Recent Research

The Drag of Energy and Manufacturing on Productivity Growth

THE MACRO BULLETINWillem Van Zandweghe finds a decline in manufacturing and mining activity has slowed overall productivity growth.

Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the Summary of Economic Projections

George A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer assess how FOMC participants' projections that policy would lift off from its effective lower bound related to their projections for inflation and unemployment. 

Flowing into Employment: Implications for the Participation Rate

THE MACRO BULLETINJosé Mustre-del-Río, Michael Redmond, and William Xu find more prime-age individuals are flowing into employment from outside the labor force, though effects on the participation rate could be limited by educational attainment.

The Lasting Damage from the Financial Crisis to U.S. Productivity

THE MACRO BULLETINMichael Redmond and Willem Van Zandweghe find that tight credit conditions during the 2007–09 financial crisis dampened productivity, leaving it on a lower trajectory.

Debt-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Expansions

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERThe effects of an increase in government spending are not necessarily debt-dependent—instead, they may depend on general economic conditions as well as whether the government stabilizes debt through taxes or spending.

The Limited Supply of Homes

THE MACRO BULLETINJordan Rappaport finds that a limited supply of single-family homes will continue to constrain home sales and put upward pressure on home prices over the next few years.

Gauging the Strength of Chinese GDP Growth

THE MACRO BULLETINJun Nie constructs an alternative measure to evaluate the strength of Chinese GDP growth and identifies potential risks to China’s growth in the near term.

Productivity, Congested Commuting, and Metro Size

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERA model of metropolitan areas shows that traffic congestion is the most important force constraining population.

The Dynamic Effects of Forward Guidance Shocks

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERForward guidance that lowers the expected path of policy stimulates economic activity and prices.

How Much of the Fall in Inflation Can Be Explained by Energy and Import Prices?

THE MACRO BULLETINA. Lee Smith finds that recent declines in inflation may be due to historically large movements in oil prices and the foreign exchange value of the dollar. 

Estimating the Monetary Policy Rule Perceived by Forecasters

Economic Review Brent Bundick examines whether the FOMC’s implicit monetary policy rule, as perceived by professional forecasters, changed when the federal funds rate reached its effective lower bound. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Sentiment of the FOMC: Unscripted

ECONOMIC REVIEWSan Cannon applies text-mining techniques to FOMC transcripts to identify patterns in Committee discourse over time as well as changes in the relationship between participants' tone and economic activity.

Robust Permanent Income in General Equilibrium

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERHow do concerns about possible model misspecifications influence the equilibrium real interest rate?

Cash Flow and Risk Premium Dynamics in an Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Model with Recursive Preferences

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERA nonlinear extension of an equilibrium asset-pricing model based on long-run consumption risks allows us to more plausibly predict future cash flows and asset returns by stock prices.

Long-Term Survey-Based Inflation Expectations Have Become Better Anchored

By Craig S. Hakkio
The Macro Bulletin Craig S. Hakkio finds that while the median of some long-term inflation forecasts has declined, the distribution of individual forecasts suggests long-term inflation expectations have in fact become better anchored.

Health Care Reform or Labor Market Reform? A Quantitative Analysis of the Affordable Care Act

By Makoto Nakajima and Didem Tüzemen
Research Working Paper Analysis of the ACA predicts a significant reduction in the uninsured rate and gains in welfare. The reform may weaken the link between full-time work and health insurance, leading to 2.1M more part-time and 1.6M fewer full-time workers, with a small reduction in total hours.

Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility

By Troy DavigNida Çakır MelekJun NieA. Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen 
The Macro Bulletin Troy Davig, Nida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline. 

Global Capital Flows from China

By Jun Nie and Nicholas Sly
The Macro Bulletin Jun Nie and Nicholas Sly examine recent trends in capital flows from China and the implications for the United States.

Has Forward Guidance Been Effective?

By A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker
The Macro Bulletin A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker compare forward guidance announcements with changes in the effective federal funds rate and find the two policy measures have had similar macroeconomic effects. 

Global Tax Policy and the Synchronization of Business Cycles

By Nicholas Sly and Caroline Weber
Research Working Paper Congress may soon consider changing how the United States taxes multinational enterprises. Prior evidence suggests such changes in international tax policy facilitate the transmission of economic shocks across borders, leading to greater synchronization of global business cycles.

Monetary Policy and Firm Entry and Exit

Yoonsoo Lee and Willem Van Zandweghe
The Macro Bulletin Yoonsoo Lee and Willem Van Zandweghe find unusually accommodative monetary policy reduces the reallocation of capital and workers from exiting firms to new ones, potentially slowing productivity growth.

Taylor Rules or Target Rules?

By George A. Kahn 
The Macro Bulletin George A. Kahn assesses whether the Federal Open Market Committee's policy actions are better characterized as following a policy-rule or target-rule approach.

Monetary Policy Shocks and Aggregate Supply

By Willem Van Zandweghe
ECONOMIC REVIEW Willem Van Zandweghe examines whether monetary policy has had long-lasting effects on labor productivity and potential output. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
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