Corporate Profits Contributed a Lot to Inflation in 2021 but Little in 2022—A Pattern Seen in Past Economic Recoveries
By Andrew Glover, José Mustre-del-Río, and Jalen Nichols
May 12, 2023

Corporate profits contributed a similar amount to inflation during the pandemic recovery as in past recoveries.

Will High Underlying Inflation Persist?
By Amaze Lusompa and Sai A. Sattiraju
May 10, 2023

Underlying (or prevailing) inflation could near 2 percent next year if current inflation forecasts are realized.

China’s Post-COVID Recovery: Implications and Risks
By Thomas R. Cook and Johannes Matschke
May 5, 2023

China’s economy has begun to rebound, driven by domestic consumption.

Tight Labor Markets Have Been a Key Contributor to High Food Inflation
By Francisco Scott, Cortney Cowley, Ty Kreitman
April 19, 2023

Processed foods, which are more labor intensive than other food items, have driven up grocery prices.

Why Has Monetary Policy Tightening Not Cooled the Labor Market Enough to Quell Inflation?
By Karlye Dilts Stedman and Emily Pollard
March 31, 2023

Labor markets in the services sector are less sensitive to changes in interest rates.

When the Music Stops: Slowing Wage Growth May Lead to More Delinquent Debt
By Jason P. Brown and Colton Tousey
March 24, 2023

Should wage growth slow, delinquency rates are likely to rise, particularly for subprime borrowers with auto debt.

A Tight Labor Market Could Keep Rent Inflation Elevated
By Brent Bundick, A. Lee Smith and Luca Van der Meer
March 1, 2023

The outlook for rent inflation depends significantly on labor market tightness.

Pushing the Limit: Last-Minute Debt Limit Resolutions Have Increased Market Volatility and Uncertainty
By Stefan Jacewitz, W. Blake Marsh, and Nicholas Sly
February 22, 2023

Previous U.S. debt ceiling episodes led to increased borrowing costs, financial market volatility, and uncertainty.

Home Prices Are Overvalued but Will Decline Only Gradually
By Jordan Rappaport
February 17, 2023

Purchasing a home has become much less affordable, with relief unlikely in the near term.

External LinkGasoline Prices Unlikely to Bring Down Inflation in 2023
By External LinkNida Çakır Melek, Francis M. Dillon, and External LinkA. Lee Smith
February 15, 2023

Gasoline prices are unlikely to relieve inflationary pressures any further this year.

The KC Fed LMCI Momentum Indicator Suggests Monetary Policy Is Beginning to Weigh on Labor Markets
By José Mustre-del-Río and Emily Pollard
February 3, 2023

The LMCI momentum indicator turned negative in November 2022, a sign that the labor market may be softening.


Have Lags in Monetary Policy Transmission Shortened?
By Taeyoung Doh and Andrew T. Foerster
December 21, 2022

Using monetary policy tools beyond the federal funds rate may have shortened the lag in policy transmission since 2009.

External LinkIs Bank Capital Regulation Driving Continued Use of the Overnight Reverse Repurchase (ON RRP) Facility?
By External LinkW. Blake Marsh and External LinkRajdeep Sengupta
December 16, 2022

Limited investment opportunities, policy uncertainty, and administrative changes likely explain ongoing increases in ON RRP use.

Negative Sentiment toward Spending and Declining Real Incomes May Meaningfully Lower Consumption
By External LinkNida Çakır Melek and Emily Pollard
November 8, 2022

Households have continued to make purchases despite very negative sentiment toward spending—but this behavior will likely change.

Disruptions to Russian Energy Supply Likely to Weigh on European Output
By Thomas R. Cook, Amaze Lusompa and Jun Nie
November 4, 2022

A decline in the supply of oil and gas from Russia could lead to a sizable drop in European output over 2023–24.

External LinkLabor Market May Remain Tight until Labor Demand Cools Further
By Didem Tüzemen
October 21, 2022

Without further cooling in labor demand, labor supply may continue to fall short.

External LinkMarijuana Industry Has Boosted Economic Activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District
By Alison Felix and Samantha Shampine
October 6, 2022

The expanding marijuana industry has created jobs and increased commercial real estate demand and tax revenues in the region.

Commodity Prices Have Limited Influence on U.S. Food Inflation
By Cortney Cowley and Francisco Scott
September 23, 2022

Shifts in consumer behavior and higher costs along the supply chain have contributed to a surge in food prices.

