Forthcoming

Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy on and off the Zero Lower Bound

By Taeyoung Doh and Jason Choi Taeyoung Doh and Jason Choi propose a new “shadow” short-term interest rate to measure the stance of policy when the federal funds rate was constrained by the zero lower bound.

Access to Electronic Payments Systems by Unbanked Consumers

By Fumiko Hayashi Fumiko Hayashi identifies electronic payment products that can mitigate unbanked consumers’ problems with the banking system.

Second Quarter 2016

Global Uncertainty and U.S. Exports

By Nicholas Sly Nicholas Sly finds that periods of greater uncertainty and financial volatility within U.S. trading partners are associated with substantially lower demand for U.S. goods. 

Consumption Growth Regimes and the Post-Financial Crisis Recovery

By Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi find that consumption has grown more slowly after the Great Recession due to the continued influence of persistent factors unusual to see outside recessions.

Has the Relationship between Bank Size and Profitability Changed?

By Rajdeep Sengupta and Kristen Regehr Kristen Regehr and Rajdeep Sengupta explore whether the relationship between bank size and profitability changed after the 2007–09 financial crisis.

Economic Review Archive

Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections

By George Kahn and Andrew Palmer George A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer assess how FOMC participants' projections that policy would lift off from its effective lower bound related to their projections for inflation and unemployment. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

The Lasting Damage from the Financial Crisis to U.S. Productivity

By Michael Redmond and Willem Van Zandweghe Michael Redmond and Willem Van Zandweghe find that tight credit conditions during the 2007–09 financial crisis dampened productivity, leaving it on a lower trajectory. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Data Breach Notification Laws

By Richard Sullivan and Jesse Leigh Maniff

Richard J. Sullivan and Jesse Leigh Maniff study individual provisions within states' data breach notification laws to evaluate their effects on identity theft.


Sentiment of the FOMC: Unscripted

By San Cannon San Cannon applies text-mining techniques to FOMC transcripts to identify patterns in Committee discourse over time as well as changes in the relationship between participants’ tone and economic activity.  

Estimating the Monetary Policy Rule Perceived by Forecasters

By Brent Bundick Brent Bundick examines whether the FOMC’s implicit monetary policy rule, as perceived by professional forecasters, changed when the federal funds rate reached its effective lower bound. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Competition in Local Agricultural Lending Markets: The Effect of the Farm Credit System

By Charles Morris, James Wilkinson and Eric Hogue Charles S. Morris, James Wilkinson, and Eric Hogue assess the effects of Farm Credit Association lending on measures of competition in agricultural banking markets.

Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility

By Troy DavigNida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, A. Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen 
Troy Davig, Nida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin

Monetary Policy Shocks and Aggregate Supply

By Willem Van Zandweghe
Willem Van Zandweghe examines whether monetary policy has had long-lasting effects on labor productivity and potential output. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin. 

Has Forward Guidance Been Effective?

By A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker
A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker compare forward guidance announcements with changes in the effective federal funds rate and find the two policy measures have had similar macroeconomic effects. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin

Has the U.S. Economy Become Less Interest Rate Sensitive?

By Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao
Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao investigate shifts in the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates by examining how total employment responds to changes in monetary policy. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Millennials, Baby Boomers, and Rebounding Multifamily Home Construction

By Jordan Rappaport
Jordan Rappaport analyzes the forces driving the recent rebound in multifamily construction. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

The Response of Employment to Changes in Oil and Gas Exploration and Drilling

By Jason Brown
Jason Brown examines how the recent period of declining oil prices has affected employment in oil- and gas-producing states.

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