Recent Research

Productivity, Congested Commuting, and Metro Size

By Jordan Rappaport

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERA model of metropolitan areas shows that traffic congestion is the most important force constraining population.

The Dynamic Effects of Forward Guidance Shocks

By Brent Bundick and Andrew Lee Smith

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERForward guidance that lowers the expected path of policy stimulates economic activity and prices.

How Much of the Fall in Inflation Can Be Explained by Energy and Import Prices?

By Andrew Lee Smith

THE MACRO BULLETINA. Lee Smith finds that recent declines in inflation may be due to historically large movements in oil prices and the foreign exchange value of the dollar.

Chargebacks: Another Payment Card Acceptance Cost for Merchants

By Fumiko Hayashi, Zach Markiewicz, and Richard Sullivan

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERAbout 50 percent of total chargebacks are due to fraud. Both the total and fraud chargeback rates are significantly higher for card-not-present transactions than for card-present transactions. Those rates also vary by merchant category.

Driver of Choice? The Cost of Financial Products for Unbanked Consumers

By Fumiko Hayashi, Josh Hanson and Jesse Leigh Maniff

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERPrepaid cards are significantly less costly than checking accounts for unbanked consumers who make overdrafts or need short-term loans, but prepaid cards are more costly for the other unbanked consumers.

Did Saving Wall Street Really Save Main Street? The Real Effects of TARP on Local Economic Conditions

By Raluca Roman and Allen N. Berger

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERTARP significantly increased net job creation and net business hiring and decreased business and personal bankruptcies. These results suggest saving Wall Street through TARP may have helped save Main Street, contributing to the TARP cost-benefit debate.

The Puzzle of Payments Security: Fitting the Pieces Together to Protect the Retail Payments System

By Terri Bradford
PAYMENTS SYSTEM RESEARCH BRIEFINGThis Briefing article offers highlights from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's fifth international payments conference, "The Puzzle of Retail Payments Security: Fitting the Pieces Together to Protect the Retail Payments System," hosted June 25-26, 2015.

Economic Review

Estimating the Monetary Policy Rule Perceived by Forecasters

By Brent Bundick

Brent Bundick examines whether the FOMC’s implicit monetary policy rule, as perceived by professional forecasters, changed when the federal funds rate reached its effective lower bound. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Competition in Local Agricultural Lending Markets: The Effect of the Farm Credit System

By Charles Morris, James Wilkinson and Eric Hogue

Charles S. Morris, James Wilkinson, and Eric Hogue assess the effects of Farm Credit Association lending on measures of competition in agricultural banking markets.

Sentiment of the FOMC: Unscripted

By San Cannon

San Cannon applies text-mining techniques to FOMC transcripts to identify patterns in Committee discourse over time as well as changes in the relationship between participants' tone and economic activity.

Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility

By Troy DavigNida Çakır MelekJun NieA. Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen 
Troy Davig, Nida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin

Has Forward Guidance Been Effective?

By A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker
A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker compare forward guidance announcements with changes in the effective federal funds rate and find the two policy measures have had similar macroeconomic effects. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin

Monetary Policy Shocks and Aggregate Supply

By Willem Van Zandweghe
Willem Van Zandweghe examines whether monetary policy has had long-lasting effects on labor productivity and potential output. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Has the U.S. Economy Become Less Interest Rate Sensitive?

By Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao
Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao investigate shifts in the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates by examining how total employment responds to changes in monetary policy. 

The Response of Employment to Changes in Oil and Gas Exploration and Drilling

By Jason Brown
Jason Brown examines how the recent period of declining oil prices has affected employment in oil- and gas-producing states.

Millennials, Baby Boomers, and Rebounding Multifamily Home Construction

By Jordan Rappaport
Jordan Rappaport analyzes the forces driving the recent rebound in multifamily construction. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Commemorating 100 Years of Research

By Esther L. George
This year, the Kansas City Fed will commemorate the centennial of its flagship research publication, the Economic Review. Esther L. George, the Bank's President and Chief Executive Officer, highlights how the publication has evolved over time.

Should Monetary Policy Monitor Risk Premiums in Financial Markets?

By Taeyoung Doh, Guangye Cao and Daniel Molling
The authors examine whether risk premiums can predict future economic growth and whether monetary policy can influence risk premiums. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

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Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium

Our annual symposium draws central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world. The proceedings include papers, commentaries and discussions.
About the Symposium | Archive

Monetary Policy & Macroeconomics

Issues of importance to the Federal Reserve, including financial markets, banking, monetary policy and more.

Banking, Payments & Financial Markets

Issues affecting the banking and payments industries.

Community Research

Economic issues affecting low- and moderate- income communities, including fair and impartial access to credit.

Regional Research

Economic geography and developments for national monetary policy deliberations.

Agriculture & Rural Economies

Insights on agricultural and rural economies regionally and nationally.