Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Research

Our monetary policy and macroeconomic research focuses on national and international economic issues.

Latest Research

Economic Bulletin
A Historical Analysis of the Federal Income Tax

Although income taxes have been the main source of U.S. government revenue for a century, tariffs once played a greater role.

Economic Bulletin | Banking and Finance | Law and Economics | Macroeconomics
Research Working Paper
Fixed Costs in the U.S. Banking System

Since the 1990s, banks’ fixed costs have increased substantially while marginal and average costs have declined.

Research Working Paper | Banking and Finance | Data and Trends | Macroeconomics
Research Working Paper
A Dual Mandate Can Support Price Stability

A dual mandate that includes promoting maximum employment can enhance a central bank’s ability to achieve price stability.

Research Working Paper | Inflation | Macroeconomics | Monetary Policy
Research Working Paper
Cautious Careers: Job Mobility Under Incomplete Markets

Without unemployment insurance, workers frequently stay put in safe but lower-productivity jobs and reject risky high-wage jobs.

Research Working Paper | Data and Trends | Labor and Demographics | Macroeconomics | Quantitative Methods
Research Working Paper
The Dynamic Distribution in the Fixed Cost Model: An Analytical Solution

A new method for analyzing dynamic distributions predicts an investment boom and lull after AI accelerates growth.

Research Working Paper | Macroeconomics | Quantitative Methods
Research Working Paper
Is the AI Boom Volatility-Biased Technological Change?

The AI boom is concentrated in the most volatile sectors of the U.S. economy and could keep volatility elevated going forward.

Research Working Paper | AI | Labor and Demographics | Macroeconomics
Research Working Paper
Rethinking Central Bank LSAPs: The Power of Market Functioning Purchases

New research shows how operationally similar central bank asset purchases can have markedly different effects.

Research Working Paper | Banking and Finance | Monetary Policy
Economic Bulletin
After Recent Oil Shocks, Inflation Expectations Have Stabilized Only Once Monetary Policy Tightened

Monetary policy may play a role in stabilizing inflation expectations after an oil shock.

Economic Bulletin | Inflation | Monetary Policy | Natural Resources and Environment
Economic Bulletin
Is the U.S. Labor Force Nearing Its Peak?

An aging population, lower immigration, and high labor participation rates together suggest the labor force is near its peak.

Economic Bulletin | Labor and Demographics | Macroeconomics
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