Price Pressures for U.S. Exporters and a Strong Dollar Have Increased Inflation in Foreign Countries
By Johannes Matschke and Sai A. Sattiraju
August 31, 2022

A strong U.S. dollar and price pressures for U.S. exporters have driven up export prices and, in turn, foreign inflation.

Recent Appreciation in the U.S. Dollar Unlikely to Have Large Effect on Domestic Inflation
By Johannes Matschke and Sai A. Sattiraju
August 17, 2022

Because U.S. imports are billed primarily in U.S. dollars, a strong dollar is unlikely to dampen inflation.

A Slowdown in Job Vacancies is Likely to Coincide with Higher Unemployment and Slower Wage Growth
By Huixin Bi, Chaitri Gulati and José Mustre-del-Río
August 10, 2022

As economic growth slows, job postings are likely to decline, raising unemployment and dampening wage growth.

Increased Loan Demand and Higher Interest Rates May Benefit Ag Banks
By Francisco Scott
July 13, 2022

Ag banks could see higher net interest margins if supply chain disruptions drive up farm costs or interest rates rise.

Assessing Market Conditions ahead of Quantitative Tightening
By Rajdeep Sengupta and A. Lee Smith
July 11, 2022

Reducing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet may be more disruptive to markets in 2022 than it was in 2017.

Inflation in 1972: A Cautionary Tale
By Cooper Howes
July 1, 2022

Monetary policymakers today can learn from the FOMC’s struggle to curb inflation in the early 1970s.

Disagreement among Households May Foreshadow a Rise in Inflation Expectations
By Andrew Glover
June 29, 2022

A widening distribution of household inflation expectations may signal that median inflation expectations will increase.

How Has the Current Lockdown in China Affected the Global Supply Chain?
By Jun Nie
May 20, 2022

Supply chain disruptions from China’s current COVID-19 restrictions are likely to be less severe than in 2020.

Immigration Shortfall May Be a Headwind for Labor Supply
By Elior Cohen and Samantha Shampine
May 11, 2022

Reduced immigration to the United States in recent years has tightened labor markets.

How Many Workers Are Truly “Missing” from the Labor Force?
By Didem Tuzemen
May 6, 2022

Around 2 million workers are missing from the labor force relative to the pre-pandemic trend.

Dampened Demand for Bank Loans Reflects Supply Bottlenecks, Not a Weakness in the Recovery
By Padma Sharma and Jacob Dice
April 22, 2022

Persistent supply chain disruptions have weighed on retailers' demand for bank loans.

Lower Labor Force Participation Rates and Slower Population Growth Pose Challenges for Employers
By Alison Felix and Samantha Shampine
March 30, 2022

In many states, aging populations and lower birth rates may put additional downward pressure on labor force growth.

Global Supply Chain Disruptions Can Be Seen Anywhere, but Their Costs Are Not the Same Everywhere
By Nicholas Sly and Anson Soderbery
January 12, 2022

Businesses in the Tenth Federal Reserve District are more exposed to increases in global shipping costs.


Bank Profitability Rebounds despite Compressed Interest Margins
By Rajdeep Sengupta and Adam Byrdak
November 17, 2021

Pandemic monetary and fiscal policies helped bank profitability recover.

KC Fed LMCI Suggests that Recent Inflation Is Not Due to the Tight Labor Market
By Andrew Glover, José Mustre-del-Río, and Emily Pollard
October 20, 2021

The KC Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators offer a timely signal of whether current labor market activity is inflationary.

KC Fed LMCI Implies the Labor Market Is Closer to a Full Recovery than the Unemployment Rate Alone Suggests
By Andrew Glover, José Mustre-del-Río, and Emily Pollard
October 19, 2021

Summarizing a wide range of labor market measures, the KC Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators suggest greater improvement in the labor market.

When Normalizing Monetary Policy, the Order of Operations Matters
By Karlye Dilts Stedman and Chaitri Gulati
October 14, 2021

By reducing the balance sheet before raising interest rates, the FOMC may be able to prevent an inverted yield curve.

Federal Enhancements to Unemployment Insurance Supported Tenth District Incomes in 2020
By John McCoy
September 8, 2021

Federal supplements to unemployment insurance greatly mitigated lost income during the pandemic.

What Has Driven the Recent Increase in Retirements?
By Jun Nie and Shu-Kuei X. Yang
August 11, 2021

The share of retirees increased during the pandemic—not because more employees retired but because fewer retirees transitioned back to work.

