A Break in the Link Between Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations
Gasoline prices and consumers’ inflation expectations often move in similar directions. Indeed, the correlation between the two increased noticeably over the last several decades. In 2025, however, that relationship changed dramatically: Gasoline prices declined, while inflation expectations increased with the prospects of higher prices coming from tariffs. If the historical relationship had persisted, inflation expectations might have been 1.5 percentage points lower throughout 2025.
Natural Resources and Environment
Economic Bulletin
Inflation
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Jason P. Brown
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February 20, 2026
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Inflation Persistence as an Outcome of Monetary Policy
Delayed or tepid monetary policy responses can prolong the inflationary effect of temporary economic shocks. When financial markets expect that policymakers are hesitant to raise interest rates in response to an inflationary shock, the shock may have a longer-lasting effect. Research shows that perceptions of a weak policy response can explain the persistent rise and slow decline in inflation during 2021–22, suggesting policymakers may need to consider inflation persistence as an outcome of monetary policy.
Monetary Policy
Economic Bulletin
Inflation
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Taeyoung Doh
Stephen D. Vasiljevic
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February 6, 2026
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EconQuest: Where Learning Meets Real-World Economics
How Do Food Prices Help Measure Inflation?
Consumer Price Index
Economics
Inflation Research
Food Prices
Services
Inflation
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January 27, 2026
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The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
Kansas City Fed President and CEO Jeff Schmid delivered these remarks to the Economic Club of Kansas City.
Jeff Schmid
Speeches
Economic Update
Monetary Policy
Federal Reserve System
Inflation
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January 15, 2026
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Is It Time to Add Food-at-Home Inflation to Measures of Core Inflation?
Since the mid-1970s, the Federal Reserve has used core inflation to examine trends in underlying inflation. Core inflation is considered a more stable measure as it excludes energy and food, historically viewed as the most volatile components of inflation. However, core inflation can be a challenge for central bankers to communicate, as food inflation is highly salient to consumers. We argue that food-at-home inflation has become less volatile over time and could be added to measures of core inflation with few drawbacks.
Monetary Policy
Economic Bulletin
Food Prices
Agriculture
Inflation
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Francisco Scott
José Mustre-del-Río
Amaze Lusompa
Jalen Nichols
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June 6, 2025
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Labor Market Cooling Has Been Uneven Across Industries
The U.S. labor market has cooled over the last two years but remains healthy overall. However, an industry-specific version of the KC Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) suggests pockets of tightness and weakness have appeared in a few industries. Tightness appears to be limited to less labor-intensive industries, limiting upside risk to inflation. Weakness, on the other hand, has appeared in the interest-rate-sensitive information industry, which may be vulnerable to further labor market cooling.
Labor and Demographics
Monetary Policy
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
Inflation
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Karlye Dilts Stedman
Emily Pollard
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January 31, 2025
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Maintaining the Anchor: An Evaluation of Inflation Targeting in the Face of COVID-19
Globally, central banks prevented high inflation post-pandemic from becoming embedded in inflation expectations.
Covid-19 Research
Research Working Paper
Monetary Policy
Macroeconomics
Inflation
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Brent Bundick
A. Lee Smith
Luca Van der Meer
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December 20, 2024
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The Passthrough of Agricultural Commodity Prices to Food Prices
Agricultural commodities prices have had a small and uncertain effect on changes in food prices at least since 2008.
Research Working Paper
Food Prices
Agriculture
Inflation
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Francisco Scott
Amaze Lusompa
David Rodziewicz
Cortney Cowley
Jacob Dice
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December 20, 2024
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Ask an Economist: Housing services prices
Jordan Rappaport explains why the pace of the decline in U.S. housing services inflation bears watching.
Ask an Economist
Ten Magazine
Housing Trends
Housing
Inflation
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November 5, 2024
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Cost of Childcare Increasingly Weighs on Labor Force Engagement
Problems attaining childcare have weighed on workers’ engagement in the labor force for some time. A few years ago, pandemic disruptions were the primary culprit in the lower consumption of childcare services. Now, the rising cost of childcare may be to blame. As wage growth moderates, higher childcare costs could place added pressure on households and cause some workers to at least partially disengage from the workforce.
Labor and Demographics
Regional
Economic Bulletin
Inflation
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John McCoy
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October 9, 2024
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