Inflation Focus

Experts at the Kansas City Fed have developed a collection of research and resources exploring inflation and its impact on consumers, industries and economies.

In economics, inflation occurs when prices increase rapidly, resulting in a decline of purchasing power.

Keeping prices stable is a primary mission of the Federal Reserve. One way the Kansas City Fed monitors inflation trends is through the work of experts and economists. Below, you’ll find an archive of the Bank’s latest research and resources related to inflation.


40 result(s) found
Article Title Author(s) Date Type
Nida Çakır Melek
Emily Pollard Expandable Row
July 28, 2023
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To Reach the Fed’s Inflation Target, Interest Rates May Have to Remain Restrictive for Some Time

The Federal Reserve has raised the federal funds rate by 500 basis points since March 2022. But how tight is the current policy stance? We account for the federal funds rate, inflation expectations, and the natural rate of interest and find that monetary policy has only been restrictive since 2023:Q1. We find that to bring inflation down to 2 percent, the Federal Reserve may have to keep the federal funds rate in restrictive territory for some time.

Johannes Matschke
Sai A. Sattiraju Expandable Row
June 29, 2023
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Johannes Matschke Expandable Row
June 29, 2023
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Nida Çakır Melek
Emily Pollard Expandable Row
June 23, 2023
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Andrew Glover
José Mustre-del-Río
Alice von Ende-Becker Expandable Row
June 2, 2023
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Financial Stress May Do Relatively Little to Reduce Inflation

Financial stress has risen in the wake of recent bank failures. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has been tightening the stance of monetary policy to reduce elevated inflation. While both banking stress and tighter monetary policy can slow economic activity, historical evidence suggests that financial stress may be less effective in reducing inflation.

Brent Bundick
Johannes Matschke
A. Lee Smith Expandable Row
May 24, 2023
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Supermarket sticker shock continues around the region

Though food prices have ebbed and flowed over the past 20 years, they have continued to climb in the past couple years, remaining high since the pandemic. Tight labor markets and wage increases have put pressure on the costs of labor, production and distribution.

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May 18, 2023
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Corporate Profits Contributed a Lot to Inflation in 2021 but Little in 2022—A Pattern Seen in Past Economic Recoveries

Corporate profits rose quickly in 2021 along with inflation, raising concerns about corporations driving up prices to increase profits. Although corporate profits indeed contributed to inflation in 2021, their contribution fell in 2022. This pattern is not unusual: in previous economic recoveries, corporate profits were the main contributor to inflation in the first year and displaced by costs in the second year.

Andrew Glover
José Mustre-del-Río
Jalen Nichols Expandable Row
May 12, 2023
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Will High Underlying Inflation Persist?

Underlying inflation—the rate of inflation that prevails after temporary imbalances in the economy are resolved—can help policymakers gauge whether current high rates of inflation are likely to persist. Using survey-based inflation expectations, we show that if current inflation forecasts are realized, underlying inflation should decline toward 2 percent in 2024. However, if inflation continues to surprise to the upside, underlying inflation may remain elevated for some time.

Amaze Lusompa
Sai A. Sattiraju Expandable Row
May 10, 2023
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Tight Labor Markets Have Been a Key Contributor to High Food Inflation

Food inflation remains higher than measures of overall inflation, and labor markets have been tight. We find that processed food products have driven recent increases in grocery prices, and we argue that labor market tightness affects the prices of these labor-intensive products in particular through increases in production and distribution costs. Food inflation at grocery stores could remain elevated if price pressures on the supply side persist and demand for food at home remains strong.

Francisco Scott
Cortney Cowley
Ty Kreitman Expandable Row
April 19, 2023
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