To Improve the Accuracy of GDP Growth Forecasts, Add Financial Market Conditions
By Thomas R. Cook and Taeyoung Doh
June 4, 2021

Incorporating financial market conditions along with current macroeconomic conditions in forecasts of GDP growth can improve forecast accuracy.

Cell Phone Data Suggest Persistent Differences in Work from Home by Income, Race, and Education during the Pandemic
By Nida Çakır Melek and Sungil Kim
March 31, 2021

A year into the pandemic, differences in work-from-home behavior across income, race, and education persist.

The Evolving Relationship between COVID-19 and Financial Distress
By Kartik Athreya, José Mustre-del-Río, Juan M. Sánchez and Olivia Wilkinson
February 24, 2021

Regions with higher financial distress have seen larger shares of COVID-19 infections and deaths during most of the pandemic.

Consumer Spending Declines, Shifts in Response to the Pandemic
By Alison Felix and Samantha Shampine
February 17, 2021

The spread of COVID-19 dramatically reduced spending and altered the mix of goods and services that consumers purchase.

Hybrid Officing Will Shift Where People and Businesses Decide to Locate
By Jordan Rappaport
February 03, 2021

After the pandemic, a shift to hybrid officing may encourage suburban employers to move their offices closer to city centers.


Pandemic Relief Has Aided Low-Income Individuals: Evidence from Alternative Financial Services
By Ying Lei Toh and Thao Tran
December 30, 2020

The use of alternative financial services has declined among low-income individuals during the pandemic, suggesting relief efforts may have helped them.

PPP Raised Community Bank Revenue but Lowered Profitability
By W. Blake Marsh and Padma Sharma
December 23, 2020

Participation in the Paycheck Protection Program boosted community banks’ revenue but lowered profitability, at least initially.

Why Are Americans Saving So Much of Their Income?
By A. Lee Smith
December 04, 2020

Americans’ precautionary motives to save in 2020 may dampen future consumption.

U.S. Business Applications Surge in the Face of COVID-19
By Jason P. Brown
November 18, 2020

Applications for new businesses have surged in recent months, reversing a decades-long decline.

U.S. Federal Debt Has Increased, but Appears Sustainable for Now
By Huixin Bi, Wenyi Shen and Shu-Chun S. Yang
November 16, 2020

The current federal debt level of almost 100 percent of GDP does not threaten fiscal sustainability.

Were Teleworkable Jobs Pandemic-Proof?
By Didem Tuzemen and Thao Tran
September 30, 2020

The pandemic led to losses in “teleworkable” jobs in addition to jobs that could not be performed from home.

COVID-19 Poses Risks for State and Local Public Pensions
By Alison Felix
August 19, 2020

The current crisis may further strain public pension funding, which has not yet fully recovered from past recessions.

Policymakers Have Options for Additional Accommodation: Forward Guidance and Yield Curve Control
By Brent Bundick and A. Lee Smith
July 15, 2020

Forward guidance about future interest rates could deliver much, though not all, of the policy accommodation of yield curve control.

The G-Spread Suggests Federal Reserve Restored Calm to Treasury Markets
By Karlye Dilts Stedman
July 08, 2020

Federal Reserve interventions calmed Treasury markets after stress from the coronavirus outbreak, according to one measure of Treasury market pressure.

COVID-19 Stuns U.S. and Tenth District Economies, but Both Show Signs of Stabilization
By Jason P. Brown and Alison Felix
June 17, 2020

Recent data suggest signs of improvement after the economic downturn, though a timeline for recovery remains uncertain.

Understanding the Recent Rise in Municipal Bond Yields
By Huixin Bi, W. Blake Marsh, Jacob Dice and Chaitri Gulati
May 27, 2020

The municipal bond sell-off in late March likely reflected investors’ concerns over liquidity rather than credit risk.

COVID-19 Challenges State and Local Government Finances
By Alison Felix
May 13, 2020

State and local governments face liquidity challenges from the coronavirus pandemic in the near term, with substantial budget cuts likely in the next fiscal year.

The Global Pandemic and Run on Shadow Banks
By Rajdeep Sengupta and Fei Xue
May 11, 2020

Elements of the recent period of financial stress can be explained as a run on “shadow banks,” which lack the safeguards of regulated depository institutions.

