Latest Data for the KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators
Find the most recent monthly readings for the level of activity and momentum indicators.
Labor Market Conditions Indicators
Labor Market
Data and Trends
|
Expandable Row
|
February 13, 2026
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Expandable Row
|
A New U.S. Productivity Chapter? What Industry Data Say About AI
Since late 2022, U.S. labor productivity has risen notably above its pre-pandemic trend. Industry data suggest the pickup is not yet broad-based: A small set of industries accounts for most gains. While higher AI adoption is associated with faster productivity growth across industries, it explains little of the shift in aggregate contributions, suggesting AI adoption is still spreading.
Labor and Demographics
AI
Macroeconomics
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
|
Nida Çakır Melek
Sydney Miller
Expandable Row
|
February 11, 2026
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Full Text
Expandable Row
|
Oklahoma Experiences Hiring Slowdown: Latest Edition of the Oklahoma Economist Released
The Oklahoma Economist is a quarterly publication that provides economic information and insights on the state's economy.
Oklahoma Economist
Labor Market
Oklahoma
|
Expandable Row
|
February 11, 2026
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Expandable Row
|
Investigating the Recent Decline in Community College Enrollment
Community college enrollment has fallen since 2010, driven mainly by strong labor markets and lower returns to an associate degree.
Labor and Demographics
Economic Review
Macroeconomics
|
Emily Pollard
Expandable Row
|
February 5, 2026
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Full Text
Expandable Row
|
Introducing New Monthly Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and Natural Unemployment Rate
Policymakers reference the natural rate of interest (r*) to judge the tightness of monetary policy and the natural unemployment rate (u*) to gauge whether the economy is near full employment. Most estimates of these measures use quarterly data and are only updated four times per year. We introduce new monthly measures of r* and u*—the KC Fed Model-Based Natural Rate of Interest and Natural Unemployment Rate—to provide more timely data on the tightness of labor markets and stance of monetary policy.
Labor and Demographics
Monetary Policy
Macroeconomics
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
|
Andrew Glover
Johnson Oliyide
Expandable Row
|
February 2, 2026
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Full Text
Expandable Row
|
Higher Tariffs Might Have Created Headwinds to Employment Growth in 2025
Job growth in the United States has slowed considerably this year. We examine the effect of tariffs on job growth and argue that sectors with higher exposure to imports had greater reductions in hiring. Tariffs therefore could have reduced job growth, though there is considerable uncertainty about the effect.
Labor and Demographics
International
Economic Bulletin
|
Johannes Matschke
Mariia Dzholos
Expandable Row
|
December 12, 2025
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Full Text
Expandable Row
|
Understanding the Role of Wealth in Worker Flows
Workers in wealthier households tend to experience lower job loss rates and switch jobs less frequently.
Labor and Demographics
Economic Review
Macroeconomics
|
Yusuf Mercan
Jalen Nichols
Expandable Row
|
November 18, 2025
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Full Text
Expandable Row
|
An Alternative Version of the KC Fed LMCI Suggests the Level of Activity Was Little Changed but Momentum Decelerated Sharply in October
Last month, we published an alternative version of the Kansas City Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) that excludes delayed government series to continue tracking the health of the labor market in a systematic fashion. The October reading of this restricted LMCI suggests little change in the labor market, but a deceleration in labor market momentum caused by a high number of announced job cuts. This has pushed down our model's forecast of payroll employment growth for October.
Labor and Demographics
Monetary Policy
Macroeconomics
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
|
José Mustre-del-Río
Johnson Oliyide
Emily Pollard
Expandable Row
|
November 10, 2025
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Full Text
Expandable Row
|
Assessing Labor Market Conditions Across Regions
A new version of the LMCI calculated at the Census division level can capture variation in regional labor market conditions.
Labor and Demographics
Economic Geography
Economic Review
Macroeconomics
Data and Trends
|
José Mustre-del-Río
Emily Pollard
Expandable Row
|
November 6, 2025
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Full Text
Expandable Row
|
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Explored How Demographics and Technology Are Influencing Productivity and Labor Markets
The 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium brought together academics and policymakers from around the world to discuss labor market transitions due to demographic changes, the effects of new technologies on productivity, and the consequences of these trends for economic policy.
Labor and Demographics
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
Macroeconomics
Economic Bulletin
|
Andrew Glover
Expandable Row
|
November 5, 2025
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Expandable Row
|
