Farmland values in the Midwest and Plains states increased slightly in the first quarter of 2026. Lenders throughout Federal Reserve Districts participating in the Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions reported that on average, nonirrigated cropland values were about 3% higher than a year ago. Land values remained near record levels in most regions despite ongoing challenges in the crop sector that contributed to further tightening in farm finances and gradual deterioration in credit conditions. While many farms continued to face headwinds such as higher input costs, and severe drought; government payments and remarkably strong cattle revenues have provided broad support to the sector and continued to help keep aggregate financial stress limited.

First Quarter Federal Reserve District Ag Credit Surveys

Average farmland values remained strong across all participating Districts. The average value of nonirrigated cropland increased slightly from a year ago in the Dallas, Chicago, and Kansas City regions and was close to unchanged in the Minneapolis District (Chart 1). The average values of all types of agricultural land remained near record highs and strength in cattle prices supported sharp growth of ranchland values in some areas.

Chart 1: Nonirrigated Cropland Values

Multi‑line chart showing quarterly percent changes in nonirrigated cropland values for Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, Minneapolis, and St. Louis Districts from 2010 to 2026. Chicago and Kansas City show strong appreciation through early 2013 followed by periods of softening and moderate volatility. Minneapolis displays sharp gains through 2012, then declines and gradual stabilization. Dallas shows generally steady, moderate increases with notable acceleration after 2020. St. Louis data begins in 2012 with fluctuating but generally positive growth in later years. Chart illustrates long‑term value trends and cyclical movements across Districts.

Source: Federal Reserve Surveys of Agricultural Credit Conditions

Farm real estate markets stayed resilient despite steady deterioration in farm financial conditions. The pace of decline in farm income slowed compared to the previous quarter in the Kansas City region but was unchanged for St. Louis District lenders and quickened slightly in the Minneapolis region (Chart 2). Ongoing challenges in the crop sector continued to weigh on many growers, but government payments have helped limit losses and strength in the cattle sector has boosted incomes for ranches and other operations diversified with beef cattle.

Chart 2: Farm Borrower Income

Multi‑line chart showing the farm income diffusion index for the Kansas City, Minneapolis, and St. Louis Districts from 2010 through 2026. Values above 100 indicate higher income compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Kansas City and Minneapolis each show very strong income readings during the 2010–2013 commodity price boom, followed by significant declines and ongoing cyclical patterns. St. Louis data begins in 2012 and shows sharp swings, including several periods of strong improvement from 2020 onward. The chart highlights broad cycles in farm profitability, including downturns mid‑decade and renewed strength in the early 2020s.

*Lenders responded by indicating whether conditions during the current quarter were higher than, lower than, or the same as in the year-earlier period. The index numbers are computed by subtracting the percentage of survey respondents who responded "lower" from the percentage who responded "higher" and adding 100.

Note: Information about farm income and borrower spending is only collected for the above Districts. The St. Louis survey began in Q2 2012.

Source: Federal Reserve Surveys of Agricultural Credit Conditions

Gradual deterioration in credit conditions also continued alongside tight farm finances. The pace of decline in farm loan repayment rates picked up slightly compared with the previous quarter across all regions and remained weakest in regions most heavily concentrated in crop production (Chart 3). The share of lenders reporting that repayment rates were lower than the same time a year ago was near 40% in the Chicago, Minneapolis, and St. Louis Districts and was less than 25% in the Kansas City and Dallas Districts.

Chart 3: Farm Loan Repayment Rates

Multi‑line chart showing the farm loan repayment rate diffusion index for Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, Minneapolis, and St. Louis Districts from 2010 to 2026. Higher numbers indicate that more lenders report stronger repayment conditions relative to the prior year. Repayment rates rise sharply across Districts during 2010–2013, then gradually weaken through the middle and late 2010s. All Districts show renewed strength in repayment rates around 2020–2022, followed by a mix of slight declines or stabilization thereafter. The chart emphasizes how repayment conditions track shifts in farm income and economic conditions.

*Lenders responded by indicating whether conditions during the current quarter were higher than, lower than, or the same as in the year-earlier period. The index numbers are computed by subtracting the percentage of survey respondents who responded "lower" from the percentage who responded "higher" and adding 100.

Note: The St. Louis survey began in Q2 2012.

Source: Federal Reserve Surveys of Agricultural Credit Conditions

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City or the Federal Reserve System.

Author

Ty Kreitman

Associate Economist

Ty Kreitman is an associate economist in the Regional Affairs Department at the Omaha Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. In this role, Ty is a key contributor to…

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