Mining for Oil Forecasts
By Charles W. Calomiris, Nida Cakir Melek and Harry Mamaysky
Forecasting oil market outcomes remains a challenge even with novel text-based analysis.
Flight to Liquidity or Safety? Recent Evidence from the Municipal Bond Market
Policy interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic stabilized the municipal bond market and shifted the pricing of localized credit risks from short-maturity bonds to longer-dated bonds.
Distributional Effects of Payment Card Pricing and Merchant Cost Pass-through in the United States and Canada
By Marie-Hélène Felt, Fumiko Hayashi, Joanna Stavins and Angelika Welte
Low-income consumers in the United States and Canada pay the highest net transaction costs as a percentage of their purchases.
By Cooper Howes
The loss of credit during recessions hit the U.S. manufacturing sector disproportionately, accelerating its long-term decline in its share of economic activity.
By Qinchun He, Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Heng-fu Zou
A new model incorporating the spirit of capitalism shows higher nominal interest rates could promote economic growth in the long run.
By Jason P. Brown and Colton Tousey
The closure of a coal-fired power plant reduces local air pollution and mortality probabilities with an estimated local benefit of $1 to $4 billion.
By Taeyoung Doh, Dongho Song and Shu-Kuei Yang
A new text-analysis method finds that the wording of FOMC statements can have significant effects on financial markets.
By Kartik Athreya, Ryan Mather, José Mustre-del-Río and Juan M. Sánchez
Accounting for household financial distress helps explain large regional differences in spending responses during recessions.
By Huixin Bi, Wenyi Shen and Shu-Chun S. Yang
Interest rate normalization is unlikely to pose an immediate threat to U.S. government debt sustainability at the current level of 90 to 100 percent of GDP.
Communicating a longer-run inflation objective better anchored inflation expectations in the United States, which may explain the weaker relationship between inflation and unemployment in recent years.
By Qian Chen, Christoffer Koch, Gary Richardson and Padma Sharma
Novel econometric analysis using U.S. state-level data shows that payments suspensions during banking crises lengthen and deepen downturns.
By Yifei Lyu, Jun Nie and Shu-Kuei X. Yang
Incorporating cross-country data helps forecast U.S. GDP growth in economic downturns.
By Anusha Chari, Karlye Dilts Stedman and Christian Lundblad
A sudden decrease in the risk appetite of global investors increases the probability of uncommonly large bond outflows from emerging markets.
By Lei Fang, Jun Nie and Zoe Xie
Recent expansions of unemployment insurance could raise unemployment by 3.7 percentage points but reduce cumulative deaths by 4.7 percent.
By Huixin Bi and Sarah Zubairy
News about future pension retrenchments leads to a decline in the labor force participation rate for people close to retirement and an increase in old-age pension spending.
By David Rodziewicz, Christopher J. Amante, Jacob Dice and Eugene Wahl
Sea level rise will pose increased risks to U.S. coastal real estate markets in the coming decades, though the direct economic costs depend on the severity and uncertainty within climate-change scenarios.
By Kristle Cortés, Andrew Glover and Murat Tasci
Job vacancies decline significantly when laws forbid employers from using credit reports in the hiring process.
By Andrew Glover, Jonathan Heathcote, Dirk Krueger and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
A lockdown policy that mitigates the effects of COVID-19 for both older and younger people would be less extensive than in April but remain in place through the summer.
By Ana Cláudia Sant’Anna, Cortney Cowley and Ani Katchova
Considering factors that represent credit availability at agricultural banks together, rather than separately, can better capture their effects on farmland values.
Forward guidance that lowers the expected path of policy continues to stimulate economic activity and prices.