Center for Agriculture and the Economy
Leveraging expertise from the Kansas City Fed, the Center provides timely analysis of industry developments and conducts ongoing research on the agricultural economy.
Government assistance and insurance payouts will limit losses for some crop farms
December 22, 2025
Profit opportunities in the crop sector remained limited at the end of 2025, but the combination of ad hoc government assistance and expected crop insurance payouts is likely to support farm financial conditions. A hypothetical analysis estimates a corn and soybean farm with average U.S. yields, selling at average annual cash prices will lose $80 per acre in 2025. If these conditions persist in early 2026, those losses could be cut in half with disbursements from the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Program and mostly offset with payments from revenue and price protection programs. The level of direct support is notable compared with recent years and together with aid from the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) earlier this year, could ease financial stress for many crop producers.
Note: Profits are based on production costs from the USDA cost and return estimates and national average yields and prices. For purposes of this analysis, the opportunity cost of unpaid labor is excluded from total costs. Government payments from 2010-2023 are estimated using average government payments per farm for corn and soybean specialized operations reported in the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS). Estimated payments from FBA and ARC/PLC in 2025 are derived from analysis published by University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
Sources: USDA, Wall Street Journal, Reports of Condition and Income, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City staff calculations
Research and Information
Ag Finance Updates
Read articles summarizing recent national developments in agricultural finance and lending.
Ag Bulletin
Review the latest Ag Bulletin for a summary of national ag conditions.
Ag Credit Survey
The quarterly Ag Credit Survey provides current indicators of the financial performance of Tenth District agriculture.
Ag Research Hub
Find all of the Kansas City Fed's research and resources on agriculture and related topics.
System Resources
Find links to research and resources on agriculture and rural topics from throughout the Federal Reserve System.
Latest Research and Updates
Agriculture
-
Tighter Liquidity and Improved Earnings at Agricultural Banks | -
Firm-Level Pass-Through of Supply Chain Disruptions: Insights from the U.S. Beef Market | -
Omaha Branch holds Economic Forum | -
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Launches Center for Agriculture and the Economy | -
Biofuel Policies Are Likely to Drive Future Demand for U.S. Corn and Soybeans | -
Food and Agriculture Economic Summit Highlights Factors Influencing Investment in Food Production and Distribution |
Agricultural Finance
-
Tighter Liquidity and Improved Earnings at Agricultural Banks | -
Credit Conditions Tighten Gradually | -
Disparate Conditions in Crop and Livestock Sectors Evident in Credit Conditions | -
Larger Operating and Livestock Loans Drive Farm Lending Demand | -
Farm Debt at Agricultural Banks Continues to Build | -
Weakness in Crop Sector Weighs Further on Farm Finances |
Presentations
- Update on the U.S. Agricultural Economy |
- Outlook for the U.S. and U.S. Agriculture |
- Farm Economy and Financial Outlook |
-
Remarks on the Outlook and Monetary Policy | - Economic Outlook for U.S. Agriculture - May |
- Economic Outlook for U.S. Agriculture |
The Kansas City Fed's Continuing Commitment to Agriculture
Through regular surveys, analysis and connections across the industry, the Kansas City Fed has had a longstanding focus on U.S. and global agriculture. Leveraging this expertise, the Center for Agriculture and the Economy serves as a resource within the Federal Reserve System by providing timely analysis of industry developments and conducting ongoing research on the agricultural economy. The Kansas City Fed is committed to understanding developments in the agricultural economy and gathering perspectives from rural America in order to include them in discussions on the national economy.
The Kansas City Fed's Ag Connection
Agriculture is central to the Kansas City Fed’s 10th District’s economy, from farm production and food manufacturing to agricultural banking and finance. Through its regular surveys, analysis and connections across the industry, the Kansas City Fed has had a longstanding focus on the U.S. and global agricultural economy. At the same time, connecting with stakeholders and ag industry professionals through events, round tables and conversations is critical to the Bank’s work.