Craig S. Hakkio

Craig Hakkio is Special Advisor on Economic Policy at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. In this capacity, he conducts research on international macroeconomic policy and monetary policy. He also advises the President of the Bank, who serves on the Federal Open Market Committee, the principal monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System.

Craig has written a number of articles in professional journals and conference proceedings. Mr. Hakkio holds an A.B. degree from Kenyon College and M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in economics from the University of Chicago. After working as an assistant professor of economics at Northwestern University, he joined the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in 1984 as a senior economist. From 1987 to 1988, he was a senior staff economist at the President’s Council of Economic Advisers. He served as Senior Vice President and Director of Research from 1997 to 2006. He was named Special Advisor on Economic Policy (Senior Vice President) in 2006.

Curriculum Vitae

Professional Journals and Books

• "The Marginal Income Tax Rate Schedule from 1930 to 1990"
  with Mark Rush and Timothy J. Schmidt, Journal of Monetary Economics, August 1996
• "The Distribution of Exchange Rates in the EMS"
  with Charles Engel, International Journal of Finance & Economics, vol. 1, no. 1, January 1996
• "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium: Is It Real?"
  with Anne Sibert, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, April 1995
• "Review of 'Profit-Making Speculation in Foreign Exchange Markets' by Surajaras and Sweeney"
  Journal of Finance, Fourth Quarter 1993
• "The Dollar's International Role"
  Contemporary Policy Issues, April 1993
• "Monetary Transmission Channels in Major Foreign Industrial Countries: A Comment"
  Operating Procedures and the Conduct of Monetary Policy: Conference Proceedings, March 1993 (Special Issue Editors: Marvin Goodfriend and David H. Small)
• "Exchange-Rate Management and Monetary Policy Mismanagement: A Study of Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States after Plaza; A Comment"
  Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 36, July 1992
• "Discount Rate Policy under Alternative Operating Regimes: An Empirical Investigation"
  with Douglas Pearce, International Review of Economics and Finance, vol. 1, no. 1, 1992
• "Cointegration: How Short is the Long Run?"
  with Mark Rush, Journal of International Money and Finance, December 1991
• "Is the Budget Deficit 'Too Large?"
  with Mark Rush, Economic Inquiry, July 1991
• "A Note on Physical Depreciation and the Capital Accumulation Process"
  with Bruce C. Petersen, Journal of Development Economics, vol. 34, 1991
• "Exchange Rates During the Reagan Years"
  Ronald Tracy and Anandi Sahu (editors), The Economic Legacy of the Reagan Years, Praeger Publishers, 1991
• "Interpreting an Error Correction Model: Partial Adjustment, Forward Looking Behavior, and Dynamic International Money Demand"
  with Ian Domowitz, Journal of Applied Econometrics, January-March 1990
• "The Probability of Technical Success and R&D Appraisal"
  with James Hodge, Resource and Energy, vol.11, 1989
• "Market Efficiency and Cointegration: An Application to the Sterling and Deutschemark Exchange Markets"
  with Mark Rush, Journal of International Money and Finance, March 1989
• "Does the Exchange Rate Follow a Random Walk? A Monte Carlo Study of Four Tests for a Random Walk"
  Journal of International Money and Finance, June 1986
• "Intertemporal Asset Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest and Exchange Rates: The Eurocurrency Market"
  with Leonardo Leiderman, European Economic Review, April 1986
• "Competition and Collusion, Side-by-Side: The Corrugated Container Antitrust Litigation"
  with Leon Moses, Regulation and Anti-Trust, Ronald Griesen, editor, Lexington Books, Lexington, Mass., 1986
• "The Reaction of Exchange Rates to Economic News"
  with Douglas Pearce, Economic Inquiry, October 1985
• "Conditional Variance and the Risk Premium in the Foreign Exchange Market"
  with Ian Domowitz, Journal of International Economics, August 1985
• Expectations and the Foreign Exchange Market. 
  Garland Publishing Company, New York, 1984
• "A Re-examination of Purchasing Power Parity: A Multi-Country and Multi-Period Study"
  Journal of International Economics, November 1984
• "Discussion of 'Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models' by Lars Peter Hanson and Robert J. Hodrick"
  in Jacob A. Frenkel, ed., Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, the University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1983
• "Exchange Rate Determination and the Demand for Money"
  Review of Economics and Statistics, November 1982
• "Expectations and the Forward Exchange Rate"
  International Economic Review, October 1981
• "The Term Structure of the Forward Premium"
  Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 8, July 1981
• "Country-Specific and Time-Specific Factors in the Demand for International Reserves"
  with Jacob A. Frenkel, Economic Letters, November 1980

