Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Research
Our monetary policy and macroeconomic research focuses on national and international economic issues.
Latest Research
Understanding State and Local Government Spending over the Business Cycle
Since the mid-1980s, state and local government spending has followed a consistently procyclical pattern, declining during...
Corporate Profits Contributed a Lot to Inflation in 2021 but Little in 2022
Corporate profits contributed a similar amount to inflation during the pandemic recovery as in past recoveries.
R&D Capital and the Idea Production Function
Developing new ideas requires not only researchers but also R&D capital—that is, targeted investment in research equipment.
Janus’s Money Demand and Time Inconsistency: A New Impossibility Theorem?
A new model of money demand incorporates consumers’ past and future habits to shed light on time inconsistency in monetary policy.
Will High Underlying Inflation Persist?
Underlying (or prevailing) inflation could near 2 percent next year if current inflation forecasts are realized.
Equilibrium Evictions
Restricting landlords’ ability to evict may reduce housing supply, so paying delinquent tenants’ rent is a better policy.
The Implications of Unrealized Losses for Banks
Lower securities valuations have reduced banks’ liquidity and capital, potentially dampening loan growth.
Why Has Monetary Policy Tightening Not Cooled the Labor Market Enough to Quell Inflation?
Labor markets in the services sector are less sensitive to changes in interest rates.
When the Music Stops: Slowing Wage Growth May Lead to More Delinquent Debt
Should wage growth slow, delinquency rates are likely to rise, particularly for subprime borrowers with auto debt.