Understanding the Role of Wealth in Worker Flows
Workers in wealthier households tend to experience lower job loss rates and switch jobs less frequently.
Labor and Demographics
Economic Review
Macroeconomics
|
Yusuf Mercan
Jalen Nichols
Expandable Row
|
November 18, 2025
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Full Text
Expandable Row
|
An Alternative Version of the KC Fed LMCI Suggests the Level of Activity Was Little Changed but Momentum Decelerated Sharply in October
Last month, we published an alternative version of the Kansas City Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) that excludes delayed government series to continue tracking the health of the labor market in a systematic fashion. The October reading of this restricted LMCI suggests little change in the labor market, but a deceleration in labor market momentum caused by a high number of announced job cuts. This has pushed down our model's forecast of payroll employment growth for October.
Labor and Demographics
Monetary Policy
Macroeconomics
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
|
José Mustre-del-Río
Johnson Oliyide
Emily Pollard
Expandable Row
|
November 10, 2025
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Full Text
Expandable Row
|
Assessing Labor Market Conditions Across Regions
A new version of the LMCI calculated at the Census division level can capture variation in regional labor market conditions.
Labor and Demographics
Economic Geography
Economic Review
Macroeconomics
Data and Trends
|
José Mustre-del-Río
Emily Pollard
Expandable Row
|
November 6, 2025
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Full Text
Expandable Row
|
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Explored How Demographics and Technology Are Influencing Productivity and Labor Markets
The 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium brought together academics and policymakers from around the world to discuss labor market transitions due to demographic changes, the effects of new technologies on productivity, and the consequences of these trends for economic policy.
Labor and Demographics
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
Macroeconomics
Economic Bulletin
|
Andrew Glover
Expandable Row
|
November 5, 2025
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Expandable Row
|
Declining Immigration and an Aging Population Are Reducing Breakeven Employment Growth
Two forces are weighing on labor force growth in the United States: an aging population and recent declines in immigration. These two forces reduce the number of new jobs required to maintain a stable unemployment rate each month, known as breakeven employment growth. Lower breakeven employment growth may help contextualize recent soft payroll readings, suggesting less weakness in labor demand than payroll numbers alone might imply.
Labor and Demographics
Macroeconomics
Economic Bulletin
|
Yusuf Mercan
Expandable Row
|
October 15, 2025
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Full Text
Expandable Row
|
An Alternative Version of the KC Fed LMCI Suggests Little Change in the Labor Market in September
Delays in the release of official government data have increased the need for alternative measures of labor market health. We create an alternative version of the Kansas City Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) that excludes delayed government series. The restricted LMCI still provide a timely measure of labor market health that can be used to create real-time forecasts of unemployment and payroll growth. Currently, the restricted LMCI suggest little change in the labor market from August to September.
Labor and Demographics
Monetary Policy
Macroeconomics
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
|
José Mustre-del-Río
Johnson Oliyide
Emily Pollard
Expandable Row
|
October 10, 2025
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Full Text
Expandable Row
|
Cooling Labor Markets in Nebraska Present Some Challenges for Younger Workers
Labor conditions in Nebraska have cooled over the last year, marked by slowing demand and a slight increase in unemployment. Hiring has slowed across industries and fewer workers are voluntarily leaving jobs, resulting in some challenges for younger workers.
Nebraska Economist
Labor Market
Nebraska
|
John McCoy
Nate Kauffman
Expandable Row
|
September 29, 2025
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Expandable Row
|
Latest Data for the KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators
Find the most recent monthly readings for the level of activity and momentum indicators.
Labor Market Conditions Indicators
Labor Market
Data and Trends
|
Expandable Row
|
September 9, 2025
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Expandable Row
|
Revisiting Adam Smith and the Division of Labor: New Evidence from U.S. Occupational Data, 1860–1940
Historical U.S. data support Adam Smith’s theory that market growth and innovation boost labor specialization and productivity.
Labor and Demographics
Research Working Paper
|
Nicholas A. Carollo
Elior Cohen
Jingyi Huang
Expandable Row
|
September 3, 2025
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Full Text
Expandable Row
|
Worker and Firm Search in the Labor Market: Evidence from Classified Advertisements
New city-level and national measures of firm and worker job searches offer insight into early 20th-century U.S. labor markets.
Labor and Demographics
Research Working Paper
Macroeconomics
Data and Trends
|
Huixin Bi
Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau
Nora Traum
Greg Woodward
Expandable Row
|
August 1, 2025
Expandable Row
|
Web Page
Full Text
Expandable Row
|
