Forthcoming

Do Changes in Reserve Balances Still Influence the Federal Funds Rate?

By A. Lee Smith Declining reserves have placed upward pressure on the federal funds rate in recent years despite the payment of interest on reserve balances.

4th Quarter 2018

The Faster Growth of Larger, Less Crowded Locations

By Jordan Rappaport Jobs and residents have increasingly migrated to larger, less crowded metros, where business productivity and urban amenities have increased.

Additional files: Data Supplement

The Response of U.S. Investment to Oil Price Shocks: Does the Shale Boom Matter?

By Nida Cakir Melek The shale boom led to greater spillovers from oil investment to aggregate investment.

Machine Learning Approaches to Macroeconomic Forecasting

By Aaron Smalter Hall A machine learning model can incorporate large amounts of data to forecast the unemployment rate.

Economic Review Archive

Foreword

In July 2018, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosted a symposium titled “Agriculture in a Global Economy.” Esther L. George, the Bank’s President and Chief Executive Officer, highlights the expanding scope of agricultural trade and the agriculture sector’s position in the global economy.

Exploring the Economic Impact of Changing Climate Conditions and Trade Policies on Agricultural Trade: A CGE Analysis

By Eddy Bekkers and Lee Ann Jackson Bekkers and Jackson explore the potential effect of climate-change-related productivity growth and trade costs on global economic outcomes.

The Business Merits of Agricultural Trade

By Michael A. Boland Boland reviews the advantages and disadvantages of international agricultural trade and discusses the role of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements.

Agriculture and International Labor Flows

By Philip Martin Martin examines how farm employers have responded to the changing cost and composition of the farm labor force.

Agrifood Foreign Direct Investment and Waves of Globalization of Emerging Markets: Lessons for U.S. Firms

By Titus Awokuse and Thomas Reardon Awokuse and Reardon discuss how agrifood firms have adapted their foreign direct investment strategies through three waves of globalization.

The Widening Divide in Business Turnover between Large and Small Urban Areas

By Jason P. Brown Business turnover has declined much more sharply in small urban areas than in large ones.

Mapping Stress in Agricultural Lending

By Cortney Cowley Stress in agricultural lending, measured by repayment rates for farm loans, spiked across the Tenth District in 2016.

Energy Investment Variability within the Macroeconomy

By David Rodziewicz U.S. investment has become more variable due to both increased energy investment and an increased concentration of investment in more volatile segments of the energy sector.

Forecasting Current-Quarter U.S. Exports Using Satellite Data

By Jun Nie and Amy Oksol Incorporating nighttime lights data from satellites improves forecasts of U.S. exports.

Bank Financial Restatements and Market Discipline

By W. Blake Marsh and Raluca A. Roman Bank shareholders and depositors exert market discipline on banks that misreport financial statements.

Who Are the Unbanked? Characteristics Beyond Income

By Fumiko Hayashi and Sabrina Minhas Low-income households without internet access are much more likely to be unbanked than those with internet access.
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