Skip to main content
Kansas City Fed Logo
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Kansas City Fed Denver  /  Oklahoma City  /  Omaha

Economic Bulletin Archive

The Economic Bulletin offers snapshots of the Kansas City Fed's latest economic findings and perspectives on national economic conditions and issues related to monetary policy, industries, and markets. The publication launched in 2013 as The Macro Bulletin and became the Economic Bulletin in 2019.

To receive email alerts for new Economic Bulletin articles, External Linksubscribe here.

183 result(s) found
Article Title Author(s) Date Type

When the Music Stops: Slowing Wage Growth May Lead to More Delinquent Debt

Subprime auto debt has risen nearly 10 percent above pre-pandemic levels, and delinquency rates have increased despite high wage growth in the economy. Historically, high wage growth has been associated with lower transitions into delinquency. Should wage growth slow, delinquency rates would likely rise even higher, especially among subprime borrowers.

 Jason P. Brown
Colton Tousey Expandable Row
March 24, 2023
Expandable Row 		Expandable Row

A Tight Labor Market Could Keep Rent Inflation Elevated

Rent inflation responds more to labor market conditions compared with other components of inflation. We attribute this link between labor market tightness and rent inflation to greater demand for rental units afforded by job gains and wage growth. Although online measures of asking rents currently suggest official measures of rent inflation will decline, we caution that rent inflation is likely to remain above pre-pandemic levels so long as the labor market remains tight.

 Brent Bundick
A. Lee Smith
Luca Van der Meer Expandable Row
March 1, 2023
Expandable Row 		Expandable Row

Pushing the Limit: Last-Minute Debt Limit Resolutions Have Increased Market Volatility and Uncertainty

Since reaching the debt limit in January 2023, the U.S. Treasury has used extraordinary measures to fund the government. However, the Treasury estimates those measures will be exhausted later this year. To gauge possible effects, we review economic and financial market outcomes during previous debt limit episodes. In each case, these episodes led to increased borrowing costs, financial market volatility, and uncertainty, particularly when the resolutions were prolonged.

 Stefan A. Jacewitz
W. Blake Marsh
Nicholas Sly Expandable Row
February 22, 2023
Expandable Row 		Expandable Row

Home Prices Are Overvalued but Will Decline Only Gradually

The surge in home prices since the start of the pandemic and the sharp increase in interest rates during 2022 have made purchasing a home much less affordable. Homeownership costs relative to rents suggest home prices are considerably overvalued. However, relief is unlikely in the near future: owners have an incentive to remain in their current homes until rates decrease, mitigating downward pressure on prices.

 Jordan Rappaport Expandable Row
February 17, 2023
Expandable Row 		Expandable Row

Gasoline Prices Unlikely to Bring Down Inflation in 2023

Gasoline prices can influence inflation both directly (by changing prices at the pump) and indirectly (by shaping consumers’ inflation expectations). Through these channels, gasoline prices have played an important role in the run-up and recent decline in inflation. Although gasoline prices have declined from their all-time highs, they are expected to remain relatively stable in 2023. As a result, gasoline prices are unlikely to deliver further reductions in either inflation or inflation expectations this year.

 Nida Çakır Melek
Francis M. Dillon
A. Lee Smith Expandable Row
February 15, 2023
Expandable Row 		Expandable Row

The KC Fed LMCI Momentum Indicator Suggests Monetary Policy Is Beginning to Weigh on Labor Markets

The Federal Open Market Committee has been quickly raising the federal funds rate to lower inflation. However, services inflation remains high, supported by a tight labor market with high wage growth. Recent readings in the LMCI momentum indicator suggest monetary policy tightening is beginning to weigh on labor markets, which may eventually lead to lower services inflation and lower inflation overall.

 José Mustre-del-Río
Emily Pollard Expandable Row
February 3, 2023
Expandable Row 		Expandable Row

Data file for "The KC Fed LMCI Momentum Indicator Suggests Monetary Policy Is Beginning to Weigh on Labor Market"

Data file for "The KC Fed LMCI Momentum Indicator Suggests Monetary Policy Is Beginning to Weigh on Labor Market" by José Mustre-del-Río and Emily Pollard.

 Emily Pollard
José Mustre-del-Río Expandable Row
February 3, 2023
Expandable Row 		Expandable Row

Have Lags in Monetary Policy Transmission Shortened?

The Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary policy has expanded beyond changing the federal funds rate to include forward guidance and balance sheet policy. Using these tools may shorten lags in monetary policy transmitting to inflation. Using a proxy funds rate that incorporates tightening from these additional policy tools, we find evidence of a shorter lag in policy transmission to inflation since 2009, though with high associated uncertainty.

 Taeyoung Doh
Andrew T. Foerster Expandable Row
December 21, 2022
Expandable Row 		Expandable Row

Data file for "Have Lags in Monetary Policy Transmission Shortened?"

Data for Charts 1 and 2 for "Have Lags in Monetary Policy Transmission Shortened?" by Taeyoung Doh and Andrew T. Foerster.

 Taeyoung Doh
Andrew Foerster Expandable Row
December 21, 2022
Expandable Row 		Expandable Row

Is Bank Capital Regulation Driving Continued Use of the Overnight Reverse Repurchase (ON RRP) Facility?

Use of the Federal Reserve’s overnight reverse repurchase (ON RRP) facility rose in 2022, coinciding with deposit outflows and declining reserves at commercial banks. A popular narrative suggests that regulatory capital requirements discouraged bank deposit-taking, driving up ON RRP use. However, this story neglects important contributors to the ON RRP’s surge. We find that limited money market investment opportunities, policy uncertainty, and administrative changes likely explain increased ON RRP activity.

 W. Blake Marsh
Rajdeep Sengupta Expandable Row
December 16, 2022
Expandable Row 		Expandable Row
Showing
Results Showing Per Page
  • 10Selected
  • 25Press Enter to Select.
  • 50Press Enter to Select.
  • 100Press Enter to Select.
results per page.