A large set of economic and financial indicators suggests a negligible risk of unexpectedly low real GDP growth but a modest risk of unexpectedly low inflation.
By Qingyuan Du, Jun Nie and Shang-Jin Wei
Developing countries may fail to benefit from capital account liberalization if their labor markets are rigid.
By Padma Sharma
The elimination of bailouts during the savings and loan crisis in 1989 led thrift institutions to increase their composition of safe assets.
Spillovers from unconventional monetary policy abroad increase when the return to normalized policy is asynchronous.
By David Cuberes, Klaus Desmet and Jordan Rappaport
Although locations near metropolitan areas have experienced faster population growth since 1920, this growth has diminished since 2000, suggesting the largest metropolitan areas will grow more slowly over coming decades.
A workhorse macroeconomic model predicts that negative interest rates would likely deepen a recession caused by self-fulfilling pessimism about aggregate demand.
By Kartik Athreya, Ryan Mather, José Mustre-del-Río and Juan Sánchez
The U.S. entered the Great Recession with a high and geographically diverse incidence of household financial distress. This dispersion, combined with the fact that highly financially distressed regions experienced the largest housing busts, exacerbated the drop in aggregate consumption during the recession.
By Yassine Lefouili and Ying Lei Toh
Stricter privacy regulations do not always come at the expense of innovation and service quality.
By Huixin Bi and Nora Traum
A new measure of fiscal information shows that fiscal news affects the evolution and contagion of sovereign default.
The disappearance of routine jobs has been a substantial contributor to the decline in labor force participation among prime-age individuals, especially those with lower educational attainment.
By Jason P. Brown and Colton Tousey
Core inflation has become 75 percent less responsive to food price shocks since the 1970s, largely due to rising market concentration in food supply chains.
By Sabrina Minhas and Amy Oksol
Female respondents to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics have increased over time, revealing potential issues with historic data quality.