Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Research
Latest Research
A Slowdown in Job Vacancies Is Likely to Coincide with Higher Unemployment and Slower Wage Growth
As economic growth slows, job postings are likely to decline, raising unemployment and dampening wage growth.
Attention Allocation and Heterogenous Consumption Responses
Differences in households’ risk assessments help explain differences in households’ consumption responses during the Great...
Cutting-Edge Methods Did Not Improve Inflation Forecasting during the COVID-19 Pandemic
During the pandemic, forecasting innovations did not improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts relative to baseline models.
Assessing Market Conditions ahead of Quantitative Tightening
Reducing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet may be more disruptive to markets in 2022 than it was in 2017.
Inflation in 1972: A Cautionary Tale
Monetary policymakers today can learn from the FOMC’s struggle to curb inflation in the early 1970s.
Evaluating Quantitative Easing: The Importance of Accounting for Forward Guidance
Failing to account for concurrent changes in the FOMC’s forward guidance could overstate the effects of asset purchase programs.
Disagreement among Households May Foreshadow a Rise in Inflation Expectations
A widening distribution of household inflation expectations may signal that median inflation expectations will increase.
How Has the Current Lockdown in China Affected the Global Supply Chain?
Supply chain disruptions from China’s current COVID-19 restrictions are likely to be less severe than in 2020.
How Many Workers Are Truly “Missing” from the Labor Force?
Around 2 million workers are missing from the labor force relative to the pre-pandemic trend.