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U.S. Agricultural Trade

Ag exports from the United States are on pace to increase in 2026. Find the insight below.

Insights on Agricultural and Rural Economies

Regular updates and concise analysis on agricultural and rural economic trends from the Center for Agriculture and the Economy.

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Agricultural Finance Agriculture Crop and Livestock Sectors Food Prices Natural Resources and Environment Regional Agriculture Rural Economy US Agriculture Clear Filters
10-8-26-Farm-Loan-Performance

Farm Financial Stress Remains Moderate

Agriculture | Agricultural Finance | US Agriculture
10-2-26-Agricultural-Trade

U.S. Agricultural Trade Projected to Increase in 2026

Agriculture | US Agriculture
9-29-26-Fuel-Costs

Fuel Costs Pressure Margins, but Mitigated by Higher Crop Prices

Agriculture | Agricultural Finance | Crop and Livestock Sectors
9-18-26-Meatpacking-Employment

Rural Labor Markets are Likely Disrupted Most When Meatpacking Jobs Relocate

Rural Economy |
Line graph comparing average long-term farmland appreciation and yields on U.S. government securities from 2010 to 2026, showing farmland appreciation is consistently higher than government securities yields.

Long-term Farmland Appreciation May Remain Attractive to Some Buyers

Agriculture | Agricultural Finance
8-19-26-Meat-Prices

Demand for Beef Remains Strong Despite Higher Retail Prices

Food Prices | Crop and Livestock Sectors | Agriculture
Two line charts compare Return on Average Assets and Net Interest Margin for community banks, agricultural banks, and highly concentrated agricultural banks from Mar-16 to Mar-26. All groups show fluctuations and general trends over time.

Earnings Performance at Agricultural Banks Remains Strong

Agriculture | Agricultural Finance
8-6-2026-Ag-Summit

Agricultural Economic Summit Highlights Key Structural Changes Shaping Agriculture

Agriculture | US Agriculture
7-22-26-Hospital-Beds

Consolidation Has Affected Availability of Rural Health Care

Rural Economy
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Farm Financial Stress Remains Moderate

By Nate Kauffman

Farm loan repayment rates have remained slightly weaker than a year ago, but the pace of deterioration has slowed recently alongside a significant increase in crop prices. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s quarterly survey of agricultural credit conditions, the diffusion index for farm loan repayment rates was 82 in the third quarter, indicating some deterioration from a year ago, but not as weak as the previous quarter. Crop prices increased notably from the second quarter to the most recent quarter, with corn and soybean prices up by 8.0% and 7.4%, respectively. The increase in crop prices has led to improved profitability among row crop producers despite large increases in costs associated with diesel.

A line chart titled "U.S Farm Loan Performance" tracks two trends from 2010 to 2026. The blue line (Farm Loan Repayment Rates, left axis) starts moderately high, rises to a peak in the early 2010s, declines to a low around 2016, then surges sharply to its highest levels in 2021-2022, before falling again and showing a slight uptick toward 2026. The green line (Farm Loan Delinquency Rates, right axis) starts relatively high, declines steadily through the mid-2010s, rises modestly in the early 2020s, drops to its lowest point around 2023-2024, and then increases again toward 2026. A dotted horizontal line marks the "Neutral Index Value” of 100 for reference.

Notes: Farm loan delinquency rate data are sourced from the Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Reports) for commercial banks and from Uniform Call Reports filed by agricultural credit associations within the Farm Credit System to the Farm Credit Administration. Farm loan repayment rates are obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Quarterly Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions and displayed as a diffusion index. The index numbers are computed by subtracting the percentage of survey respondents who responded “lower” from the percentage who responded “higher” and adding 100.

Sources: Commercial Bank Reports of Condition and Income; Farm Credit Administration; Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions
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Agricultural Finance

The Center for Agriculture and the Economy at the Kansas City Fed tracks trends in agricultural finance.

Agriculture Agricultural Finance US Agriculture

U.S. Agricultural Trade Projected to Increase in 2026

By Cortney Cowley

Agricultural exports from the United States are on pace to increase in 2026 but may not reach the historically high levels from 2022. Although exports to China increased by nearly 50% in the first half of 2026, the 78% decline from 2022 to 2025 has left a large void in trade of U.S. agricultural products that has been difficult to fill. Agricultural exports to other countries have continued to increase, especially to Mexico. Although Canada remains the second largest trade partner for U.S. agricultural products, growth has been stagnant in that market for four years.

