Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risks in a Data-Rich Environment

By Thomas R. Cook and Taeyoung Doh

A large set of economic and financial indicators suggests a negligible risk of unexpectedly low real GDP growth but a modest risk of unexpectedly low inflation.

Labor Market Institutions and the Effects of Financial Openness

By Qingyuan Du, Jun Nie and Shang-Jin Wei

Developing countries may fail to benefit from capital account liberalization if their labor markets are rigid.

Risk-Shifting, Regulation, and Government Assistance

By Padma Sharma

The elimination of bailouts during the savings and loan crisis in 1989 led thrift institutions to increase their composition of safe assets.

Unconventional Monetary Policy, (A)Synchronicity and the Yield Curve

By Karlye Dilts Stedman

Spillovers from unconventional monetary policy abroad increase when the return to normalized policy is asynchronous.

Urban Growth Shadows

By David Cuberes, Klaus Desmet and Jordan Rappaport

Although locations near metropolitan areas have experienced faster population growth since 1920, this growth has diminished since 2000, suggesting the largest metropolitan areas will grow more slowly over coming decades.

Negative Nominal Interest Rates Can Worsen Liquidity Traps

By Andrew Glover

A workhorse macroeconomic model predicts that negative interest rates would likely deepen a recession caused by self-fulfilling pessimism about aggregate demand.

Consumption in the Great Recession: The Financial Distress Channel

By Kartik Athreya, Ryan Mather, José Mustre-del-Río and Juan Sánchez

The U.S. entered the Great Recession with a high and geographically diverse incidence of household financial distress. This dispersion, combined with the fact that highly financially distressed regions experienced the largest housing busts, exacerbated the drop in aggregate consumption during the recession.

Privacy Regulation and Quality Investment

By Yassine Lefouili and Ying Lei Toh

Stricter privacy regulations do not always come at the expense of innovation and service quality.

Sovereign Risk and Fiscal Information: A Look at the U.S. State Default of the 1840s

By Huixin Bi and Nora Traum

A new measure of fiscal information shows that fiscal news affects the evolution and contagion of sovereign default.

Disappearing Routine Occupations and Declining Prime-Age Labor Force Participation

By Didem Tuzemen

The disappearance of routine jobs has been a substantial contributor to the decline in labor force participation among prime-age individuals, especially those with lower educational attainment.

Rising Market Concentration and the Decline of Food Price Shock Pass-Through to Core Inflation

By Jason P. Brown and Colton Tousey

Core inflation has become 75 percent less responsive to food price shocks since the 1970s, largely due to rising market concentration in food supply chains.

Speaking for Herself: Changing Gender Roles in Survey Response

By Sabrina Minhas and Amy Oksol

Female respondents to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics have increased over time, revealing potential issues with historic data quality.