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Research Working Papers

Working papers cover a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, payment methods, banking and more.

Recent Papers

Research Working Paper

Threshold Endogeneity in Threshold VARs: An Application to Monetary State Dependence

A new method refines the threshold vector autoregressive model used to study the effects of monetary policy.

Research Working Paper

Which Types of Unbanked Households Are More (or Less) Likely to Open a Bank Account?

Unbanked households are more likely to open a bank account if they had one before and have access to digital payment methods.

Research Working Paper

Understanding Models and Model Bias with Gaussian Processes

Using counterfactual reasoning and Gaussian process models can help detect bias in machine learning models.

Research Working Paper

Drought and Cattle: Implications for Ranchers

Drought has a temporary positive effect on rancher revenues, but a negative effect on cattle herd sizes and earnings.

Research Working Paper

R&D Capital and the Idea Production Function

Developing new ideas requires not only researchers but also R&D capital—that is, targeted investment in research equipment.

Research Working Paper

Janus’s Money Demand and Time Inconsistency: A New Impossibility Theorem?

A new model of money demand incorporates consumers’ past and future habits to shed light on time inconsistency in monetary policy.

Research Working Paper

Equilibrium Evictions

Restricting landlords’ ability to evict may reduce housing supply, so paying delinquent tenants’ rent is a better policy.

Research Working Paper

The Missing Tail Risk in Option Prices

Investors in the oil market consistently underestimate the likelihood of very low oil prices.

Research Working Paper

Employer Credit Checks: Poverty Traps versus Matching Efficiency

Banning pre-employment credit screening may help people improve bad credit scores but may reduce firms’ overall productivity.