Research Working Papers
Working papers cover a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, payment methods, banking and more.
Recent Papers
Sticky Prices for Inflationary Economies
A new method assesses how the costs firms incur to adjust their prices determine inflation and affect monetary policy.
How Ricardian Are We?
Estimates with new time series methods suggest households act as if they will bear only a fraction of outstanding government debt.
Does Experience Matter? Past Fraud Experiences, Data Compromises, and Credit Market Behavior
Past experiences with fraud affect whether individuals take precautionary measures under a new fraud threat.
Firm-Level Pass-Through of Supply Chain Disruptions: Insights from the U.S. Beef Market
A supply disruption’s effect on retail prices depends on the magnitude of the shock and the perceived reliability of the seller.
What Do LLMs Want?
Large language models (LLMs) seem more impatient and altruistic than humans in economic experiments.
Text Sentiment About Monetary Policy
Text-based analysis of FOMC meeting transcripts can help identify the evolution of members’ perceptions of economic conditions.
A Note on the Finite Sample Bias in Time Series Cross-Validation
Cross-validation biases time series model selection even when used with VARs or with models that have martingale-like errors.
Financial Constraints and Employment Dynamics following Natural Disasters
Financial constraints can weigh on credit access and employment after a natural disaster—even outside the affected area.
An Analytical Price of Stablecoin “Deposit” Insurance
This paper provides the first analytical estimates of the price of guaranteeing stablecoins against loss.