Center for Agriculture and the Economy
Leveraging expertise from the Kansas City Fed, the Center provides timely analysis of industry developments and conducts ongoing research on the agricultural economy.
Harvest Fuel Relief Program Will Offset a Significant Portion of 2026 Cost Increases
By Ty Kreitman
November 2, 2026
Government payments to farmers will likely compensate for a substantial portion of increased fuel costs for the agricultural sector in 2026. The Harvest Fuel Relief program announced in October could cover a 50% year-over-year increase in total fuel and oil costs for the sector or an 80% increase in total diesel costs. As of September, the USDA had forecasted total fuel and oil costs to increase about $4.8 billion or 30% from last year. As of August, diesel costs had increased about 60% from the average in 2025 and through October prices climbed to about 75% above last year. The scale of the program relative to this year’s increase in fuel costs suggests that most of the increase from last year will likely be covered.
Note: The above information is based on the USDA Farm Income Forecast as of September 3, 2026. Itemized costs for all fuel and oil costs are not available for the current 2026 forecast.
Source: USDA and Federal Reserve Bank of Kanas City staff calculations
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The Kansas City Fed's Continuing Commitment to Agriculture
Through regular surveys, analysis and connections across the industry, the Kansas City Fed has had a longstanding focus on U.S. and global agriculture. Leveraging this expertise, the Center for Agriculture and the Economy serves as a resource within the Federal Reserve System by providing timely analysis of industry developments and conducting ongoing research on the agricultural economy. The Kansas City Fed is committed to understanding developments in the agricultural economy and gathering perspectives from rural America in order to include them in discussions on the national economy.
The Kansas City Fed's Ag Connection
Agriculture is central to the Kansas City Fed’s 10th District’s economy, from farm production and food manufacturing to agricultural banking and finance. Through its regular surveys, analysis and connections across the industry, the Kansas City Fed has had a longstanding focus on the U.S. and global agricultural economy. At the same time, connecting with stakeholders and ag industry professionals through events, round tables and conversations is critical to the Bank’s work.