Research Working Paper Archive

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460 result(s) found
Article Title Author(s) Date Type

Cautious Careers: Job Mobility Under Incomplete Markets

Without unemployment insurance, workers frequently stay put in safe but lower-productivity jobs and reject risky high-wage jobs.

Labor and Demographics Quantitative Methods Research Working Paper Macroeconomics Data and Trends
Alex Clymo
Piotr Denderski
Yusuf Mercan
Benjamin Schoefer Expandable Row
August 19, 2026
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Introducing Trimmed Imports and Exports

New “trimmed” import and export growth rates for the United States can cut forecast errors by up to 15 percent.

Research Working Paper International Data and Trends
Thomas R. Cook
Mariia Dzholos
Johannes Matschke Expandable Row
August 18, 2026
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The Dynamic Distribution in the Fixed Cost Model: An Analytical Solution

A new method for analyzing dynamic distributions predicts an investment boom and lull after AI accelerates growth.

Quantitative Methods Research Working Paper Macroeconomics
Jonathan J. Adams Expandable Row
August 14, 2026
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Is the AI Boom Volatility-Biased Technological Change?

The AI boom is concentrated in the most volatile sectors of the U.S. economy and could keep volatility elevated going forward.

Labor and Demographics AI Research Working Paper Macroeconomics
Juan David Munoz Henao
Nicholas Sly Expandable Row
August 13, 2026
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Rethinking Central Bank LSAPs: The Power of Market Functioning Purchases

New research shows how operationally similar central bank asset purchases can have markedly different effects.

Research Working Paper Monetary Policy Banking and Finance
A. Lee Smith
Victor J. Valcarcel Expandable Row
July 17, 2026
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Maintaining the Anchor: An Evaluation of Inflation Targeting in the Face of COVID-19 - Online Appendix

No Description Provided.

A. Lee Smith
Luca Van der Meer
Luca Van der Meer
Brent Bundick Expandable Row
June 4, 2026
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Treasury Supply Shocks: Propagation Through Debt Expansion and Maturity Adjustment

We examine how federal debt management decisions transmit to financial markets and the broader economy.

Research Working Paper Macroeconomics Data and Trends
Huixin Bi
Maxime Phillot
Sarah Zubairy Expandable Row
April 10, 2026
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How Ricardian Are We?

Estimates with new time series methods suggest households act as if they will bear only a fraction of outstanding government debt.

Quantitative Methods Research Working Paper Macroeconomics
Jonathan J. Adams
Christian Matthes Expandable Row
March 20, 2026
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Sticky Prices for Inflationary Economies: A Tractable Linear Approximation to Menu Cost Models with Trend Inflation

A new method assesses how the costs firms incur to adjust their prices determine inflation and affect monetary policy.

Quantitative Methods Research Working Paper Monetary Policy Macroeconomics
Jonathan J. Adams Expandable Row
March 20, 2026
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Does Experience Matter? Past Fraud Experiences, Data Compromises, and Credit Market Behavior

Past experiences with fraud affect whether individuals take precautionary measures under a new fraud threat.

Research Working Paper Banking and Finance
Nathan Blascak
Ying Lei Toh Expandable Row
February 17, 2026
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