Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Research

An aging population, lower immigration, and high labor participation rates together suggest the labor force is near its peak.

We examine how federal debt management decisions transmit to financial markets and the broader economy.

A new method assesses how the costs firms incur to adjust their prices determine inflation and affect monetary policy.

Estimates with new time series methods suggest households act as if they will bear only a fraction of outstanding government debt.

AI adoption aligns with faster productivity growth across industries but has yet to explain the aggregate gain in productivity.

A muted monetary policy response may explain inflation persistence during 2021–22.

Community college enrollment has fallen since 2010, driven mainly by demand factors.

The Kansas City Fed’s measures of r* and u* provide more timely data on labor market tightness and the stance of monetary policy.

Larger firms are more likely to use AI to set prices, and firms that have adopted AI have grown larger and more profitable.