Research Working Paper Archive

Research staff produce Research Working Papers on a wide range of economic topics.

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452 result(s) found
Article Title Author(s) Date Type

Text Sentiment About Monetary Policy

Text-based analysis of FOMC meeting transcripts can help identify the evolution of members’ perceptions of economic conditions.

Quantitative Methods Research Working Paper Monetary Policy Macroeconomics
Hie Joo Ahn
Thomas R. Cook
Taeyoung Doh
Elias Kastritis
Jesse Wedewer Expandable Row
November 25, 2025
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What Do LLMs Want?

Large language models (LLMs) seem more impatient and altruistic than humans in economic experiments.

Quantitative Methods Research Working Paper Macroeconomics
Thomas R. Cook
Sophia Kazinnik
Zach Modig
Nathan M. Palmer Expandable Row
November 25, 2025
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Firm-Level Pass-Through of Supply Chain Disruptions: Insights from the U.S. Beef Market

A supply disruption’s effect on retail prices depends on the magnitude of the shock and the perceived reliability of the seller.

Research Working Paper Agriculture Manufacturing
Francisco Scott
Marco Duarte
Meilin Ma Expandable Row
November 25, 2025
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A Note on the Finite Sample Bias in Time Series Cross-Validation

Cross-validation biases time series model selection even when used with VARs or with models that have martingale-like errors.

Quantitative Methods Research Working Paper
Amaze Lusompa Expandable Row
November 24, 2025
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Financial Constraints and Employment Dynamics following Natural Disasters

Financial constraints can weigh on credit access and employment after a natural disaster—even outside the affected area.

Economic Geography Research Working Paper Macroeconomics Banking and Finance
Cooper Howes
Johannes Matschke
Jordan Pandolfo Expandable Row
November 21, 2025
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rwp25-14routhurban

No Description Provided.

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November 19, 2025
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An Analytical Price of Stablecoin “Deposit” Insurance

This paper provides the first analytical estimates of the price of guaranteeing stablecoins against loss.

Quantitative Methods Payments Research Working Paper Banking and Finance
Stefan A. Jacewitz Expandable Row
October 17, 2025
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The Complementary Effects of Financial Education and Payday Lending Regulations on Financial Inclusion

Financial education reduces adults’ likelihood of being unbanked, particularly in states where payday lending is also restricted.

Quantitative Methods Payments Research Working Paper Monetary Policy Banking and Finance
Aditi Routh
Carly Urban Expandable Row
October 16, 2025
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Labor Market Dynamics, Monetary Policy Tradeoffs, and a Shortfalls Approach to Pursuing Maximum Employment

This paper assesses policy strategies that pursue maximum employment by mitigating shortfalls rather than deviations.

Research Working Paper Monetary Policy Macroeconomics
Brent Bundick
Isabel Cairó
Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau Expandable Row
October 15, 2025
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Regression Model Selection Under General Conditions

This paper shows that various model selection criteria—an important but debated statistical tool—in fact make similar selections.

Quantitative Methods Research Working Paper
Amaze Lusompa Expandable Row
October 10, 2025
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