Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Research
Our monetary policy and macroeconomic research focuses on national and international economic issues.
Latest Research
The LMCI Momentum Indicator Suggests Monetary Policy Is Beginning to Weigh on Labor Markets
The LMCI momentum indicator turned negative in November 2022, a sign that the labor market may be softening.
How Much Have Record Corporate Profits Contributed to Recent Inflation?
Firms raised markups during 2021 in anticipation of future cost pressures, contributing substantially to inflation.
Employer Credit Checks: Poverty Traps versus Matching Efficiency
Banning pre-employment credit screening may help people improve bad credit scores but may reduce firms’ overall productivity.
Have Lags in Monetary Policy Transmission Shortened?
Using monetary policy tools beyond the federal funds rate may have shortened the lag in policy transmission since 2009.
Is Bank Capital Regulation Driving Continued Use of the ON RRP Facility?
Limited investment opportunities, policy uncertainty, and administrative changes likely explain increases in ON RRP use.
Lifetime Earnings Differences across Black and White Individuals: Years Worked Matter
Black individuals earn about one-third less than white individuals over the course of their lifetimes.
The Evolving Role of the Fed’s Balance Sheet: Effects and Challenges
Shrinking the Federal Reserve’s expanded balance sheet will likely be a gradual process.
Can Higher Gasoline Prices Set Off an Inflationary Spiral?
When inflation is already high, an increase in gasoline prices can have an amplified effect on consumers’ inflation expectations.
Negative Sentiment toward Spending and Declining Real Incomes May Meaningfully Lower Consumption
Households have continued to make purchases despite very negative sentiment toward spending—but this behavior will likely change.