Women Take a Bigger Hit in the First Wave of Job Losses due to COVID-19
By Didem Tuzemen and Thao Tran
April 16, 2020

Women have experienced more job losses due to COVID-19.

Safe-Haven Performance in the Age of Bitcoin
By Jesse Leigh Maniff, Sabrina Minhas, David Rodziewicz and Becca Ruiz
April 15, 2020

While the 10-year Treasury note and gold have been safe-haven assets in the past, Bitcoin has never behaved like a safe haven.

Coronavirus Dampens China’s First-Quarter GDP
By Yifei Lyu and Jun Nie
April 06, 2020

Statistical models suggest the coronavirus outbreak may have reduced China’s first-quarter real GDP by an annualized rate of 32 percent.

Inflation Expectations Limit the Power of Negative Interest Rates
By Andrew Glover and Emily Pollard
March 25, 2020

The effects of negative interest rates depend in part on inflation expectations.


Women Are Driving the Recent Recovery in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation
By Didem Tüzemen and Thao Tran
December 18, 2019

College-educated women have driven the recent rebound in the prime-age labor force participation rate.

As Manufacturing Weakens, Consumers Pull Back
By José Mustre-del-Río and Emily Pollard
November 13, 2019

As manufacturing activity declines, consumers in manufacturing-heavy states are cutting back on purchases.

Rainy Day Funds Have Grown as State Tax Revenue Strengthens
By Huixin Bi and Jaeheung Bae
October 16, 2019

States have used recent tax revenue increases to shore up rainy day funds.

Assessing the Risk of Extreme Unemployment Outcomes
By Thomas R. Cook and Taeyoung Doh
August 28, 2019

The risk of unexpectedly high unemployment three years in the future has declined from its Great Recession peak.

How Have Banks Responded to Declining Reserve Balances?
By W. Blake Marsh and Rajdeep Sengupta
August 21, 2019

With reserve balances declining, banks are increasing their holdings of other high-quality liquid assets.

Rural Hospital Closures and Growth in Employment and Wages
By Kelly D. Edmiston
July 16, 2019

Rural hospital closures are associated with substantially lower growth in county employment and aggregate wages.

Escaping the Housing Shortage
By Jordan Rappaport
June 05, 2019

Escaping the housing shortage will likely require a sustained shift toward multifamily construction, the freeing up of single-family homes, and the faster relative growth of medium-sized cities.

Drilling Productivity in the United States: What Lies Beneath
By Jason P. Brown, David Rodziewicz and Colton Tousey
May 22, 2019

Drilling productivity increased sixfold from the mid-2000s to early 2017, driven largely by gains in below-ground efficiency.

The Persistent Effects of the Temporary Tightening in Financial Conditions
By Brent Bundick
April 17, 2019

A brief spike in market-based uncertainty near the end of 2018 could have long-lasting effects on the macroeconomy.

Introducing the KC Fed Economic Bulletin
By Willem Van Zandweghe
April 10, 2019

The Macro Bulletin has a new name and focus. The publication’s editor-in-chief, Willem Van Zandweghe, introduces the KC Fed Economic Bulletin and discusses the publication’s expanded scope.

The Outlook for Farmland Values amid Higher Interest Rates
By Cortney Cowley and Nathan Kauffman
April 10, 2019

A reduced spread between interest rates and returns to farmland—along with an increase in farmland sales—suggest farmland values could decline further in 2019.

How Many Reserves Does the Federal Reserve Need to Supply?
By A. Lee Smith
March 06, 2019

A lower interest rate on reserves would allow policymakers to operate with a smaller balance sheet.

What's Driving Leveraged Loan Spreads?
By W. Blake Marsh and Seung Jung Lee
February 27, 2019

Syndicated loan spreads have declined across all loan and borrower types, but the decline has been more pronounced for highly leveraged borrowers and term loans.

Do Changes in the Stock Market Affect Consumer and Business Confidence?
By Willem Van Zandweghe
January 09, 2019

Stock market surprises influence consumer and business confidence, with potential effects on real spending.


Why Is Wage Growth So Low?
By Jun Nie
December 21, 2018

Low productivity growth largely accounts for the recent period of low wage growth.

Trends in the Labor Share Post-2000
By Didem Tüzemen, W. Blake Marsh and Thao Tran
December 07, 2018

After declining for a decade, the labor share of income seems to have stabilized recently, reflecting an increased share of services industries income paid to workers.