Line chart titled "U.S. Agricultural Exports" displaying export values in billions of dollars from 2000 to 2026. Four categories are tracked: Mexico, Canada, and China (measured on the left axis, 0-45 billion), and World Total and Rest of World (measured on the right axis, 0-225 billion). The chart shows an overall upward trend across all categories from 2000 to around 2022. China's exports show notable volatility, peaking around 2012 and again sharply in 2022 before declining significantly through 2025, then rebounding slightly in 2026. Mexico and Canada show steadier growth, with Mexico surpassing Canada by 2023. The World Total peaks around 2022 near 195 billion dollars, dips afterward, then rises again toward 2026.

Notes: Projected exports for 2026 are based on data from January through July for 2025 and 2026.

Source: USDA GATS and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City staff calculations
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Key Agricultural Trade Partners Are Important for U.S. Farm Sector Revenues and Food Prices

By Ty Kreitman

The U.S. agricultural sector is especially vulnerable to fluctuations in trade with Mexico, Canada, and China.

Agriculture US Agriculture

Fuel Costs Pressure Margins, but Mitigated by Higher Crop Prices

By Ty Kreitman

The recent surge in diesel prices has increased fuel costs for all types of farming operations, but the rise in expenses has also coincided with higher crop prices. Diesel accounts for most overall fuel costs for crop producers and prices in late September were over 75% higher than last year, representing a notable increase in costs alongside fall harvest. However, this amounts to only about $0.11 more per bushel in fuel costs for corn at national average yields, compared to a more than $0.80 increase in corn prices over the same period. Fuel costs for rice are notably higher and that same rise in diesel prices would increase per hundredweight cost by over $1.00, but rice prices have increased by nearly $4.00.

This bar chart shows the change in fuel costs and crop prices, measured in dollars per unit of crop, for five crops. For corn, fuel price is about $0.1 per bushel and crop price is about $0.8 per bushel. Soybeans show a fuel price of around $0.2 per bushel and a crop price of about $2.8 per bushel. Wheat has a fuel price of about $0.2 per bushel and a crop price of about $2.3 per bushel. Cotton shows a fuel price of roughly $0.05 per pound and a crop price of about $0.15 per pound. Rice has the highest fuel price at about $1.2 per hundredweight and a crop price of about $3.8 per hundredweight. Across all crops, crop prices are consistently higher than fuel prices, with rice showing the largest values for both measures.

Note: The chart shows the per unit change in fuel costs and crop prices between September 2026 (month-to-date) and the 2025 average. The per unit costs are calculated by multiplying the national per acre fuel, lube, and electricity cost in 2025 by the percent increase in diesel from 2025 to September 2026 and dividing by the national average yield reported in the September WASDE.

Sources: USDA Cost and Return Estimates, EIA, Wall Street Journal, Barchart.com, and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City staff calculations
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Agricultural Finance

The Center for Agriculture and the Economy at the Kansas City Fed tracks trends in agricultural finance.

Agriculture Agricultural Finance Crop and Livestock Sectors

Rural Labor Markets are Likely Disrupted Most When Meatpacking Jobs Relocate

By John McCoy and Francisco Scott

Rural labor markets are likely to be more adversely affected from recent meatpacking closures than those near urban areas. Rural counties tend to have a higher share of their workforce employed in meatpacking plants. However, a significant number of these meatpacking-dependent counties are also near urban areas. Counties with high concentrations of meatpacking jobs near metropolitan areas have a larger, more dynamic labor market that can help workers transition to new jobs. If meatpacking plants in urban or urban adjacent counties close or consolidate, workers in these areas will likely transition faster to new jobs than workers in rural areas.

Dot plot titled 'County meatpacking employment as a share of county labor force.' Counties are grouped into five categories along the x-axis: large urban, medium urban, small urban, rural but adjacent to urban, and rural. Each dot is a U.S. county. A dotted trend line rises gradually showing that meatpacking employment makes up a larger share of the labor force in more rural areas. However, some counties with a large share of employment in meatpacking are located in more urban or urban-adjacent counties."

