Sectoral Loan Concentration and Bank Performance (2001-2014)
By Rajdeep Sengupta and Kristen Regehr
RWP 16-13, November 2016

Sectoral loan concentration can influence the size-profitability relationship for banks and the likelihood of bank survival. Switching specializations increases the hazard of failure but decreases the odds of being acquired.

Does Resource Ownership Matter? Oil and Gas Royalties and the Income Effect of Extraction
By Jason P. Brown, Timothy Fitzgerald and Jeremy G. Weber
RWP 16-12, November 2016; updated January 2019

In 2013, total oil and gas royalty-related income exceeded $64 billion. Each dollar in royalties generated an additional $0.52 of local income. Areas with locally owned resources capture $0.29 more of each dollar earned on production.

The Equilibrium Term Structure of Equity and Interest Rates
By Taeyoung Doh and Shu Wu
RWP 16-11, November 2016

Doh and Wu incorporate a time-varying market price of risk into an equilibrium asset-pricing model based on long-run consumption risks that generates the term structure of bond and equity risk premia consistent with U.S. data.

The Multinational Wage Premium and Wage Dynamics
By Nicholas Sly, Gianluca Orefice and Farid Toubal
RWP 16-10, November 2016

Multinational firms often enter countries through cross-border mergers and acquisitions. For the domestic firms that are acquired, foreign ownership tends to reverse years of wage declines and even promote wage gains for employees.

Variable Elasticity Demand and Inflation Persistence
By Willem Van Zandweghe and Takushi Kurozumi
RWP 16-09, April 2018

This paper proposes a model of monetary policy that relies on price dispersion to explain empirical evidence on inflation persistence.

Do Bank Bailouts Reduce or Increase Systemic Risk? The Effects of TARP on Financial System Stability
By Raluca A. Roman, Allen N. Berger and John Sedunov
RWP 16-08, September 2016

The TARP bailout significantly reduced contributions to systemic risk, particularly for large banks, safe banks, and banks located in strong local economies. These reductions occurred primarily through a capital cushion channel.

Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches
By Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi
RWP 16-07, August 2016

How should monetary policy rules respond to shifts in the economy?

Recession Forecasting Using Bayesian Classification
By Aaron Smalter Hall
RWP 16-06, August 2016; updated February 2017

A new approach to recession forecasting outperforms competing methods up to 12 months in advance.

Raising Capital When the Going Gets Tough: U.S. Bank Equity Issuance from 2001 to 2014
By Rajdeep Sengupta, Lamont Black and Ioannis Floros
RWP 16-05, June 2016

Bank equity issuance to private investors peaked during the crisis even as investor requirements grew more stringent.

Debt-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Expansions
By Huixin Bi, Wenyi Shen and Shu-Chun S. Yang
RWP 16-04, March 2016

The effects of an increase in government spending are not necessarily debt-dependent—instead, they may depend on general economic conditions as well as whether the government stabilizes debt through taxes or spending.

Productivity, Congested Commuting, and Metro Size
By Jordan Rappaport
RWP 16-03, January 2016

A model of metropolitan areas shows that traffic congestion is the most important force constraining population.

The Dynamic Effects of Forward Guidance Shocks
By Brent Bundick and A. Lee Smith
RWP 16-02, January 2016; updated June 2019

Forward guidance that lowers the expected path of policy stimulates economic activity and prices.

Chargebacks: Another Payment Card Acceptance Cost for Merchants
By Fumiko Hayashi, Richard Sullivan and Zach Markiewicz
RWP 16-01, January 2016

About 50 percent of total chargebacks are due to fraud. Both the total and fraud chargeback rates are significantly higher for card-not-present transactions than for card-present transactions. Those rates also vary by merchant category.