Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Research

Our monetary policy and macroeconomic research focuses on national and international economic issues.

Latest Research

Research Working Paper

Should I Stay or Should I Go? Inter-state Mobility and Earnings Gains of Young College Graduates

Lower earnings gains and higher initial debt help explain why young college graduates are less likely to move across state lines.

Economic Bulletin

Labor Shortages in the Healthcare Sector Have Eased, Which May Soften Price Pressures

Lower wage growth may limit price pressures in the healthcare sector.

Economic Bulletin

Why Haven’t Recent Rate Increases Slowed the Economy More?

Low private-lending spreads may explain why borrowers haven’t been deterred by rate hikes.

Research Working Paper

Heterogeneity in Household Inflation Expectations: Policy Implications

A tightening in monetary policy can lower inflation expectations even among households whose expectations are especially high.

Economic Review

Testing Hybrid Forecasts for Imports and Exports

During times of stress, hybrid forecasts outperform pure model-based forecasts over short horizons.

Economic Bulletin

Are Firms Hoarding Cash Post-Pandemic?

Firms are holding more cash now than before the pandemic, but their reasons for holding it remain the same.

Economic Bulletin

Young Workers Fuel Recovery in Jobs Requiring a High School Diploma or Less

The recent shift toward younger workers in the labor force could affect the productive capacity of the economy.

Despite High Inflation, Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Remain Well Anchored

Higher-than-expected core inflation in recent years does not appear to be increasing longer-term inflation expectations.

Economic Bulletin

Consumer Debt Is High, but Consumers Seem to Have Room to Run

Debt-to-income measures are historically low, suggesting consumers may be able to take on more debt without stressing finances.