High Costs and Uncertainty Will Likely Keep Cattle Inventories Low and Beef Prices Elevated for Some Time
Food-at-home inflation has ticked up in 2026, driven partly by higher beef prices. Beef prices have increased as U.S. consumption of beef has outpaced domestic supply. Despite favorable market signals, supply constraints may keep beef prices elevated for some time. Growing uncertainty in the conditions for raising cattle have prevented ranchers from meaningfully expanding herds to increase domestic supply. Continued uncertainty may stall herd rebuilding, further constraining the beef supply and driving up prices.
Regional
Economic Bulletin
Agriculture
Inflation
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Francisco Scott
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August 5, 2026
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In Recent Years, Inflation Expectations Increased After Oil Shocks and Stabilized Only Once Monetary Policy Tightened
Historically, U.S. households’ expectations for future inflation remained anchored after an oil price shock without significantly tighter monetary policy. Since 2010, however, oil price shocks have led household inflation expectations to increase more persistently, and expectations have only normalized after monetary policy tightened. This recent experience suggests monetary policy may play a role in stabilizing expectations after a shock.
Natural Resources and Environment
Monetary Policy
Economic Bulletin
Inflation
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Andrew Glover
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July 8, 2026
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Is the U.S. Labor Force Nearing Its Peak?
Despite an aging population, the U.S. labor force has grown substantially from pre-pandemic levels. Thus far, strong labor force participation rates and immigration flows have more than offset downward pressure from an increasing number of retirements. However, the U.S. labor force is likely nearing its peak: Increases in participation rates are unlikely to fully offset headwinds from slowing immigration and continued aging.
Labor and Demographics
Macroeconomics
Economic Bulletin
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Alison Felix
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June 29, 2026
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How Will Drought and Groundwater Depletion Affect Irrigated Farmland Values in the Tenth District?
Irrigated farmland commands a premium relative to non-irrigated farmland due to capitalized infrastructure, access rights to groundwater, and superior yield potential. In the Tenth Federal Reserve District, this premium has been increasing over time and rising faster during droughts. Whether this premium will subsist in the long term, however, depends on existing groundwater reserves, local rates of aquifer replenishment, and continued efficiency gains in water use.
Natural Resources and Environment
Regional
Economic Bulletin
Agriculture
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Ayesha Cooray
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June 24, 2026
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“Future of Banking: Powering Progress, Protecting Trust” Conference Explores Implications of Technological Change
On May 14, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s “Future of Banking: Powering Progress, Protecting Trust” conference brought together more than 100 community bankers to discuss how technology is changing the banking industry. Panelists covered topics ranging from digital assets, fraud, and artificial intelligence (AI) to the future of the community banking industry.
AI
Payments
Events
Community Banking
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Samantha Ahal
Nicholas Baker
Stefan A. Jacewitz
W. Blake Marsh
Stephanie Ziadeh
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June 22, 2026
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Resilience, Not Crisis, in the U.S. Agricultural Economy
Over the past few years, economic conditions in some segments of U.S. agriculture have deteriorated, raising questions about the longer-term trajectory of the sector and the viability of many farms throughout the country. However, the severity of current public narratives surrounding U.S. agriculture diverges from the signals apparent in underlying data.
Regional
Economic Bulletin
Agriculture
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Nate Kauffman
Ty Kreitman
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May 20, 2026
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Deterioration in Farm Financial Conditions Remains Gradual
Despite continued weakness in the crop sector, farm financial conditions have tightened only gradually, and stress remains limited. Loan delinquency rates remain low, average farmland values have been stable, and leverage in the sector remains modest. Direct government payments have limited losses for crop operations and provided modest relief, while strong cattle prices have boosted incomes in many areas.
Agricultural Finance Research
Regional
Economic Bulletin
Agriculture
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Ty Kreitman
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May 13, 2026
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Can Healthcare Labor Supply Keep Up with Aging-Driven Demand?
Demand for healthcare is growing rapidly as the U.S. population ages, with employment in caregiving occupations expanding especially quickly. Women and immigrants have been the primary workers filling these jobs so far. With female labor force participation now at all-time highs and immigration flows expected to remain constrained, healthcare labor supply could struggle to meet demand from an aging population going forward.
Labor and Demographics
Economic Bulletin
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Elior Cohen
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May 1, 2026
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How Banks’ Technology Spending Affects Performance
Over the past two decades, banks have substantially increased their investment in information technology (IT) and data analytics. We estimate the dynamic relationship between IT spending and bank outcomes related to performance. We find that increased IT spending is associated with higher bank profits, increased income from deposit accounts, and lower loan default rates.
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Jordan Pandolfo
Thomas Désiré
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March 6, 2026
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A Break in the Link Between Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations
Gasoline prices and consumers’ inflation expectations often move in similar directions. Indeed, the correlation between the two increased noticeably over the last several decades. In 2025, however, that relationship changed dramatically: Gasoline prices declined, while inflation expectations increased with the prospects of higher prices coming from tariffs. If the historical relationship had persisted, inflation expectations might have been 1.5 percentage points lower throughout 2025.
Natural Resources and Environment
Economic Bulletin
Inflation
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Jason P. Brown
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February 20, 2026
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