RWP 20-06, July 2020; updated December 2021
We construct a database of public pension policy changes with motivation and im-plementation information for ten OECD countries. Structural pension reforms, moti-vated by long-run sustainability concerns, often come with prolonged phase-in periods. In response to pension retrenchments implemented immediately, people close to retire-ment stay in the work force longer. News about future pension retrenchments with implementation lags, however, is likely to lead this group to exit the labor market. This decline in the labor force participation rate is particularly strong for reforms with long lags, ones that introduce fundamental policy changes, and where citizens have lower trust in the government.
JEL Classification: E62, H30, H55
Bi, Huixin, and Sarah Zubairy. 2020. “Public Pension Reform and Fiscal Foresight: Narrative Evidence and Aggregate Implications.” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Research Working Paper no. 20-06, July. Available at External Linkhttps://doi.org/10.18651/RWP2020-06