Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Research
Our monetary policy and macroeconomic research focuses on national and international economic issues.
Latest Research
Heterogeneity in Household Inflation Expectations: Policy Implications
A tightening in monetary policy can lower inflation expectations even among households whose expectations are especially high.
Testing Hybrid Forecasts for Imports and Exports
During times of stress, hybrid forecasts outperform pure model-based forecasts over short horizons.
Are Firms Hoarding Cash Post-Pandemic?
Firms are holding more cash now than before the pandemic, but their reasons for holding it remain the same.
Young Workers Fuel Recovery in Jobs Requiring a High School Diploma or Less
The recent shift toward younger workers in the labor force could affect the productive capacity of the economy.
Despite High Inflation, Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Remain Well Anchored
Higher-than-expected core inflation in recent years does not appear to be increasing longer-term inflation expectations.
Consumer Debt Is High, but Consumers Seem to Have Room to Run
Debt-to-income measures are historically low, suggesting consumers may be able to take on more debt without stressing finances.
Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy
Worker mobility played a key role in shaping inflation dynamics during the Great Recession and COVID-19 recoveries.
Current Monetary Policy May Be Less Restrictive Than It Seems
Lowering inflation to 2 percent may require monetary policy to remain restrictive for some time.
Foreign-Born Women Have Driven the Recent Increase in Prime-Age Women in the Labor Force
The labor force of prime-age (25 to 54) women has rebounded since the pandemic, driven by foreign-born women.