Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Research

Our monetary policy and macroeconomic research focuses on national and international economic issues.

Latest Research

Research Working Paper

The Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Belief Distortions: Model-Free Evidence

Data suggest that monetary policy should ease to offset inflation over-pessimism among households.

Research Working Paper | Macroeconomics | Monetary Policy
Economic Bulletin

Is It Time to Add Food-at-Home Inflation to Measures of Core Inflation?

Many of the drawbacks of including food inflation in measures of core inflation appear to have diminished since the 1970s.

Economic Bulletin | Inflation | Monetary Policy | Agriculture
Economic Bulletin

Forecasting with Feelings: The Modest Link Between Consumer Sentiment and Spending

Accounting for consumer sentiment does not significantly alter forecasts of household spending.

Economic Bulletin | Macroeconomics | Data and Trends
Research Working Paper

Monetary Policy Transmission, Bank Market Power, and Income Source

Banks can maintain lower deposit rates due to market power in financial services.

Research Working Paper | Banking and Finance | Monetary Policy | Payments | Quantitative Methods
Economic Bulletin

Community Banks Have Maintained Profitability in a High-Interest Rate Environment

Banks that rebalanced their assets and retained stable deposit bases were more profitable during recent interest rate hikes.

Economic Bulletin | Banking and Finance | Monetary Policy
Economic Bulletin

Subprime Credit Card Delinquencies Have Fallen

The subprime credit card delinquency rate declined recently alongside subprime credit card purchases and annual percentage rates.

Economic Bulletin | Banking and Finance | Monetary Policy
Economic Bulletin

Labor Market Cooling Has Been Uneven Across Industries

A more detailed version of the KC Fed LMCI shows pockets of tightness and weakness in some industries.

Economic Bulletin | Labor and Demographics | Data and Trends | Monetary Policy | Inflation
Economic Bulletin

KC Fed LMCI Can Help Sift Out Noise in Payroll Data

The KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators offer a cleaner picture of payroll growth than official measures.

Economic Bulletin | Data and Trends | Labor and Demographics | Macroeconomics
Research Working Paper

Maintaining the Anchor: An Evaluation of Inflation Targeting in the Face of COVID-19

Globally, central banks prevented high inflation post-pandemic from becoming embedded in inflation expectations.

Research Working Paper | Covid-19 Research | Inflation | Macroeconomics | Monetary Policy
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