Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Research

Without unemployment insurance, workers frequently stay put in safe but lower-productivity jobs and reject risky high-wage jobs.

A new method for analyzing dynamic distributions predicts an investment boom and lull after AI accelerates growth.

The AI boom is concentrated in the most volatile sectors of the U.S. economy and could keep volatility elevated going forward.

New research shows how operationally similar central bank asset purchases can have markedly different effects.

Monetary policy may play a role in stabilizing inflation expectations after an oil shock.

An aging population, lower immigration, and high labor participation rates together suggest the labor force is near its peak.

We examine how federal debt management decisions transmit to financial markets and the broader economy.

A new method assesses how the costs firms incur to adjust their prices determine inflation and affect monetary policy.

Estimates with new time series methods suggest households act as if they will bear only a fraction of outstanding government debt.