Notes: Meatpacking employment as a share of labor force uses 2023 data from county business patterns. Each dot represents a county. Sample includes all U.S. counties that have at least 1% of their labor force working in animal slaughter and processing plants. We modified the USDA rurality continuum to create a new typology for urban and rural counties. Urban counties with population of 1 million, between 250 thousand and 1 million, and less than 250,000 are classified as Large urban, Medium urban, and Small urban, respectively. Counties in rural areas but adjacent to urban areas are classified as Rural, but adjacent to urban, and those rural counties not adjacent to urban areas are classified as Rural county. Black line shows the relationship between meatpacking jobs as a share of labor force and an encoded version of the rurality categories that vary from 1 to 5, 1 being most urban and 5 being the most rural.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, USDA, authors’ calculations
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Economic Bulletin: Mass Layoffs Can Disproportionately Disrupt Small Communities

By John McCoy

The recent closure of a meatpacking plant in Lexington, Nebraska, raises questions about how mass layoffs affect nearby...

Rural Economy

Long-term Farmland Appreciation May Remain Attractive to Some Buyers

By Ty Kreitman

U.S. farmland real estate values have stayed strong despite tightening in farm financial conditions. While the expected return on farmland from cash rents has declined as land values have outpaced increases in rental rates, long-term appreciation has remained relatively steady. The capitalization rate on nonirrigated cropland dropped slightly below the 10-year moving average yield on 10-year U.S. bonds in the second quarter of 2026 (dark blue and purple lines). However, the 10-year moving average of annual appreciation in land values (green line) remained more than 1.25 percentage points higher. Over the past decade, average land appreciation has also exceeded average yields on inflation adjusted 10-year bonds by about 3.5 percentage points (light blue line). Farmers have remained the primary buyers of land in most major agricultural regions and the long-term prospects have potentially remained attractive when considering inflation and alternative investments.

Line graph comparing average long-term farmland appreciation and yields on U.S. government securities from 2010 to 2026, showing farmland appreciation is consistently higher than government securities yields.

Note: The capitalization rate is calculated as cash rent on nonirrigated cropland divided by the value of nonirrigated cropland. The appreciation of farmland values is based on annual changes in the value of nonirrigated cropland.

Sources: Federal Reserve Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions, Federal Reserve Board of Governors; Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City staff calculations
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Agricultural Finance Update: Farm Finance Deterioration Eases Slightly

By Ty Kreitman

Farm income and credit conditions continued to deteriorate in the second quarter but showed signs of easing.

Agriculture Agricultural Finance

Demand for Beef Remains Strong Despite Higher Retail Prices

By Cortney Cowley

Consumer demand for many beef products has continued to increase even as retail prices have climbed higher for seven consecutive years. Since 2020, retail prices for ribeye steak and ground beef have increased nearly 50% and 60%, respectively, while prices for other meat products like pork chops and chicken breast have remained relatively more stable (top chart). Low supplies have contributed to higher prices for beef, but strong demand also has remained a key factor. In fact, consumers’ willingness to pay for all meat products rose in July 2026 (bottom chart). Consumers were willing to pay nearly $19 per pound for a ribeye steak and about $10 per pound for ground beef, suggesting that consumers’ stated desire for meat, and particularly beef, could continue to put upward pressure on prices.

The top chart is a bar graph showing retail meat prices in dollars per pound for four types of meat (Ribeye Steak, Ground Beef, Pork Chop, and Chicken Breast) across seven years (2020-2026). Ribeye steak and ground beef prices increase steadily each year, while trends for prices for pork chops and chicken breast remain relatively flatter. The bottom chart is a line graph showing consumer willingness to pay (WTP, in dollars per pound) for four types of meat from 2020 to 2026. The chart uses two y-axes: the left axis ranges from 16-20 dollars per pound, while the right axis ranges from 6-12 dollars per pound. Prices for all meats increase steadily over the period, with WTP for steak and ground beef outpacing pork and chicken in 2026.

Notes: This Agricultural Insight was inspired by discussion at the AAEA Post-Conference Workshop titled “Bridging Research and Application: Emerging Developments in Agricultural Science, Data, and Finance” on July 29, 2026 at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Kansas City, MO. Willingness-to-pay (WTP) values are nominal estimates of the dollars per pound at retail, such as a grocery store, that a typical U.S. resident would spend to purchase a product. Retail meat prices for 2026 are for the month of June.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Meat Demand Monitor at Kansas State University (AgManager.info)
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High Costs and Uncertainty Will Likely Keep Cattle Inventories Low and Beef Prices Elevated for Some

By Francisco Scott

Despite favorable market signals, supply constraints may keep beef prices elevated for some time.

