Center for Agriculture and the Economy
Leveraging expertise from the Kansas City Fed, the Center provides timely analysis of industry developments and conducts ongoing research on the agricultural economy.
Risks From Disruptions in Global Fertilizer Markets Vary Across the U.S. and Brazil
May 13, 2026
By Ayesha Cooray
The level of exposure to disruptions in global fertilizer markets from conflict in the Middle East varies across the U.S. and Brazil given their respective import dependence, trade partners, and long-term trends in fertilizer use. The U.S. produces the majority of its fertilizer domestically with dependence on critical inputs limited to nearby trade partners like Canada and Peru. Brazil, on the other hand, depends almost entirely on imported fertilizer from trade partners that include Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia who rely on the Strait of Hormuz for transit. While producers in both countries face higher prices, those in Brazil face greater near-term risk of fertilizer shortages and consequently lower production.
In the United States, growth in corn and soybean yields has largely outpaced fertilizer use over the last 25 years due to improvements in plant genetics and innovations in nutrient management. By contrast, gains in Brazilian corn and soybean yields over time have been fueled by more intensive fertilizer use. This is particularly true for corn where the cost of fertilizer per bushel in Brazil is a higher component of operating costs than in the U.S. As such, any persistence in higher fertilizer prices over 2026 and 2027 implies tighter profit margin compression for Brazilian producers.
Note: Corn and soybean yield for the U.S. and Brazil depict the metric tons harvested per hectare of land used in the cultivation for each crop. Fertilizer use refers to total fertilizer consumption across nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers in kilograms per hectare of arable land.
Sources: USDA Production, Supply and Distribution Statistics; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Find additional Insights on Agricultural and Rural Economies.
Research and Information
Agricultural Finance
Research and articles tracking trends in agricultural finance.
Insights on Ag and Rural Economies
Concise analysis on agricultural and rural economic trends.
Agricultural Data and Indicators
Data on economic and financial conditions in agriculture.
Agriculture Research Hub
All of the Kansas City Fed's research and resources on agriculture and related topics.
System Resources
Links to research and resources on agriculture and rural topics from throughout the Federal Reserve System.
Latest Research and Updates
Agriculture
-
Deterioration in Farm Financial Conditions Remains Gradual | -
Growth in Farm Lending Activity Persists | -
Strong Farm Loan Demand Supports Ag Bank Earnings | -
Firm-Level Pass-Through of Supply Chain Disruptions: Insights from the U.S. Beef Market | -
Disparate Conditions in Crop and Livestock Sectors Evident in Credit Conditions | -
Omaha Branch holds Economic Forum |
Agricultural Finance
-
Growth in Farm Lending Activity Persists | -
Strong Farm Loan Demand Supports Ag Bank Earnings | -
Farmland Values Remained Strong in 2025 | -
Farmland Values Remain Firm Despite Deterioration in Farm Finances | -
Larger Operating Loans Boost Farm Lending Activity in 2025 | -
Tighter Liquidity and Improved Earnings at Agricultural Banks |
The Kansas City Fed's Continuing Commitment to Agriculture
Through regular surveys, analysis and connections across the industry, the Kansas City Fed has had a longstanding focus on U.S. and global agriculture. Leveraging this expertise, the Center for Agriculture and the Economy serves as a resource within the Federal Reserve System by providing timely analysis of industry developments and conducting ongoing research on the agricultural economy. The Kansas City Fed is committed to understanding developments in the agricultural economy and gathering perspectives from rural America in order to include them in discussions on the national economy.
The Kansas City Fed's Ag Connection
Agriculture is central to the Kansas City Fed’s 10th District’s economy, from farm production and food manufacturing to agricultural banking and finance. Through its regular surveys, analysis and connections across the industry, the Kansas City Fed has had a longstanding focus on the U.S. and global agricultural economy. At the same time, connecting with stakeholders and ag industry professionals through events, round tables and conversations is critical to the Bank’s work.