Third Quarter 2016
Taeyoung Doh and Jason Choi propose a new “shadow” short-term interest rate to measure the stance of policy when the federal funds rate was constrained by the zero lower bound.Additional files: Data Supplement
Second Quarter 2016
Economic Review Archive
Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the FOMC's Summary of Economic ProjectionsBy George A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer George A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer assess how FOMC participants' projections that policy would lift off from its effective lower bound related to their projections for inflation and unemployment. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
Troy Davig, Nida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
Jordan Rappaport analyzes the forces driving the recent rebound in multifamily construction. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
Jason Brown examines how the recent period of declining oil prices has affected employment in oil- and gas-producing states.