Economic Review Articles

• "Bond Premiums and the Natural Real Rate of Interest"   
  with A. Lee Smith, First Quarter 2017
• "Implications of Recent U.S. Energy Trends for Trade Forecasts"
  with Jun Nie, Fourth Quarter 2014
• "Evaluating Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound"
  with George A. Kahn, Second Quarter 2014
• "What Is the Effect of Financial Stress on Economic Activity" 
  Second Quarter 2010
• "Financial Stress: What Is It, How Can It Be Measured, and Why Does It Matter?" 
  with William R. Keeton, Second Quarter 2009
• "PCE and CPI Inflation Differential: Converting Inflation Forecasts" 
  First Quarter 2008
• "Social Security and Medicare: The Impending Fiscal Challenge" 
  First Quarter 2006
•  "Economic Policy for the Information Economy--A Summary of the Bank's 2001 Economic Symposium"
  Fourth Quarter 2001
• "The Discount Window: Time for Reform?" 
  with Gordon H. Sellon, Second Quarter 2000
• "The Effects of Budget Deficit Reduction on the Exchange Rate" 
  Third Quarter 1996
• "The U.S. Current Account: The Other Deficit" 
  Third Quarter 1995
• "Should We Throw Sand in the Gears of Financial Markets?" 
  Second Quarter 1994
• "Exchange Rate Regimes and Volatility" 
  with Charles Engel, Third Quarter 1993
• "Is Purchasing Power Parity a Useful Guide to the Dollar?" 
  Third Quarter 1992
• "Europe 1992: Implications for U.S. Firms" 
  with Thomas Bennett, April 1989
• "Has the Dollar Fallen Enough?"
  with Richard Roberts, July/August 1987
• "Interest Rates and Exchange Rates--What is the Relationship?" 
  November 1986
• "The U.S. Dollar - Recent Developments, Outlook, and Policy Options" 
  with J. Gregg Whittaker, November 1985
• "Is the United States Too Dependent on Foreign Capital?" 
  with Bryon Higgins, June 1985
• "Costs and Benefits of Reducing Inflation" 
  with Bryon Higgins, January 1985
• "Exchange Rate Volatility and Federal Reserve Policy" 
  July/August 1984

The Macro Bulletin

• "Global Uncertainty in the Wake of Brexit"
  with Nicholas Sly
• "Long-Term Survey-Based Inflation Expectations Have Become Better Anchored"
• "The Effect of the U.S. Energy Boom on the Trade Deficit"
  with Jun Nie
• "Are Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Stable?" 
  with Brent Bundick
• "Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI)"
  with Jonathan L. Willis
• "Evaluating Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound"
  with George A. Kahn
• "Assessing Labor Market Conditions: The level of activity and the speed of improvement"
  with Jonathan L. Willis

Research Working Papers

• Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country Data
  with Jun Nie, RWP 18-14
• "Inflation Targeting and Private Sector Forecasts" 
  RWP 10-01
• "Global Inflation Dynamics" 
  RWP 09-01
• "Vector Autoregressions: A User's Guide" 
  with Charles S. Morris, RWP 84-10