Research Working Papers
Working papers cover a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, payment methods, banking and more.
Recent Papers
Threshold Endogeneity in Threshold VARs: An Application to Monetary State Dependence
A new method refines the threshold vector autoregressive model used to study the effects of monetary policy.
Which Types of Unbanked Households Are More (or Less) Likely to Open a Bank Account?
Unbanked households are more likely to open a bank account if they had one before and have access to digital payment methods.
Understanding Models and Model Bias with Gaussian Processes
Using counterfactual reasoning and Gaussian process models can help detect bias in machine learning models.
Drought and Cattle: Implications for Ranchers
Drought has a temporary positive effect on rancher revenues, but a negative effect on cattle herd sizes and earnings.
R&D Capital and the Idea Production Function
Developing new ideas requires not only researchers but also R&D capital—that is, targeted investment in research equipment.
Janus’s Money Demand and Time Inconsistency: A New Impossibility Theorem?
A new model of money demand incorporates consumers’ past and future habits to shed light on time inconsistency in monetary policy.
Equilibrium Evictions
Restricting landlords’ ability to evict may reduce housing supply, so paying delinquent tenants’ rent is a better policy.
The Missing Tail Risk in Option Prices
Investors in the oil market consistently underestimate the likelihood of very low oil prices.
Employer Credit Checks: Poverty Traps versus Matching Efficiency
Banning pre-employment credit screening may help people improve bad credit scores but may reduce firms’ overall productivity.
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