Recent Research

The Drag of Energy and Manufacturing on Productivity Growth

THE MACRO BULLETINWillem Van Zandweghe finds a decline in manufacturing and mining activity has slowed overall productivity growth.

Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the Summary of Economic Projections

THE MACRO BULLETINGeorge A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer assess how FOMC participants' projections that policy would lift off from its effective lower bound related to their projections for inflation and unemployment.

Flowing into Employment: Implications for the Participation Rate

THE MACRO BULLETINJosé Mustre-del-Río, Michael Redmond, and William Xu find more prime-age individuals are flowing into employment from outside the labor force, though effects on the participation rate could be limited by educational attainment.

The Lasting Damage from the Financial Crisis to U.S. Productivity

THE MACRO BULLETINMichael Redmond and Willem Van Zandweghe find that tight credit conditions during the 2007–09 financial crisis dampened productivity, leaving it on a lower trajectory.

Debt-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Expansions

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERThe effects of an increase in government spending are not necessarily debt-dependent—instead, they may depend on general economic conditions as well as whether the government stabilizes debt through taxes or spending.

The Limited Supply of Homes

THE MACRO BULLETINJordan Rappaport finds that a limited supply of single-family homes will continue to constrain home sales and put upward pressure on home prices over the next few years.

The Reallocation of Energy-Sector Workers after Oil Price Booms and Busts

THE MACRO BULLETINJason P. Brown and Andres Kodaka compare recent job losses in the mining sector with those that occurred during the Great Recession and find displaced workers had an easier time finding new jobs in 2015 than they did during the recession.

Gauging the Strength of Chinese GDP Growth

THE MACRO BULLETINJun Nie constructs an alternative measure to evaluate the strength of Chinese GDP growth and identifies potential risks to China’s growth in the near term.

Productivity, Congested Commuting, and Metro Size

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERA model of metropolitan areas shows that traffic congestion is the most important force constraining population.

The Dynamic Effects of Forward Guidance Shocks

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERForward guidance that lowers the expected path of policy stimulates economic activity and prices.

Economic Review

Consumption Growth Regimes and the Post-Financial Crisis Recovery

Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi find that consumption has grown more slowly after the Great Recession due to the continued influence of persistent factors unusual to see outside recessions.

Global Uncertainty and U.S. Exports

Nicholas Sly finds that periods of greater uncertainty and financial volatility within U.S. trading partners are associated with substantially lower demand for U.S. goods. 

Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections

George A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer assess how FOMC participants' projections that policy would lift off from its effective lower bound related to their projections for inflation and unemployment. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

The Lasting Damage from the Financial Crisis to U.S. Productivity

Michael Redmond and Willem Van Zandweghe find that tight credit conditions during the 2007–09 financial crisis dampened productivity, leaving it on a lower trajectory. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Data Breach Notification Laws

Richard J. Sullivan and Jesse Leigh Maniff study individual provisions within states' data breach notification laws to evaluate their effects on identity theft.

Estimating the Monetary Policy Rule Perceived by Forecasters

Brent Bundick examines whether the FOMC’s implicit monetary policy rule, as perceived by professional forecasters, changed when the federal funds rate reached its effective lower bound. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
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The Center for the Advancement of Data and Research in Economics

CADRE provides high performance computing capabilities and research data management and curation services to the research community.

Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium

Our annual symposium draws central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world. The proceedings include papers, commentaries and discussions.
About the Symposium | Archive

Monetary Policy & Macroeconomics

Issues of importance to the Federal Reserve, including financial markets, banking, monetary policy and more.

Banking, Payments & Financial Markets

Issues affecting the banking and payments industries.

Community Research

Economic issues affecting low- and moderate- income communities, including fair and impartial access to credit.

Regional Research

Economic geography and developments for national monetary policy deliberations.

Agriculture & Rural Economies

Insights on agricultural and rural economies regionally and nationally.