Business Activity Declined Moderately in November
The month-over-month services composite index was -7 in November, down from -5 in October, and up from -9 in September (Tables 1 & 2). The composite index is a weighted average of the revenue/sales, employment, and inventory indexes. Activity in the auto services and tourism sectors fell, while information services activity increased slightly. Most month-over-month indexes were negative except price indexes and wages. The monthly general revenue/sales index ticked up from -5 to -4, while employment declined from -4 to -16. The year-over-year composite index cooled from 8 to 6, along with revenue index growth easing from 14 to 8. Capital expenditures decreased from 17 to 5. Expectations for future services activity fell slightly, with expectations for general revenue/sales remaining positive while employment expectations declined.
Services Composite Indexes
Skip to data visualization table| Date | Vs. a Month Ago | Vs. a Year Ago |
|---|---|---|
| Nov-24 | 8 | 15 |
| Dec-24 | 4 | 24 |
| Jan-25 | -4 | 17 |
| Feb-25 | 2 | 6 |
| Mar-25 | 0 | 2 |
| Apr-25 | 3 | 11 |
| May-25 | 11 | 8 |
| Jun-25 | 3 | 11 |
| Jul-25 | -5 | 1 |
| Aug-25 | 4 | 12 |
| Sep-25 | -9 | 3 |
| Oct-25 | -5 | 8 |
| Nov-25 | -7 | 6 |
| Nov-24 | 8 | 15 |
Composite Indexes vs. a Year Ago by Sector
Skip to data visualization table| Date | Consumer Services | Business Services |
|---|---|---|
| Nov-24 | 19 | 5 |
| Dec-24 | 30 | 11 |
| Jan-25 | 25 | 2 |
| Feb-25 | 1 | 14 |
| Mar-25 | 1 | 4 |
| Apr-25 | 10 | 12 |
| May-25 | 9 | 5 |
| Jun-25 | 8 | 17 |
| Jul-25 | -7 | 17 |
| Aug-25 | 14 | 7 |
| Sep-25 | 6 | -3 |
| Oct-25 | 20 | -15 |
| Nov-25 | 11 | -5 |
| Nov-24 | 19 | 5 |
Special Questions
This month, contacts were asked special questions about changes in employment and wages. A quarter of firms expect to decrease employment, 44% expect to leave employment unchanged, and 31% expect to increase employment (Chart 2). Approximately a third of firms (31%) reported they will be increasing wages and salaries for existing employees by a similar amount as in the past few years, while 14% of firms plan to increase wages and salaries more than in the past few years for only selected job categories, 17% plan to increase more than in the past few years for most job categories, 10% plan to increase for existing employees by less than in the past few years, 23% of firms plan to leave wages and salaries unchanged for most existing employees, 4% of firms are cutting wages for some employees, and 1% do not plan to make any of the provided changes to wages and salaries (Chart 3).
Selected Services Comments
“We have less demand for services in 2026 vs 2025, at the same time of year.”
“It appears that people are asking for higher wages. If they don't get what they are requesting, they will stay at their current job and or stay unemployed.”
“Current negative cashflow is the result of trying to grow the business and create long term salable assets.”
“Uncertainty dominates.”
“The economic uncertainty in pricing is making it difficult to do any long-term planning. Our vendor has raised prices, but they are also telling us they may have to raise them more in the upcoming months.”
“Sales are increasing steadily each month. Our repossessions and charge off accounts are trending down. We are still having issues with increasing our corporate credit lines to add more business.”
“There is a lot of uncertainty out there right now.”
Survey Data
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City or the Federal Reserve System.