Center for Agriculture and the Economy
Leveraging expertise from the Kansas City Fed, the Center provides timely analysis of industry developments and conducts ongoing research on the agricultural economy.
U.S. Agricultural Trade Projected to Increase in 2026
By Cortney Cowley
October 2, 2026
Agricultural exports from the United States are on pace to increase in 2026 but may not reach the historically high levels from 2022. Although exports to China increased by nearly 50% in the first half of 2026, the 78% decline from 2022 to 2025 has left a large void in trade of U.S. agricultural products that has been difficult to fill. Agricultural exports to other countries have continued to increase, especially to Mexico. Although Canada remains the second largest trade partner for U.S. agricultural products, growth has been stagnant in that market for four years.
Notes: Projected exports for 2026 are based on data from January through July for 2025 and 2026.
Source: USDA GATS and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City staff calculations
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Through regular surveys, analysis and connections across the industry, the Kansas City Fed has had a longstanding focus on U.S. and global agriculture. Leveraging this expertise, the Center for Agriculture and the Economy serves as a resource within the Federal Reserve System by providing timely analysis of industry developments and conducting ongoing research on the agricultural economy. The Kansas City Fed is committed to understanding developments in the agricultural economy and gathering perspectives from rural America in order to include them in discussions on the national economy.
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Agriculture is central to the Kansas City Fed’s 10th District’s economy, from farm production and food manufacturing to agricultural banking and finance. Through its regular surveys, analysis and connections across the industry, the Kansas City Fed has had a longstanding focus on the U.S. and global agricultural economy. At the same time, connecting with stakeholders and ag industry professionals through events, round tables and conversations is critical to the Bank’s work.