Third Quarter 2015
By Troy Davig, Nida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, A. Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen
Troy Davig, Nida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
Second Quarter 2015
Jordan Rappaport analyzes the forces driving the recent rebound in multifamily construction. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
Jason Brown examines how the recent period of declining oil prices has affected employment in oil- and gas-producing states.
Economic Review Archive
The authors examine whether risk premiums can predict future economic growth and whether monetary policy can influence risk premiums. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
Michal Kowalik, Troy Davig, Charles S. Morris, and Kristen Regehr analyze the financial characteristics of acquired community banks from 2011 to 2014.
By Troy Davig and Michael Redmond
After rising substantially during the Great Recession, the U.S. federal budget has declined the past few years. The authors introduce a framework to gauge how three factors have contributed to this decline. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
By Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie
The energy sector has undergone significant structural change over the last two decades. The authors introduce a model separating energy and non-energy components of trade to predict how future changes in U.S. energy production might affect trade forecasts.
By Rajdeep Sengupta and Eric W. Hogue
Capital holdings can protect banks against failure, but banks may have mixed incentives to hold capital in excess of regulatory minimums. The authors examine how a bank’s riskiness and organizational structure affect its capital holdings.
By Andrew Foerster
Recovery from the recent financial crisis has been sluggish by historical standards, and employment growth has been similarly disappointing. The author introduces a statistical model to analyze spikes in stock market volatility during these periods and thus quantify uncertainty's influence.
By Didem Tüzemen and Thealexa Becker
Health insurance access can influence individuals' labor market decisions. The authors examine the Massachusetts Health Care Reform Act and find the reform may have supported self-employment in the state. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
By Richard J. Sullivan
SummaryA poor record of recent data breaches may have undermined the public's confidence in payment security. The author examines fraud loss across payment methods to evaluate current security performance and highlight potential improvements.
By Craig S. Hakkio and George A. Kahn
The authors compare a "shadow" federal funds rate to prescriptions from an estimated policy rule and find policy was not sufficiently accommodative after the recession but became more accommodative over time.
By Fumiko Hayashi and Terri Bradford
U.S. merchants believe new mobile and cloud technologies, combined with consumer adoption of smartphones, will address some current barriers to the use of mobile payments. The authors focus exclusively on merchants' preferences and examine key attributes of mobile payments.
By Chuck S. Morris and Kristen Regehr
SummaryThe authors examine net interest income starting in the late 1970s. They find low net interest income can be largely explained by current economic and banking conditions, suggesting it will return to pre-recession levels as monetary policy normalizes and the economic recovery continues.