Food Prices Crop and Livestock Sectors Agriculture

Earnings Performance at Agricultural Banks Remains Strong

By Chris Summers, Kalyn Yzaguirre, and Camryn Lucas

Earnings performance across commercial agricultural banks remained strong in the first quarter of 2026. The return on average assets increased to 1.4% through March, continuing to surpass earnings of all community banks. More specifically, net income improvement was largely driven by increases in net interest income related to recent loan growth. Community banks have also continued to report higher levels of noninterest and provision expenses than agricultural banks, further bolstering earnings. Net interest margins at all community banks and agricultural banks contracted slightly from the previous quarter as loan yields declined slightly more than funding costs; however, margins at highly concentrated agricultural banks continued an upward trend. This trend in margins was driven by cost of funds declining faster than earning asset yields.

Two line charts compare Return on Average Assets and Net Interest Margin for community banks, agricultural banks, and highly concentrated agricultural banks from Mar-16 to Mar-26. All groups show fluctuations and general trends over time.

Notes: ROAA = net income (year-to-date) divided by average assets - annualized. NIM = interest income net of interest expense (quarter) divided by average earning assets (quarter) - annualized. Community banking organizations (CBOs) are defined as commercial banks having less than $10 billion in assets. Agricultural banks are defined as commercial banks with agricultural production and farm real estate loans equaling 25 percent or more of total loans. Highly concentrated agricultural banks are defined as commercial banks with agricultural production and farm real estate loans equaling 300 percent or more of tier 1 capital plus the allowance for credit losses (ACL). This more stringent definition captures approximately the top one-third of all agricultural banks.

Sources: Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income, Reports of Conditions and Income

Chris Summers, Kalyn Yzaguirre, and Camryn Lucas are supervisory examiners at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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Agricultural Finance Update: Farm Loan Growth Remains Strong as Lending Shifts at Some Large Banks

By Ty Kreitman

Farm loan growth continued to be concentrated among agricultural banks during the first quarter of 2026 and production loans...

Agriculture Agricultural Finance

Agricultural Economic Summit Highlights Key Structural Changes Shaping Agriculture

By Nate Kauffman

Industry experts met at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Agricultural Economic Summit to discuss "The Business of Agriculture Amid Structural Change." Participants discussed long-term forces shaping agricultural decision-making, supply behavior, and industry structure. Among Summit participants, the largest share thought that technological innovation would be the single most important structural change likely to affect agriculture in the next 5-to-10 years, with policy and regulation also highlighted frequently. A smaller portion anticipate other factors such as labor, demographic change, consumer preferences, capital requirements, climate, and trade and geopolitics being the most important.

A bar chart showing the percentage of participants ranking the most important structural changes for agriculture in the next 5-to-10 years. Technological Innovation (27%) and policy and regulation (22%) and are most selected, followed by labor availability and demographic change (14%). Climate, industry structure, global trade, and consumer demand each rank around 8%."

Note: Chart shows responses to the question, “Which of the following is the single most important structural change likely to shape agriculture over the next 5-10 years from the perspective of your business or industry? Select only one.” from about 50 executives and industry experts who participated in the Kansas City Fed’s Food and Agriculture Economic Summit in August 2026.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Agriculture US Agriculture

Consolidation Has Affected Availability of Rural Health Care

By John McCoy

Hospitals and health systems are increasingly consolidating services, leading to fewer hospital beds available across the country. Outright closures of hospitals have remained rare, but health systems have consolidated key services units, like emergency departments or labor and delivery units. Such consolidation has been most acute in rural areas, where the number of beds has fallen by about a third since 2000 (purple line). While some evidence suggests consolidation is placing upward pressure on health care prices, increases in non-monetary costs like drive and wait times could also be particularly impactful for rural communities.

Line graph showing percent change in hospital beds from 2000 to 2022: metro areas decline by about 5%, nonmetro areas decline steeply by over 35%.

Sources: HRSA Area Health Resources File, author’s calculations.
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Nebraska Health Care Under Pressure: Increasing Costs, Consolidation, and Growing Demand

By John McCoy

Health care costs have risen substantially since the turn of the century as an aging population’s demand for medical care...

Rural Economy