Tenth District manufacturing activity expanded again at a moderate pace, and producers’ expectations for future activity increased further. The price indexes were mixed, but mostly little changed.

The month-over-month composite index was 6 in October, equal to 6 in September and up from -4 in August (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The increase was mostly attributable to continued strength in metals, machinery, and chemical production. Most month-over-month indexes improved further in October. The production index edged higher from 15 to 18, and the shipments, new orders, and order backlog also rose moderately. The employment index climbed from -3 to 7, its highest level in almost two years. The raw materials inventory index dropped from 8 to -11, and the finished goods inventory index also fell substantially.

Most year-over-year factory indexes remained below zero. The composite year-over-year index inched lower from -9 to -11, and the production, shipments, and new orders for exports indexes also fell. The new orders, order backlog, and employment indexes were slightly higher but still in negative territory. The capital expenditures index decreased modestly from -4 to -7, after rising last month. The raw materials inventory index fell from -4 to -19, and the finished goods inventory index also moved lower.

Most future factory indexes increased in October. The future composite index rose from 10 to 18, its highest level in over a year, and the future production, shipments, and employment indexes also increased considerably. However, the future new orders and order backlog indexes moved lower but remained positive. The future capital spending index moderated from 14 to 8, and the future new orders for exports index also eased. The future raw materials inventory index jumped from -7 to 13, and the future finished goods index rose from -5 to 7.

Price indexes remained mixed in October, with mostly little change. The month-over-month finished goods price index edged higher from -7 to -5, while the raw materials price index edged lower again. The year-over-year finished goods price index moved back into positive territory, and the raw materials price index jumped from -2 to 14. The future finished goods price index was basically unchanged, while the future raw materials price index decreased from 26 to 19.

Survey Data

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About Manufacturing Survey

Author

Chad Wilkerson

Vice President, Economist and Oklahoma City Branch Executive

Chad Wilkerson is Branch Executive of the Kansas City Fed’s Oklahoma City Branch office. In this role, he serves as the Bank’s lead officer and regional economist in Oklahoma. He…