Economic Bulletin Archive

The Economic Bulletin offers snapshots of the Kansas City Fed's latest economic findings and perspectives on national economic conditions and issues related to monetary policy, industries, and markets. The publication launched in 2013 as The Macro Bulletin and became the Economic Bulletin in 2019.

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221 result(s) found
Article Title Author(s) Date Type

Rising Immigration Has Helped Cool an Overheated Labor Market

The United States has experienced a substantial influx of immigrants over the past two years. In 2023, net international migration surpassed its pre-pandemic peak. This flow of immigrant workers has acted as a powerful catalyst in cooling overheated labor markets and tempering wage growth across industries and states.

Elior Cohen Expandable Row
May 22, 2024
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Consumer Debt Is High, but Consumers Seem to Have Room to Run

Real consumer debt is now higher than its prior peak during the global financial crisis, driven in part by increases in credit card debt. Although the share of credit card debt transitioning into delinquency has risen, it remains below levels seen during the global financial crisis. Moreover, debt-to-income measures remain historically low, suggesting that consumers in aggregate may have more room to run up debt before experiencing further financial stress.

Jason P. Brown
Colton Tousey Expandable Row
May 17, 2024
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Data file for "What Has Driven the Recent Increase in Retirements?" Updated April 2024

Data file for the paper, "What Has Driven the Recent Increase in Retirements?" by Jun Nie and Shu-Kuei X. Yang, updated through April 1, 2024.

Jun Nie
Shu-Kuei X. Yang Expandable Row
May 15, 2024
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Current Monetary Policy May Be Less Restrictive Than It Seems

Compared with most historical inflationary episodes since the 1960s, the current U.S. inflation cycle features both higher core inflation and a more resilient real economy. This co-movement of prices and real activity suggests monetary policy has not sufficiently reduced demand. We examine the current policy stance and argue that interest rates may indeed be less restrictive than commonly thought. To lower inflation to 2 percent, the Federal Reserve may have to maintain a restrictive policy stance for some time.

Johannes Matschke
Alice von Ende-Becker Expandable Row
May 3, 2024
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Banks’ Commercial Real Estate Risks Are Uneven

Investors have been acutely attuned to commercial real estate (CRE) risks recently due to higher interest rates and changes in how Americans work. On the surface, these risks may seem particularly concerning for small and regional banks, which tend to hold large concentrations of loans backed by commercial properties. However, we show that CRE risks can vary substantially across property types and geographic locations, suggesting that aggregate CRE exposure may be a poor measure of risk.

Jordan Pandolfo
W. Blake Marsh Expandable Row
April 18, 2024
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Foreign-Born Women Have Driven the Recent Increase in Prime-Age Women in the Labor Force

The labor force participation rate of prime-age (25 to 54) women declined dramatically during the pandemic-led recession but has since recovered to an all-time high. We examine how different groups have contributed to this rebound and find that foreign-born women, particularly those with a bachelor’s degree, account for most of the increase in the number of prime-age women in the labor force. Immigration, in turn, fueled the increase in the number of foreign-born women in the labor force.

Didem Tüzemen
Emily Pollard Expandable Row
April 15, 2024
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Data file for "What Has Driven the Recent Increase in Retirements?" Updated through March 1, 2024

Data file for the paper, "What Has Driven the Recent Increase in Retirements?" by Jun Nie and Shu-Kuei X. Yang, updated through March 1, 2024.

Jun Nie
Shu-Kuei X. Yang Expandable Row
April 15, 2024
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Data file for "Not Bullish: U.S. Cattle Herds Hung Up on Higher Interest Expenses"

Data file for the paper, "Not Bullish: U.S. Cattle Herds Hung Up on Higher Interest Expenses" by Cortney Cowley, Ty Kreitman and Francisco Scott.

Ty Kreitman
Cortney Cowley
Ty Kreitman
Francisco Scott Expandable Row
March 30, 2024
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Not Bullish: U.S. Cattle Herds Hung Up on Higher Interest Expenses

Cattle inventories declined to historically low levels at the start of 2024. Cattle producers may face challenges maintaining or restocking herds, as higher interest expenses on cattle and input purchases in 2022–23 have constrained profit margins. Although feed costs have decreased slightly, higher costs for financing and other operating expenses could continue to put pressure on cattle production and profitability.

Cortney Cowley
Ty Kreitman
Francisco Scott Expandable Row
March 29, 2024
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Downtown Office Use Has Declined, but Some Metropolitan Areas Are Faring Better than Others

Hybrid working has cut demand for office space, especially in the downtowns of medium and large metropolitan areas. However, the degree of this decline has varied considerably across metropolitan downtowns, with demand remaining solid in many.

Jordan Rappaport Expandable Row
March 25, 2024
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