Factory Activity Grew Further
The month-over-month composite index was 10 in April, down from 11 in March and up from 5 in February (Tables 1 & 2). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Durable manufacturing activity declined, while nondurable manufacturing activity increased further, driven primarily by food manufacturing. The month-over-month indexes were all positive except for new orders for exports and employee count. Most year-over-year indexes were positive except for backlog of orders, employment indexes, and materials inventory. Expectations for future activity continued to rise with the composite index increasing from 16 to 18, as expectations for production and new orders rose further.
Manufacturing Composite Indexes
Skip to data visualization table| Date | Vs. a Month Ago | Vs. a Year Ago |
|---|---|---|
| 4/1/2025 | -2 | -8 |
| 5/1/2025 | -3 | -5 |
| 6/1/2025 | -1 | -14 |
| 7/1/2025 | 1 | -5 |
| 8/1/2025 | 1 | -2 |
| 9/1/2025 | 3 | -7 |
| 10/1/2025 | 4 | -6 |
| 11/1/2025 | 7 | -1 |
| 12/1/2025 | 0 | -4 |
| 1/1/2026 | 0 | -4 |
| 2/1/2026 | 5 | 2 |
| 3/1/2026 | 11 | 8 |
| 4/1/2026 | 10 | 6 |
Special Questions
This month, contacts were asked special questions about changes in energy costs and ability to pass through energy-related costs. Almost all (93%) of firms reported that they have experienced higher transportation costs in the last two months, 7% experienced no change in transportation costs, 43% of firms experienced higher heating (natural gas) costs, 53% experienced no change in their heating costs, and 4% experienced lower heating costs. Over a third (38%) of firms experienced higher electricity costs in the last two months, while 62% of firms experienced no change in their electricity costs (Chart 2). Firms were also asked about their ability to pass on higher energy-related cost increases to their customers. Over two-thirds of firms that have experienced higher energy related costs will pass on 0-20% of their higher energy related costs, 3% will pass on 21-40% of their costs, 8% will pass on 41-60% of their costs, 4% will pass on 61-80%, 8% will pass on 81-100%, 1% of firms will pass on more than 100% of their higher energy related costs, and 6% of firms have had to decrease prices (Chart 3).
Selected Manufacturing Comments
“We have seen past-due invoices / late payments / bad debt expense rise in 2026 above normal levels.”
“The uncertainty in the business environment continues, making it difficult to formulate long term plans. Most of our efforts are being put into managing the short-term timeframe.”
“We are considering a blanket price increase mid-year to account for increases in RM and transportation.”
“This month was down compared to last month because last month was an all-time record. This month was more of an average month.”
“Very tough business environment.”
“Our inventory is decreasing, but it is due to supply chain constraints not because we are trying to lower inventory. We can't get it into the warehouse fast enough. Our inbound capacity is underutilized right now. It is going out faster than we can replenish it.”
“International demand has dropped off rapidly.”
“Our costs are up again due to market instability. We cannot increase them again without losing customers.”
Survey Data
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City or the Federal Reserve System.
Authors
Cortney Cowley
Assistant Vice President and Oklahoma City Branch Executive
