Fourth Quarter 2015

Sentiment of the FOMC: Unscripted

By San Cannon

San Cannon applies text-mining techniques to FOMC transcripts to identify patterns in Committee discourse over time as well as changes in the relationship between participants’ tone and economic activity.  

Estimating the Monetary Policy Rule Perceived by Forecasters

By Brent Bundick

Brent Bundick examines whether the FOMC’s implicit monetary policy rule, as perceived by professional forecasters, changed when the federal funds rate reached its effective lower bound. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Competition in Local Agricultural Lending Markets: The Effect of the Farm Credit System

By Charles Morris, James Wilkinson and Eric Hogue

Charles S. Morris, James Wilkinson, and Eric Hogue assess the effects of Farm Credit Association lending on measures of competition in agricultural banking markets.

Third Quarter 2015

Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility

By Troy DavigNida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, A. Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen 
Troy Davig, Nida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin

Monetary Policy Shocks and Aggregate Supply

By Willem Van Zandweghe
Willem Van Zandweghe examines whether monetary policy has had long-lasting effects on labor productivity and potential output. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin. 

Has Forward Guidance Been Effective?

By A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker
A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker compare forward guidance announcements with changes in the effective federal funds rate and find the two policy measures have had similar macroeconomic effects. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin

Economic Review Archive

Has the U.S. Economy Become Less Interest Rate Sensitive?

By Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao
Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao investigate shifts in the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates by examining how total employment responds to changes in monetary policy. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Millennials, Baby Boomers, and Rebounding Multifamily Home Construction

By Jordan Rappaport
Jordan Rappaport analyzes the forces driving the recent rebound in multifamily construction. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

The Response of Employment to Changes in Oil and Gas Exploration and Drilling

By Jason Brown
Jason Brown examines how the recent period of declining oil prices has affected employment in oil- and gas-producing states.

Commemorating 100 Years of Research

By Esther L. George
This year, the Kansas City Fed will commemorate the centennial of its flagship research publication, the Economic Review. Esther L. George, the Bank's President and Chief Executive Officer, highlights how the publication has evolved over time.

Should Monetary Policy Monitor Risk Premiums in Financial Markets?

By Taeyoung Doh, Guangye Cao and Daniel Molling
The authors examine whether risk premiums can predict future economic growth and whether monetary policy can influence risk premiums. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Bank Consolidation and Merger Activity Following the Crisis

By Michal Kowalik, Troy Davig, Charles S. Morris, and Kristen Regehr 
Michal Kowalik, Troy Davig, Charles S. Morris, and Kristen Regehr analyze the financial characteristics of acquired community banks from 2011 to 2014.

What Could Lower Prices Mean for U.S. Oil Production?

By Nida Cakir Melek
Melek estimates the effects of the recent oil price decline on 2015 oil production. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Accounting for Changes in the U.S. Budget Deficit

By Troy Davig and Michael Redmond
After rising substantially during the Great Recession, the U.S. federal budget has declined the past few years. The authors introduce a framework to gauge how three factors have contributed to this decline. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Implications of Recent U.S. Energy Trends for Trade Forecasts

By Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie
The energy sector has undergone significant structural change over the last two decades. The authors introduce a model separating energy and non-energy components of trade to predict how future changes in U.S. energy production might affect trade forecasts.

The Effect of Risk and Organizational Structures on Bank Capital Ratios

By Rajdeep Sengupta and Eric W. Hogue
Capital holdings can protect banks against failure, but banks may have mixed incentives to hold capital in excess of regulatory minimums. The authors examine how a bank’s riskiness and organizational structure affect its capital holdings.

The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty

By Andrew Foerster
Recovery from the recent financial crisis has been sluggish by historical standards, and employment growth has been similarly disappointing. The author introduces a statistical model to analyze spikes in stock market volatility during these periods and thus quantify uncertainty's influence.

Does Health Care Reform Support Self-Employment?

By Didem Tüzemen and Thealexa Becker
Health insurance access can influence individuals' labor market decisions. The authors examine the Massachusetts Health Care Reform Act and find the reform may have supported self-employment in the state. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Controlling Security Risk and Fraud in Payment Systems

By Richard J. Sullivan
SummaryA poor record of recent data breaches may have undermined the public's confidence in payment security. The author examines fraud loss across payment methods to evaluate current security performance and highlight potential improvements.

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