By Craig S. Hakkio
Craig S. Hakkio finds that while the median of some long-term inflation forecasts has declined, the distribution of individual forecasts suggests long-term inflation expectations have in fact become better anchored.
By Troy Davig, Nida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, A. Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen
Troy Davig, Nida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline.
A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker compare forward guidance announcements with changes in the effective federal funds rate and find the two policy measures have had similar macroeconomic effects.
Yoonsoo Lee and Willem Van Zandweghe find unusually accommodative monetary policy reduces the reallocation of capital and workers from exiting firms to new ones, potentially slowing productivity growth.
Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao investigate shifts in the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates by examining how total employment responds to changes in monetary policy.
and William Xu
Mustre-del-Río and Xu compare two measures of voluntary turnover and find job quitters have recently become more optimistic about their employment opportunities.
The authors examine whether risk premiums can predict future economic growth and whether monetary policy can influence risk premiums.
By Andrew Forester
Foerster examines three periods of heightened stock market volatility during the economic recovery to find uncertainty may have slowed employment growth.
By Jordan Rappaport
The recovery of U.S. housing construction paused during the first half of 2013. Stronger growth is likely to resume in the near term. But over the long term, home construction is likely to contract as aging baby boomers downsize.
By Alison Felix and Kate Watkins
People tend to earn less and spend less when they retire. As the baby boom generation retires, the aging of the U.S. population will likely reduce state governments’ revenue per capita from income taxes and sales taxes significantly.
By Willem Van Zandweghe and John Carter Braxton
Despite record-low interest rates, the pace of the current economic recovery has been only moderate. One reason is that the positive impact of lowered interest rates on consumer purchases of durable goods has diminished.
The authors perform a statistical analysis to assess whether risk premiums can predict future economic growth and whether monetary policy can influence risk premiums.