The Fiscal Stance of U.S. States
By Huixin Bi and Jaeheung Bae
November 28, 2018

States are better prepared to meet their own budgetary shortfalls in the event of a downturn than the shortfalls of households.

Revamping the Kansas City Financial Stress Index Using the Treasury Repo Rate
By Thomas R. Cook and Taeyoung Doh
October 24, 2018

A revised measure of the Kansas City Financial Stress Index using the Treasury repo rate closely tracks the previous version using the London Interbank Offered Rate.

How Much Would China’s GDP Respond to a Slowdown in Housing Activity?
By Thomas R. Cook, Jun Nie and Aaron Smalter Hall
September 12, 2018

China’s GDP has become more sensitive to declines in real estate activity and housing-related construction.

Auto Loan Delinquency Rates Are Rising, but Mostly among Subprime Borrowers
By Jason P. Brown and Colton Tousey
August 15, 2018

Although auto debt and delinquency rates have increased over the past few years, the credit quality of auto debt has actually improved.

Understanding Hawks and Doves
By George A. Kahn and Amy Oksol
June 27, 2018

Hawks in the FOMC project higher inflation than doves even though their projections assume a tighter path for monetary policy.

Nominal Wage Rigidities and the Future Path of Wage Growth
By José Mustre-del-Río and Emily Pollard
May 10, 2018

Wage growth may remain subdued in the near future, in line with a high share of workers whose wages have not changed.

Why Has Inflation Persistence Declined?
By Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe
April 11, 2018

Inflation persistence fell in the 1980s due to the lower trend inflation rate that the Volcker disinflation produced.

What Could Resurging U.S. Energy Production Mean for the U.S. Trade Deficit?
By Nida Çakır Melek and Jun Nie
March 07, 2018

Resurging energy production and booming energy exports could help reduce the U.S. trade deficit by 5 percent by the end of 2018.

Did Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor U.S. Inflation Expectations?
By Brent Bundick and A. Lee Smith
January 17, 2018

Expectations for long-run inflation became better anchored after the Federal Open Market Committee adopted its 2 percent target.

Pent-Up Demand and Continuing Price Increases: The Outlook for Housing in 2018
By Jordan Rappaport
January 10, 2018

Housing construction is struggling to meet pent-up demand, suggesting rents and home prices will continue to rise in 2018.


Characterizing the 2014–16 Slowdown in Investment
By Andrew Foerster
December 20, 2017

The investment sector experienced an unusual, isolated recession during 2014–16, a period when the overall economy was in an expansion.

A New Estimate of the Natural Rate of Unemployment
By Didem Tüzemen
November 29, 2017

A new estimate of the natural rate of unemployment suggests demographic and technical changes lowered the natural rate to 4.6 percent.

Changing Credit Profile of Consumers: Aging Versus the Business Cycle
By Taeyoung Doh
August 30, 2017

The average consumer credit score reached a record high recently, due in large part to an aging population.

Examining the Recent Shift in State and Local Pension Plans to Alternative Investments
By Huixin Bi and Trenton Herriford
August 30, 2017

State and local pension plans are increasingly turning to alternative investments, but underfunding only partially explains this shift.

Has China’s Growth Reached a Turning Point?
By Jun Nie and Yandong Jia
August 30, 2017

A new measure of Chinese economic activity shows its momentum increased in the first half of the year; however, this momentum may not be sustainable.

Subsiding Headwinds from the Strong Dollar: Evidence from Producer Prices along the Supply Chain
By George A. Kahn and Nicholas Sly
July 13, 2017

The foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar has stabilized, and producer prices are rising, especially at early stages of the supply chain.

Does the Recent Decline in Household Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Signal a Loss of Confidence in the FOMC?
By Brent Bundick, A. Lee Smith, Trenton Herriford and Emily Pollard
June 21, 2017

Households have lowered their longer-term inflation outlooks, but they appear confident in the FOMC’s ability to achieve stable prices.

Forecasting the Stance of Monetary Policy under Balance Sheet Adjustments
By A. Lee Smith
May 10, 2017

Changes in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet only modestly substitute for changes in the federal funds rate.

Waiting for a Pickup: GDP and the Sharing Economy
By Michael Redmond
April 19, 2017

Current measures of GDP may understate the contributions from ridesharing platforms and other dimensions of the sharing economy—a small but growing oversight for the national accounts.

