Does the Recent Decline in Household Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Signal a Loss of Confidence in the FOMC?By A. Lee Smith, Brent Bundick, Trenton Herriford and Emily Pollard THE MACRO BULLETINHouseholds have lowered their longer-term inflation outlooks, but they appear confident in the FOMC’s ability to achieve stable prices.
ECONOMIC REVIEWJordan Rappaport finds factors related to population, population density, and centralized employment have driven much of the recent variation in multifamily construction across metros.
Additional files: Data Supplement
ECONOMIC REVIEWTaeyoung Doh and Jason Choi propose a new “shadow” short-term interest rate to measure the stance of policy when the federal funds rate was constrained by the zero lower bound.Additional files: Data Supplement
Cash Flow and Risk Premium Dynamics in an Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Model with Recursive PreferencesBy Taeyoung Doh and Shu Wu RESEARCH WORKING PAPERA nonlinear extension of an equilibrium asset-pricing model based on long-run consumption risks allows us to more plausibly predict future cash flows and asset returns by stock prices.
The Macro Bulletin Craig S. Hakkio finds that while the median of some long-term inflation forecasts has declined, the distribution of individual forecasts suggests long-term inflation expectations have in fact become better anchored.
Research Working Paper Analysis of the ACA predicts a significant reduction in the uninsured rate and gains in welfare. The reform may weaken the link between full-time work and health insurance, leading to 2.1M more part-time and 1.6M fewer full-time workers, with a small reduction in total hours.
The Macro Bulletin Troy Davig, Nida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline.
Research Working Paper Congress may soon consider changing how the United States taxes multinational enterprises. Prior evidence suggests such changes in international tax policy facilitate the transmission of economic shocks across borders, leading to greater synchronization of global business cycles.
The Economic Review is a quarterly research publication with articles by Kansas City Fed staff on macroeconomics and monetary policy, regional and international economics, banking, financial markets, and payments systems.
The proceedings include papers, commentary and discussion from the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium. Participants include central bankers, finance ministers, academics and financial market participants from around the globe. They discuss economic issues, implications and policy options.