The Income Share of Energy and Substitution: A Macroeconomic Approach
By Nida Çakır Melek and Musa Orak
RWP 21-18, December 2021

U.S. producers may be able to substitute other inputs for energy over the long run, allowing the share of GDP spent on energy to decline.

Wealth in the Utility Function and Consumption Inequality
By Yulei Luo, Jun Nie, and Heng-fu Zou
RWP 21-17, December 2021

Consumers’ desire for wealth as an end in itself leads to a lower real interest rate, a higher equity premium, and greater consumption inequality.

Spillovers at the Extremes: The Macroprudential Stance and Vulnerability to the Global Financial Cycle
By Anusha Chari, Karlye Dilts Stedman, and Kristin Forbes
RWP 21-16, December 2021

More stringent macroprudential regulation increases international bond and equity inflows during risk-on periods as well as bond and equity outflows during risk-off episodes.

Optimal Age-Based Vaccination and Economic Mitigation Policies for the Second Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic
By Andrew Glover, Jonathan Heathcote, Dirk Krueger, José-Victor Ríos-Rull
RWP 21-15, December 2021

Vaccinating older adults against COVID-19 before younger adults reduces deaths and boosts economic activity relative to other vaccination paths.

Safeguarding Research: A Review of Economics Journals’ Preservation Policies for Published Code and Data Files
By Courtney R. Butler, Brett D. Currier, and Kira M. Lillard
RWP 21-14, December 2021

Although most economics journals recommend that researchers release code and data with their papers, almost no journals specify how or whether these files will be preserved for the future.

International Spillovers, Macroprudential Coordination, and Capital Controls
By Johannes Matschke
RWP 21-13, November 2021; updated September 2022

International regulatory standards can improve financial stability for all countries, but some countries have fewer incentives to adhere to them.

Explaining Machine Learning by Bootstrapping Partial Dependence Functions and Shapley Values
By Thomas R. Cook, Nathan M. Palmer, Zach Modig, and Greg Gupton
RWP 21-12, November 2021

We examine two techniques for interpreting machine learning models and explain how they fit within the framework of economic analysis.

Does Access to Free Pre-Kindergarten Increase Maternal Labor Supply?
By Elias Ilin, Samantha Shampine, and Ellie Terry
RWP 21-11, November 2021

Access to free pre-kindergarten programs increases the labor force participation of prime-working-age mothers by 2.3 percentage points.

Macroprudential Policy Interlinkages
By Johannes Matschke
RWP 21-10, September 2021; updated September 2022

Emerging markets can benefit from considering the interaction of macroprudential policies across both domestic and international financial markets.

The Effect of Immigration on Local Labor Markets: Lessons from the 1920s Border Closure
By Ran Abramitzky, Philipp Ager, Leah Boustan, External LinkElior Cohen and Casper W. Hansen
RWP 21-09, September 2021

The 1920s U.S. border closure substantially reduced immigration, with uneven effects on regional economies.

Capital Controls and the Global Financial Cycle
By Marina Lovchikova and Johannes Matschke
RWP 21-08, September 2021; updated February 2023

Emerging markets have an incentive to tighten capital inflow controls during periods of international financial distress.

Shadow Insurance? Money Market Fund Investors and Bank Sponsorship
By Stefan Jacewitz, Haluk Unal, and Chengjun Wu
RWP 21-07, August 2021

Investors in prime institutional money market funds paid higher expense ratios and received lower net yields as compensation for implicit bank guarantees and indirect access to the federal bank safety net.

Financial Constraints, Sectoral Heterogeneity, and the Cyclicality of Investment
By Cooper Howes
RWP 21-06, August 2021

Following monetary policy contractions, firms with financial flexibility take advantage of declining prices for capital goods by increasing their investment.

Production and Inventory Dynamics under Ambiguity Aversion
By Yulei Luo, Jun Nie, Xiaowen Wang and Eric R. Young
RWP 21-05, July 2021

Incorporating ambiguity aversion into models of production and inventory dynamics can help explain firms’ investment behavior.

From Deviations to Shortfalls: The Effects of the FOMC’s New Employment Objective
By Brent Bundick and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau
RWP 21-04, July 2021

A monetary policy that stabilizes employment shortfalls, rather than deviations in employment from its maximum level, leads to higher inflation and higher employment on average.

Loan Guarantees in a Crisis: An Antidote to a Credit Crunch
By W. Blake Marsh and Padma Sharma
RWP 21-03, June 2021; updated April 2022

By providing small and midsized firms with forgivable bank loans, the PPP offset declines in bank lending to businesses and protected banks against credit losses.

The Size of U.S. Metropolitan Areas
By McKenzie Humann and Jordan Rappaport
RWP 21-02, May 2021; updated June 2022

The gradual unwinding of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet from 2017 to 2019 tightened financial conditions, though this tightening did not simply manifest as a reversal of the effects of the original balance sheet expansion.

Local Projections, Autocorrelation, and Efficiency
By Amaze Lusompa
RWP 21-01, March 2021

A more accurate estimator of causal effects may help economists better evaluate how monetary policy affects the economy.