Recent Research

Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches

By Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi RESEARCH WORKING PAPERHow should monetary policy rules respond to shifts in the economy?

Recession Forecasting Using Bayesian Classification

By Troy Davig and Aaron Smalter Hall RESEARCH WORKING PAPERA new approach to recession forecasting outperforms competing methods up to 12 months in advance.

Tracking Consumer Credit Trends

By Troy Davig and William Xu THE MACRO BULLETINTroy Davig and William Xu find that a larger share of consumers with low credit scores are increasing their debt than those with high credit scores.

Raising Capital When the Going Gets Tough: U.S. Bank Equity Issuance from 2001 to 2014

By Rajdeep Sengupta, Lamont Black and Ioannis Floros RESEARCH WORKING PAPERBank equity issuance to private investors peaked during the crisis even as investor requirements grew more stringent.

The Drag of Energy and Manufacturing on Productivity Growth

By Willem Van Zandweghe THE MACRO BULLETINWillem Van Zandweghe finds a decline in manufacturing and mining activity has slowed overall productivity growth.

Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the Summary of Economic Projections

By George Kahn and Andrew Palmer THE MACRO BULLETINGeorge A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer assess how FOMC participants' projections that policy would lift off from its effective lower bound related to their projections for inflation and unemployment.

Flowing into Employment: Implications for the Participation Rate

By Jose Mustre-del-Río, Michael Redmond and William Xu THE MACRO BULLETINJosé Mustre-del-Río, Michael Redmond, and William Xu find more prime-age individuals are flowing into employment from outside the labor force, though effects on the participation rate could be limited by educational attainment.

Debt-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Expansions

By Huixin Bi, Wenyi Shen and Shu-Chun S. Yang RESEARCH WORKING PAPERThe effects of an increase in government spending are not necessarily debt-dependent—instead, they may depend on general economic conditions as well as whether the government stabilizes debt through taxes or spending.

Economic Review

Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy on and off the Zero Lower Bound

By Taeyoung Doh and Jason Choi Taeyoung Doh and Jason Choi propose a new “shadow” short-term interest rate to measure the stance of policy when the federal funds rate was constrained by the zero lower bound.

Access to Electronic Payments Systems by Unbanked Consumers

By Fumiko Hayashi Fumiko Hayashi identifies electronic payment products that can mitigate unbanked consumers’ problems with the banking system.

Has the Relationship between Bank Size and Profitability Changed?

By Rajdeep Sengupta and Kristen Regehr Kristen Regehr and Rajdeep Sengupta explore whether the relationship between bank size and profitability changed after the 2007–09 financial crisis.

Consumption Growth Regimes and the Post-Financial Crisis Recovery

By Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi find that consumption has grown more slowly after the Great Recession due to the continued influence of persistent factors unusual to see outside recessions.

Global Uncertainty and U.S. Exports

By Nicholas Sly Nicholas Sly finds that periods of greater uncertainty and financial volatility within U.S. trading partners are associated with substantially lower demand for U.S. goods. 

Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections

By George Kahn and Andrew Palmer George A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer assess how FOMC participants' projections that policy would lift off from its effective lower bound related to their projections for inflation and unemployment. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

The Lasting Damage from the Financial Crisis to U.S. Productivity

By Michael Redmond and Willem Van Zandweghe Michael Redmond and Willem Van Zandweghe find that tight credit conditions during the 2007–09 financial crisis dampened productivity, leaving it on a lower trajectory. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Data Breach Notification Laws

By Richard Sullivan and Jesse Leigh Maniff Richard J. Sullivan and Jesse Leigh Maniff study individual provisions within states' data breach notification laws to evaluate their effects on identity theft.

Estimating the Monetary Policy Rule Perceived by Forecasters

By Brent Bundick Brent Bundick examines whether the FOMC’s implicit monetary policy rule, as perceived by professional forecasters, changed when the federal funds rate reached its effective lower bound. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
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Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium

Our annual symposium draws central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world. The proceedings include papers, commentaries and discussions.
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Monetary Policy & Macroeconomics

Issues of importance to the Federal Reserve, including financial markets, banking, monetary policy and more.

Banking, Payments & Financial Markets

Issues affecting the banking and payments industries.

Community Research

Economic issues affecting low- and moderate- income communities, including fair and impartial access to credit.

Regional Research

Economic geography and developments for national monetary policy deliberations.

Agriculture & Rural Economies

Insights on agricultural and rural economies regionally and nationally.