Working papers covering a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, payment methods, banking and more.

Research Working Papers

Working papers covering a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, payment methods, banking and more.

Recent Papers

Local Projections, Autocorrelation, and Efficiency

A more accurate estimator of causal effects may help economists better evaluate how monetary policy affects the economy.

The Financial Market Effects of Unwinding the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet

The gradual unwinding of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet from 2017 to 2019 tightened financial conditions, though this...

Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies

Minimum wage increases during the 2005–18 period led to declines in vacancy postings among occupations with wages at or near...

Market Integration and Bank Risk-Taking

Increased bank competition from market integration affects banks’ risk-taking behavior in ways beyond a simple increase in the...

Mining for Oil Forecasts

Forecasting oil market outcomes remains a challenge even with novel text-based analysis.

Flight to Liquidity or Safety? Recent Evidence from the Municipal Bond Market

Policy interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic stabilized the municipal bond market and shifted the pricing of localized...