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RWP 25-12, October 2025

Model selection criteria are one of the most important tools in statistics. Proofs showing a model selection criterion is asymptotically optimal are tailored to the type of model (linear regression, quantile regression, penalized regression, etc.), the estimation method (linear smoothers, maximum likelihood, generalized method of moments, etc.), the type of data (i.i.d., dependent, high dimensional, etc.), and the type of model selection criterion. Moreover, assumptions are often restrictive and unrealistic making it a slow and winding process for researchers to determine if a model selection criterion is selecting an optimal model. This paper provides general proofs showing asymptotic optimality for a wide range of model selection criteria under general conditions. This paper not only asymptotically justifies model selection criteria for most situations, but it also unifies and extends a range of previously disparate results.

JEL Classifications: C52, C50, C10

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The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City or the Federal Reserve System.

Author

Amaze Lusompa

Economist

Amaze Lusompa is an Economist in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Prior to joining the department in 2020, Amaze received a Ph.D. in …

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