The Large Unmet Demand for Housing
By Jordan Rappaport
April 12, 2017

A limited supply of housing available for sale or rent is significantly dampening household formation.

Wage Leaders and Laggards: Decomposing the Growth in Average Hourly Earnings
By Willem Van Zandweghe
February 15, 2017

Wage growth has accelerated gradually over the past two years, but only a few industries have driven the trend.

Stuck in Part-Time Employment
By Jonathan L. Willis
January 18, 2017

Although the share of workers employed part time for economic reasons has declined, it is unlikely to return to its pre-recession level in the near future.


PDFConsumer Price Inflation and Rising Rents in the West
By Jordan Rappaport and Michael Redmond
December 19, 2016

Rising home rents in four western metros have increasingly boosted consumer price inflation.

PDFHow Does a Rise in International Shipping Costs Affect U.S. Inflation?
By Nicholas Sly, A. Lee Smith, Trenton Herriford and Elizabeth M. Johnson
December 01, 2016

Trenton Herriford, Elizabeth M. Johnson, Nicholas Sly, and A. Lee Smith find that an increase in ocean shipping costs leads to a modest boost in core inflation after one year.

What is Behind the Recent Increase in Labor Force Participation?
By Didem Tüzemen and Jonathan L. Willis
November 14, 2016

Didem Tüzemen and Jonathan L. Willis find that the recent increase in labor force participation is due not to more workers entering the labor force, but to fewer workers exiting it.

PDFThe Weak Outlook for Residential Investment
By Jordan Rappaport
October 06, 2016

Jordan Rappaport suggests supply-side factors will continue to constrain single-family home construction and sales into 2017.

PDFGlobal Uncertainty in the Wake of Brexit
By Craig S. Hakkio and Nicholas Sly
September 12, 2016

Craig S. Hakkio and Nicholas Sly find that increased global uncertainty after Brexit will be a major concern for the United Kingdom, a modest concern for the euro area, and a minor concern for the United States. 

PDFTracking Consumer Credit Trends
By Troy Davig and William Xu
August 23, 2016

Troy Davig and William Xu find that a larger share of consumers with low credit scores are increasing their debt than those with high credit scores.

PDFThe Drag of Energy and Manufacturing on Productivity Growth
By Willem Van Zandweghe
April 18, 2016

Willem Van Zandweghe finds a decline in manufacturing and mining activity has slowed overall productivity growth.

PDFMonetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the Summary of Economic Projections
By George A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer
April 06, 2016

George A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer assess how FOMC participants' projections that policy would lift off from its effective lower bound related to their projections for inflation and unemployment.

PDFFlowing into Employment: Implications for the Participation Rate
By José Mustre-del-Río, William Xu and Michael Redmond
April 01, 2016

José Mustre-del-Río, Michael Redmond, and William Xu find more prime-age individuals are flowing into employment from outside the labor force, though effects on the participation rate could be limited by educational attainment.

PDFThe Lasting Damage from the Financial Crisis to U.S. Productivity
By Willem Van Zandweghe and Michael Redmond
March 29, 2016

Michael Redmond and Willem Van Zandweghe find that tight credit conditions during the 2007–09 financial crisis dampened productivity, leaving it on a lower trajectory. 

PDFThe Limited Supply of Homes
By Jordan Rappaport
March 23, 2016

Jordan Rappaport finds that a limited supply of single-family homes will continue to constrain home sales and put upward pressure on home prices over the next few years.

PDFThe Reallocation of Energy-Sector Workers after Oil Price Booms and Busts
By Jason P. Brown and Andres Kodaka
March 03, 2016

Jason P. Brown and Andres Kodaka compare recent job losses in the mining sector with those that occurred during the Great Recession and find displaced workers had an easier time finding new jobs in 2015 than they did during the recession.

PDFGauging the Strength of Chinese GDP Growth
By Jun Nie
February 29, 2016

Jun Nie constructs an alternative measure to evaluate the strength of Chinese GDP growth and identifies potential risks to China’s growth in the near term.

PDFHow Much of the Fall in Inflation Can Be Explained by Energy and Import Prices?
By A. Lee Smith
January 15, 2016

A. Lee Smith finds that recent declines in inflation may be due to historically large movements in oil prices and the foreign exchange value of the dollar.


PDFEstimating the Monetary Policy Rule Perceived by Forecasters
By Brent Bundick
December 28, 2015

Brent Bundick examines whether the FOMC’s implicit monetary policy rule, as perceived by professional forecasters, changed when the federal funds rate reached its effective lower bound.

