THE MACRO BULLETINA. Lee Smith finds that recent declines in inflation may be due to historically large movements in oil prices and the foreign exchange value of the dollar.
RESEARCH WORKING PAPERAbout 50 percent of total chargebacks are due to fraud. Both the total and fraud chargeback rates are significantly higher for card-not-present transactions than for card-present transactions. Those rates also vary by merchant category.
RESEARCH WORKING PAPERPrepaid cards are significantly less costly than checking accounts for unbanked consumers who make overdrafts or need short-term loans, but prepaid cards are more costly for the other unbanked consumers.
Did Saving Wall Street Really Save Main Street? The Real Effects of TARP on Local Economic ConditionsBy Raluca Roman and Allen N. Berger
RESEARCH WORKING PAPERTARP significantly increased net job creation and net business hiring and decreased business and personal bankruptcies. These results suggest saving Wall Street through TARP may have helped save Main Street, contributing to the TARP cost-benefit debate.
By Terri Bradford
PAYMENTS SYSTEM RESEARCH BRIEFINGThis Briefing article offers highlights from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's fifth international payments conference, "The Puzzle of Retail Payments Security: Fitting the Pieces Together to Protect the Retail Payments System," hosted June 25-26, 2015.
Brent Bundick examines whether the FOMC’s implicit monetary policy rule, as perceived by professional forecasters, changed when the federal funds rate reached its effective lower bound. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
By Troy Davig, Nida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, A. Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen
Troy Davig, Nida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
By A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker
A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker compare forward guidance announcements with changes in the effective federal funds rate and find the two policy measures have had similar macroeconomic effects. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
By Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao
Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao investigate shifts in the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates by examining how total employment responds to changes in monetary policy.
By Jason Brown
Jason Brown examines how the recent period of declining oil prices has affected employment in oil- and gas-producing states.
By Taeyoung Doh, Guangye Cao and Daniel Molling
The authors examine whether risk premiums can predict future economic growth and whether monetary policy can influence risk premiums. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.