by: Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie
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RWP 18-14, December 2018

We construct a monthly measure of foreign economic growth based on a wide range of cross-county indicators. Unlike GDP data, which are normally released with a delay of one to two quarters in most countries, our monthly measure incorporates monthly information up to the current month. As new information arrives, this measure of foreign growth can be updated as frequently as daily. This monthly measure of foreign growth not only helps gauge the economic conditions in other countries but also provides a timely measure of foreign demand to help forecast U.S. export growth.

JEL Classification: E17, F17

Article Citation

  • Hakkio, Craig S., and Jun Nie. “Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country Data.” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Research Working Paper no. 18-14, December. Available at External Linkhttps://doi.org/10.18651/RWP2018-14

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  • Nie, Jun, and Amy Oksol. 2018. “Forecasting Current-Quarter U.S. Exports Using Satellite Data.” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, vol. 103, no. 2, pp. 1–20.

  • Nie, Jun, and Lisa Taylor. 2013. “Economic Growth in Foreign Regions and U.S. Export Growth.” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, vol. 98, no. 2, pp. 31–63.

  • Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. 2002. “Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 97, no. 460, pp. 1167–1179.