PDFLong-Term Survey-Based Inflation Expectations Have Become Better Anchored
By Craig S. Hakkio
October 06, 2015

Craig S. Hakkio finds that while the median of some long-term inflation forecasts has declined, the distribution of individual forecasts suggests long-term inflation expectations have in fact become better anchored.

PDFEvaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility
By Troy Davig, Nida Çakır MelekJun NieA. Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen
September 08, 2015

Troy Davig, Nida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline. 

PDFGlobal Capital Flows from China
By Jun Nie and Nicholas Sly
September 08, 2015

Jun Nie and Nicholas Sly examine recent trends in capital flows from China and the implications for the United States.

PDFHas Forward Guidance Been Effective?
By A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker
September 04, 2015

A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker compare forward guidance announcements with changes in the effective federal funds rate and find the two policy measures have had similar macroeconomic effects.

PDFMonetary Policy and Firm Entry and Exit
By Yoonsoo Lee and Willem Van Zandweghe 
August 20, 2015

Yoonsoo Lee and Willem Van Zandweghe find unusually accommodative monetary policy reduces the reallocation of capital and workers from exiting firms to new ones, potentially slowing productivity growth.

PDFTaylor Rules or Target Rules?
By George A. Kahn
August 17, 2015

George A. Kahn assesses whether the Federal Open Market Committee's policy actions are better characterized as following a policy-rule or target-rule approach.

PDFDo Monetary Policy Shocks Affect Trend Labor Productivity?
By Willem Van Zandweghe 
August 10, 2015

Willem Van Zandweghe examines whether monetary policy has had long-lasting effects on labor productivity and potential output.

PDFThe Effect of the U.S. Energy Boom on the Trade Deficit
By Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie
July 20, 2015

Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie predict the real energy trade deficit will decline at a much slower pace in 2015 than in the past few years.

PDFHas the U.S. Economy Become Less Interest Rate Sensitive?
By Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao
July 08, 2015

Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao investigate shifts in the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates by examining how total employment responds to changes in monetary policy. 

PDFMillennials, Baby Boomers, and Rebounding Multifamily Home Construction
By Jordan Rappaport
June 23, 2015

Jordan Rappaport analyzes the forces driving the recent rebound in multifamily construction.

PDFConfident about Quitting: Job Leavers and Labor Market Optimism
By José Mustre-del-Río and William Xu
June 08, 2015

Mustre-del-Río and Xu compare two measures of voluntary turnover and find job quitters have recently become more optimistic about their employment opportunities.

PDFOpportunity Knocks: Improved Matching of Jobs and Workers
By Didem Tüzemen and Jonathan L. Willis
May 13, 2015

Tüzemen and Willis illustrate that over the past year, workers found jobs more closely matched to their educational attainment. 

PDFWhat Could Lower Prices Mean for U.S. Oil Production?
By Nida Çakır Melek
April 06, 2015

Melek estimates the effects of the recent oil price decline on 2015 oil production.

PDFAre Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Stable?
By Brent Bundick and Craig S. Hakkio
March 09, 2015

The authors use survey data to evaluate the stability of forecasters' long-term inflation expectations.

PDFShould Monetary Policy Monitor Risk Premiums in Financial Markets?
By Taeyoung Doh, Guangye Cao and Daniel Molling
February 26, 2015

The authors examine whether risk premiums can predict future economic growth and whether monetary policy can influence risk premiums.


PDFFollowing the Leaders: Wage Growth of Job Switchers
By José Mustre-del-Río
December 19, 2014

José Mustre-del-Río analyzes labor market conditions to find increasing competitive pressures have led to strong wage growth for job switchers.

PDFAccounting for Changes in the U.S. Budget Deficit
By Troy Davig and Michael Redmond
December 04, 2014

Davig and Redmond gauge the contributions of three factors to the declining U.S. federal budget deficit.

PDFDoes Health Care Reform Support Self-Employment?
By Didem Tüzemen and Thealexa Becker
September 24, 2014

Tüzemen and Becker study the Massachusetts Health Care Reform Act and find the reform may have supported self-employment in the state.

PDFThe Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Employment
By Andrew Forester
September 04, 2014

Foerster examines three periods of heightened stock market volatility during the economic recovery to find uncertainty may have slowed employment growth.

PDFKansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI)
By Jonathan L. Willis and Craig S. Hakkio
August 28, 2014

Craig S. Hakkio and Jonathan L. Willis update the Kansas City Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators and assess labor market improvements and momentum.

PDFChina's Slowing Housing Market and GDP Growth
By Jun Nie and Guangye Cao
August 25, 2014

Jun Nie and Guangye Cao examine the slowdown in China's real estate sector and suggest additional policy stimulus may be needed to meet the country's 2014 target for GDP growth.

PDFThe Wage Cycle and Shadow Labor Supply
By Troy Davig and José Mustre-del-Río
August 11, 2014

Troy Davig and José Mustre-del-Río evaluate current wage growth and find wages are not only rising at a pace consistent with the last expansion, but likely to rise further as the labor market improves.

PDFEvaluating Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound
By Craig S. Hakkio and George A. Kahn
July 21, 2014

Craig S. Hakkio and George A. Kahn compare a "shadow" federal funds rate to prescriptions from an estimated policy rule and find policy was not sufficiently accommodative after the recession but became more accommodative over time.

PDFTight Credit Conditions Continue to Constrain the Housing Recovery
By Jordan Rappaport and Paul Willen
July 07, 2014

The housing recovery has continued to struggle to gain traction. The vigilance with which lenders have been applying stricter lending standards suggests regulatory uncertainty may be playing a role.

PDFEvolving Market Perceptions of Federal Reserve Policy Objectives
By George A. Kahn and Lisa Taylor
March 31, 2014

Despite varying interpretations of the Fed's monetary policy mandate, the response of long-term rates to economic news remains relatively stable, suggesting markets perceive little change in policy objectives under different regimes.

PDFThe Global Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy
By Travis Berge and Guangye Cao
March 04, 2014

Travis Berge and Guangye Cao assess the effects of U.S. monetary policy on asset prices in 50 countries. They find a similar reaction of asset prices to conventional and unconventional monetary policies.

PDFConsumer Debt Dynamics: An Update
By John Carter Braxton and Troy Davig
February 18, 2014

Is the trend of contracting of consumer debt turning? Outstanding consumer debt and the fraction of consumers with increasing debt grew in the last half of 2013, mainly fueled by those with low credit scores borrowing to buy autos.


PDFThe Long-Term Outlook for U.S. Residential Construction
By Jordan Rappaport
December 20, 2013

The recovery of U.S. housing construction paused during the first half of 2013. Stronger growth is likely to resume in the near term. But over the long term, home construction is likely to contract as aging baby boomers downsize.

PDFThe Impact of an Aging Population on State Tax Revenues
By Alison Felix and Kate Watkins
December 05, 2013

People tend to earn less and spend less when they retire. As the baby boom generation retires, the aging of the U.S. population will likely reduce state governments’ revenue per capita from income taxes and sales taxes significantly.

PDFThe Weakened Influence of Low Interest Rates on Durable Goods Spending
By Willem Van Zandweghe and John Carter Braxton
November 19, 2013

Despite record-low interest rates, the pace of the current economic recovery has been only moderate. One reason is that the positive impact of lowered interest rates on consumer purchases of durable goods has diminished.

PDFU.S. Exports and Foreign Economic Growth: Which Regions Matter Most?
By Jun Nie and Lisa Taylor
November 05, 2013

U.S. export growth tends to vary with changes in different foreign regions' economic growth rates. This article estimates how much change in U.S. export growth may be associated with a rise or fall in a given region's GDP growth.

PDFHas The Effect of Monetary Policy Announcements On Asset Prices Changed?
By Taeyoung Doh and Michael Connolly
September 04, 2013

The Federal Reserve has increased communication about the future path of the federal funds target rate over time. The use of forward guidance as a policy tool has raised questions about changes in how it influences the economy.

PDFThe Shadow Labor Supply and Its Implications for the Unemployment Rate
By Troy Davig and José Mustre-del-Río
August 19, 2013

The number of people wanting work, but not looking for a job, has swelled in recent years. However, their flow rate back into unemployment has been declining, so they will likely only have a modest impact on the unemployment rate.

PDFAssessing Labor Market Conditions: The level of activity and the speed of improvement
By Craig S. Hakkio and Jonathan L. Willis
July 18, 2013

To help assess labor market conditions, two measures are proposed that show that the pace of improvement has recently increased, but two more years of similar improvement are needed to return conditions to historical averages.