Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Research
Our monetary policy and macroeconomic research focuses on national and international economic issues.
Latest Research
The Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Belief Distortions: Model-Free Evidence
Data suggest that monetary policy should ease to offset inflation over-pessimism among households.
Is It Time to Add Food-at-Home Inflation to Measures of Core Inflation?
Many of the drawbacks of including food inflation in measures of core inflation appear to have diminished since the 1970s.
Forecasting with Feelings: The Modest Link Between Consumer Sentiment and Spending
Accounting for consumer sentiment does not significantly alter forecasts of household spending.
Monetary Policy Transmission, Bank Market Power, and Income Source
Banks can maintain lower deposit rates due to market power in financial services.
Community Banks Have Maintained Profitability in a High-Interest Rate Environment
Banks that rebalanced their assets and retained stable deposit bases were more profitable during recent interest rate hikes.
Subprime Credit Card Delinquencies Have Fallen
The subprime credit card delinquency rate declined recently alongside subprime credit card purchases and annual percentage rates.
Labor Market Cooling Has Been Uneven Across Industries
A more detailed version of the KC Fed LMCI shows pockets of tightness and weakness in some industries.
KC Fed LMCI Can Help Sift Out Noise in Payroll Data
The KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators offer a cleaner picture of payroll growth than official measures.
Maintaining the Anchor: An Evaluation of Inflation Targeting in the Face of COVID-19
Globally, central banks prevented high inflation post-pandemic from becoming embedded in inflation expectations.