Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Research
Our monetary policy and macroeconomic research focuses on national and international economic issues.
Latest Research
A New U.S. Productivity Chapter? What Industry Data Say About AI
AI adoption aligns with faster productivity growth across industries but has yet to explain the aggregate gain in productivity.
Inflation Persistence as an Outcome of Monetary Policy
A muted monetary policy response may explain inflation persistence during 2021–22.
Investigating the Recent Decline in Community College Enrollment
Community college enrollment has fallen since 2010, driven mainly by demand factors.
Introducing New Monthly Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and Natural Unemployment Rate
The Kansas City Fed’s measures of r* and u* provide more timely data on labor market tightness and the stance of monetary policy.
Who Uses AI for Pricing?
Larger firms are more likely to use AI to set prices, and firms that have adopted AI have grown larger and more profitable.
What Do LLMs Want?
Large language models (LLMs) seem more impatient and altruistic than humans in economic experiments.
Text Sentiment About Monetary Policy
Text-based analysis of FOMC meeting transcripts can help identify the evolution of members’ perceptions of economic conditions.
Higher Treasury Supply Is Likely to Put Upward Pressure on Interest Rates
U.S. government debt has grown over time, expanding the supply of Treasuries and putting upward pressure on interest rates.
Financial Constraints and Employment Dynamics following Natural Disasters
Financial constraints can weigh on credit access and employment after a natural disaster—even outside the affected area.