Tenth District manufacturing activity fell at a steady pace, but expectations for future activity remained positive (Chart 1, Tables 1 & 2). Price indexes picked up slightly this month, but raw materials price growth cooled somewhat from this time last year.
The month-over-month composite index was -5 in January, unchanged from -5 in December and down slightly from -4 in November (Tables 1 & 2). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Both durable and nondurable manufacturing activity declined slightly, with paper manufacturing marking increases and printing manufacturing marking decreases. All month-over-month indexes were negative, except for the employment, prices, and finished goods inventories indexes. Production ticked down from -6 to -9 while new orders increased from -16 to -6. Most year-over-year indexes were negative, but many picked up from last month, as the composite index increased from -16 to -9. Other than the prices indexes, capital expenditures is the only index with a positive reading, cooling from 5 to 1. The future composite index ticked down from 17 to 15 in January as expectations for future production and new orders growth cooled.
Manufacturing Composite Indexes
Skip to data visualization table| Date | Vs. a Month Ago | Vs. a Year Ago |
|---|---|---|
| Jan-24 | -9 | -12 |
| Feb-24 | -4 | -8 |
| Mar-24 | -6 | -4 |
| Apr-24 | -7 | -12 |
| May-24 | -2 | -6 |
| Jun-24 | -7 | -9 |
| Jul-24 | -11 | -13 |
| Aug-24 | -4 | -14 |
| Sep-24 | -8 | -17 |
| Oct-24 | -5 | -14 |
| Nov-24 | -4 | -18 |
| Dec-24 | -5 | -16 |
| Jan-25 | -5 | -9 |
Special Questions
This month contacts were asked special questions about their firms’ imports and exports. A majority of firms (55%) sell 1% to 25% of their products or services outside of the U.S., and two-thirds (67%) source 1% to 25% of their inputs from outside the U.S. Additionally, over one-third (36%) of firms do not sell any of their products or services outside the U.S., while only 16% of firms do not source any of their inputs from outside the U.S. (Chart 2). Further, a majority of contacts do not anticipate the share of their inputs or products sourced from outside of the U.S. to change in the next year (57%) or in the next 3 years (53%). Nearly a quarter (23%) of firms expect the share to decrease slightly in the next year and next 3 years, 16% of firms expect the share to increase slightly in the next year, and 18% of firms expect it to increase slightly in the next 3 years (Chart 3).
Selected Manufacturing Comments
“We are anticipating business improving into the next year and it needs to get better. Foreign imports and dumping, along with lower demand over the last 6 months has created a challenging business environment.”
“Excess capacity - struggling to find new business.”
“During the past month, employee productivity was impacted by illness.”
“Still optimistic for manufacturing turnaround in 2025.”
“Generally, business is very good so far in January - haven't seen the annual Q1 slowdown at all so far. Labor is relatively accessible at the moment.”
“The overall cost of doing business remains high, and looks like it will increase faster than our customers’ budgets.”
“We are excited about the future, realizing that the past few years have been great, and probably hard to match or beat.”