Recent Research

Cash Flow and Risk Premium Dynamics in an Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Model with Recursive Preferences

By Taeyoung Doh and Shu Wu

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERA nonlinear extension of an equilibrium asset-pricing model based on long-run consumption risks allows us to more plausibly predict future cash flows and asset returns by stock prices.

Long-Term Survey-Based Inflation Expectations Have Become Better Anchored

By Craig S. Hakkio
The Macro Bulletin Craig S. Hakkio finds that while the median of some long-term inflation forecasts has declined, the distribution of individual forecasts suggests long-term inflation expectations have in fact become better anchored.

Health Care Reform or Labor Market Reform? A Quantitative Analysis of the Affordable Care Act

By Makoto Nakajima and Didem Tüzemen
Research Working Paper Analysis of the ACA predicts a significant reduction in the uninsured rate and gains in welfare. The reform may weaken the link between full-time work and health insurance, leading to 2.1M more part-time and 1.6M fewer full-time workers, with a small reduction in total hours.

Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility

By Troy DavigNida Çakır MelekJun NieA. Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen 
The Macro Bulletin Troy Davig, Nida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline. 

Global Capital Flows from China

By Jun Nie and Nicholas Sly
The Macro Bulletin Jun Nie and Nicholas Sly examine recent trends in capital flows from China and the implications for the United States.

Has Forward Guidance Been Effective?

By A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker
The Macro Bulletin A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker compare forward guidance announcements with changes in the effective federal funds rate and find the two policy measures have had similar macroeconomic effects. 

Global Tax Policy and the Synchronization of Business Cycles

By Nicholas Sly and Caroline Weber
Research Working Paper Congress may soon consider changing how the United States taxes multinational enterprises. Prior evidence suggests such changes in international tax policy facilitate the transmission of economic shocks across borders, leading to greater synchronization of global business cycles.

Monetary Policy and Firm Entry and Exit

Yoonsoo Lee and Willem Van Zandweghe
The Macro Bulletin Yoonsoo Lee and Willem Van Zandweghe find unusually accommodative monetary policy reduces the reallocation of capital and workers from exiting firms to new ones, potentially slowing productivity growth.

Taylor Rules or Target Rules?

By George A. Kahn 
The Macro Bulletin George A. Kahn assesses whether the Federal Open Market Committee's policy actions are better characterized as following a policy-rule or target-rule approach.

Monetary Policy Shocks and Aggregate Supply

By Willem Van Zandweghe
ECONOMIC REVIEW Willem Van Zandweghe examines whether monetary policy has had long-lasting effects on labor productivity and potential output. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

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