including remote work and AI.