Ag Outlooks
Research and updates from the Kansas City Fed highlighting developments in the agricultural economy.
Research and Updates
Fourth Quarter Ag Bulletin
The U.S. agricultural economy moderated through the end of 2023 alongside lower commodity prices.
Interest Expenses on Farmland Debt Could Challenge Farm Profitability
Crop producers with high levels of land debt may struggle to be profitable under higher interest expenses.
Third Quarter 2023 Ag Bulletin
The U.S. agricultural economy softened in the third quarter alongside a drop in commodity prices.
Second Quarter Ag Bulletin
The U.S. ag economy was steady in the second quarter as signs of moderation continued.
How Mergers in the Farm Credit System Have Affected Ag Banks
Ag banks likely altered some of their strategic portfolio decisions after an FCS merger in their local credit market.
Commodity Prices Have Limited Influence on U.S. Food Inflation
Food prices increased at the fastest pace in more than two decades from July 2021 to July 2022. We show that this increase has...
Turmoil in Commodity Markets Following Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022, has caused broad disruptions in global commodity markets.
COVID-19 Disruptions in the U.S. Meat Supply Chain
The emergence of COVID-19 in the U.S. has created substantial challenges for all segments of the meat supply chain.
COVID-19 Updates & Key Demand Drivers for Agriculture
A review of U.S. ag policy, exports, ethanol production and meat production.
Resources on the Ag Economy
Ag Finance Updates
Find articles summarizing recent developments in agricultural finance and lending.
Ag Credit Survey
The quarterly Ag Credit Survey provides current indicators of the financial performance of Tenth District agriculture.
Agricultural Symposium
The Kansas City Fed's Agricultural Symposium explores topics of current and emerging significance to agriculture.
Archive
Ag Bulletin
2023
2022
PDFFourth Quarter, 2022
PDFThird Quarter, 2022
PDFSecond Quarter, 2022
PDFFirst Quarter, 2022
2021
PDFFourth Quarter, 2021
PDFThird Quarter, 2021
PDFSecond Quarter, 2021
PDFFirst Quarter, 2021
2020
Ag Outlook Articles
The Outlook for Farmland Values amid Higher Interest Rates
April 10, 2019 | In 2018, the spread between returns to farmland owners and benchmark interest rates narrowed to its lowest level in more than a decade in the Tenth Federal Reserve District.
PDFA Tale of Two Economies: Farmers Struggle Despite Strong U.S. Economy
September 28, 2018 | At a time when the overall U.S. economy continues to boom, the U.S. agricultural sector has continued to struggle.
As Winter Looms, Key Risks Keep Outlook Cool
January 8, 2018 | The outlook for agriculture remains downbeat but is beginning to show signs of stabilization.
Persistent Large Inventories, Low Prices
April 17, 2017 | Sentiment about the 2017 outlook for agriculture has varied somewhat by scale and commodity.
Headwinds to Ag Outlook Remain Despite Strength in Exports
December 28, 2016 | Some agricultural commodity prices in the U.S. got a boost from exports over the summer, but elevated exports seemed to only keep prices for some commodities from dropping further.