Center for Agriculture and the Economy
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Crop Farmers Could Face Slight Profit Margin Compression After Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz
April 2, 2026
By Francisco Scott
Disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz have driven up production costs for U.S. crop farmers, even as higher commodity prices created profit opportunities for some. From early February to late March, urea prices, a key source of nitrogen fertilizer, rose about 50%, and diesel prices increased more than 45%. As planting season approaches, input price hikes could squeeze profit margins, especially if cost increases outweigh the nearly 10% gain in December corn futures prices since the beginning of the year.
Some producers are likely to see a slight decline in profit margins due to the disruption, particularly those who have not prepaid or contracted fertilizer. Before March, USDA forecasts suggested that the cost of producing a bushel of corn would exceed average corn prices by $0.07 in 2026. As of mid-March, this gap has likely widened to $0.12 per bushel. Average expected margins have declined alongside higher fertilizer expenses, rising energy costs, and slightly lower yields due to reduced nitrogen application. The recent distribution of government payments could alleviate some pressure on producers, but prolonged disruptions could further strain the supply of energy and fertilizers and influence farmer decision making in future years.
Note: Corn breakeven prices are calculated from USDA’s “Cost and Returns” for 2021 to 2026F, and exclude opportunity cost of labor. Corn prices for 2026 are based on futures prices and set to $4.67/bu before the disruptions, and $4.88/bu in March 2026. We use Iowa State University’s “Estimated Costs of Crop Production” to obtain prices and quantity used of N fertilizer for a typical corn-corn rotation for 2026 before the disruption. We update the price of nitrogen (N) fertilizer for March 2026 based on the increase in urea prices at the Gulf. We assume that farmers adjust N application based on N fertilizer price changes and use the supply disruption from the Russia-Ukraine war to identify the sensitivity of aggregated U.S. N use to prices (elasticity of -0.115). We then use a rule-of-thumb of 1 bu/acre reduction in corn yield from a 1 lbs/acre decrease in N application to update corn yields for March 2026 (Enrria et al., 2024). Finally, we update energy costs in March 2026 based on the percentage increase in Brent crude oil prices and the pass through rate of oil prices to energy prices from Känzig (2021) (elasticity of 0.45).
Sources: USDA, International Fertilizer Association, Iowa State University, Enrria et al. (2024), Känzig (2021), and author’s calculations
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