Latest Research

Payments Crises and Consequences

By Qian Chen, Christoffer Koch, Gary Richardson and Padma Sharma
September 03, 2020 | Research Working Paper
Novel econometric analysis using U.S. state-level data shows that payments suspensions during banking crises lengthen and deepen downturns.

Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory and Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations

By Brent Bundick and A. Lee Smith
September 03, 2020 | Research Working Paper
Communicating a longer-run inflation objective better anchored inflation expectations in the United States, which may explain the weaker relationship between inflation and unemployment in recent years.

Forecasting U.S. Economic Growth in Downturns Using Cross-Country Data

By Yifei Lyu, Jun Nie and Shu-Kuei X. Yang
September 02, 2020 | Research Working Paper
Incorporating cross-country data helps forecast U.S. GDP growth in economic downturns.

Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-On / Risk-Off and Emerging Market Tail Risk

By Anusha Chari, Karlye Dilts Stedman and Christian Lundblad
August 17, 2020 | Research Working Paper
A sudden decrease in the risk appetite of global investors increases the probability of uncommonly large bond outflows from emerging markets.

Unemployment Insurance during a Pandemic

By Lei Fang, Jun Nie and Zoe Xie
August 11, 2020 | Research Working Paper
Recent expansions of unemployment insurance could raise unemployment by 3.7 percentage points but reduce cumulative deaths by 4.7 percent.
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