Latest Research

As Rates Tick Up, Growth in Operating Loans Boosts Farm Lending

By Nathan Kauffman and Ty Kreitman
January 17, 2019 | Ag Finance Databook
The volume of non-real estate farm debt continued to increase in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country Data

By Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie
December 26, 2018 | Research Working Paper
Forecasting foreign GDP growth using cross-country monthly data provides a timely measure of foreign demand.

Small Business Lending Remains Stable in the Third Quarter

By Christi May-Oder, Assistant Vice President and Thomas Hobson, Senior Supervisory Analyst*
December 21, 2018 | Small Business Lending Survey
U. S. small business commercial and industrial (C&I) lending increased in the third quarter of 2018 with growth driven by large institutions. Most of the 122 respondents to the Federal Reserve’s Small Business Lending Survey (FR 2028D) indicated conditions for small business lending remained stable in the third quarter. Credit standards remained relatively unchanged with respondents indicating a tightening of lending terms. Interest rates on new small business C&I term loans and lines of credit continued to rise.

Reconciling VAR-based Forecasts with Survey Forecasts

By Taeyoung Doh and A. Lee Smith
December 21, 2018 | Research Working Paper
Survey forecasts are incorporated into VAR models using Bayesian methods to enhance inflation forecasts and sharpen the identification of forward guidance shocks.

The Optimal Monetary Instrument and the (Mis)Use of Causality Tests

By A. Lee Smith and John W. Keating
December 07, 2018 | Research Working Paper
Since the EMV liability shift in October 2015, both chargebacks and fraud loss rates have increased for merchants, particularly from signature-based, card-present transactions
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