Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Research
Our monetary policy and macroeconomic research focuses on national and international economic issues.
Latest Research
What Do LLMs Want?
Large language models (LLMs) seem more impatient and altruistic than humans in economic experiments.
Text Sentiment About Monetary Policy
Text-based analysis of FOMC meeting transcripts can help identify the evolution of members’ perceptions of economic conditions.
Higher Treasury Supply Is Likely to Put Upward Pressure on Interest Rates
U.S. government debt has grown over time, expanding the supply of Treasuries and putting upward pressure on interest rates.
Financial Constraints and Employment Dynamics following Natural Disasters
Financial constraints can weigh on credit access and employment after a natural disaster—even outside the affected area.
Understanding the Role of Wealth in Worker Flows
Workers in wealthier households tend to experience lower job loss rates and switch jobs less frequently.
An Alternative Version of the KC Fed LMCI Suggests Labor Market Momentum Decelerated in October
A version of the LMCI that excludes delayed government data suggests activity remained stable but momentum sharply decelerated.
Assessing Labor Market Conditions Across Regions
A new version of the LMCI calculated at the Census division level can capture variation in regional labor market conditions.
Jackson Hole Recap: How Demographics and Technology Are Influencing Productivity and Labor Markets
At the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, participants discussed how demographics and AI are shaping labor markets.
Complementary Effects of Financial Education and Payday Lending Regulations on Financial Inclusion
Financial education reduces adults’ likelihood of being unbanked, particularly in states where payday lending is also restricted.