The Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) suggest the level of activity continued to increase in June while momentum decelerated moderately. The level of activity indicator increased by 0.10 in June from 0.43 to 0.53. This recent increase builds on a four-month period of especially strong growth, with the level of activity increasing 0.95 since its January reading of −0.42. Meanwhile, the momentum indicator decreased by 0.13 in June from 0.56 to 0.43. Both indicators remained above their longer-run averages in June.
These readings likely do not fully describe the state of the labor market at the end of June, as many of the input data series reflect conditions early in the month. In particular, the series do not include the effects of continued vaccine administration or the loosening of some states’ COVID-19 restrictions that occurred later in the month. For example, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Household Survey are from the reference period of June 6 through June 12. Additionally, the most recent data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) are for May. Therefore, labor market developments in the latter half of June, including the labor market response to recent COVID-19 developments, will likely show up in the July 2021 LMCI readings.