1st Quarter 2017

Bond Premiums and the Natural Real Rate of Interest

By Craig S. Hakkio and A. Lee Smith Craig S. Hakkio and A. Lee Smith find that bond premiums are an important determinant of the natural real rate of interest, or r*.

Crowdedness, Centralized Employment, and Multifamily Home Construction

By Jordan Rappaport

Jordan Rappaport finds factors related to population, population density, and centralized employment have driven much of the recent variation in multifamily construction across metros.

Additional files: Data Supplement

Identifying State-Level Recessions

By Jason P. Brown Jason P. Brown tests two approaches to determining whether states in the Tenth Federal Reserve District are in a recession.

4th Quarter 2016

Residential Rent Affordability across U.S. Metropolitan Areas

By Kelly D. Edmiston Kelly D. Edmiston examines recent trends in rent affordability for both low- and middle-income households and across metropolitan areas.   

The Dispersion of Farmland Values in the Tenth District

By Cortney Cowley Cortney Cowley examines the widening dispersion of farmland values in the Tenth Federal Reserve District and finds that land quality, climate, and commodity sales have played important roles.

Enforcement Actions and Bank Loan Contracting

By Raluca A. Roman Raluca A. Roman finds that bank loans initiated after an enforcement action have lower interest rates than loans initiated before an enforcement action.

Economic Review Archive

Foreword

In July 2016, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosted a symposium titled “Agriculture’s Water Economy.” Esther L. George, the Bank’s President and Chief Executive Officer, highlights the symposium’s themes and importance.

Challenges and Policies for Global Water and Food Security

By Mark W. Rosegrant Mark W. Rosegrant discusses the challenges water scarcity will pose to food security in the future and highlights policies and technologies that can address them.

Long-Term Trajectories: Crop Yields, Farmland, and Irrigated Agriculture

By Kenneth G. Cassman Kenneth G. Cassman identifies the need for increased, prioritized investment in agricultural research and development to accelerate crop yield gains while reducing negative effects to the environment.

Water Linkages beyond the Farm Gate: Implications for Agriculture

By Bonnie G. Colby Bonnie G. Colby examines water scarcity challenges in non-agricultural sectors that may, in turn, affect agricultural water use and cost. 

Investing in Adaptation: The Challenge of Responding to Water Scarcity in Irrigated Agriculture

By Susanne M. Scheierling and David O. Treguer Susanne M. Scheierling and David O. Treguer discuss adaptations in agricultural water management and the joint role both technical and institutional measures play in achieving key objectives.

Water Allocation in the West: Challenges and Opportunities

By Mike Young Mike Young reviews Australia’s successful water reforms and proposes ways to improve water use in the United States.

Conference Themes and Policy Responses

By Richard Howitt

Richard Howitt reflects on the themes of this year's symposium and highlights some omitted topics worthy of further study.

Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy on and off the Zero Lower Bound

By Taeyoung Doh and Jason Choi

Taeyoung Doh and Jason Choi propose a new “shadow” short-term interest rate to measure the stance of policy when the federal funds rate was constrained by the zero lower bound.

Additional files: Data Supplement

Consumer Spending in China: The Past and the Future

By Jun Nie and Andrew Palmer Jun Nie and Andrew Palmer examine the recent rise in the share of consumer spending in Chinese GDP to assess whether China can become a consumption-driven economy.

Access to Electronic Payments Systems by Unbanked Consumers

By Fumiko Hayashi Fumiko Hayashi identifies electronic payment products that can mitigate unbanked consumers’ problems with the banking system.

Global Uncertainty and U.S. Exports

By Nicholas Sly Nicholas Sly finds that periods of greater uncertainty and financial volatility within U.S. trading partners are associated with substantially lower demand for U.S. goods. 

Consumption Growth Regimes and the Post-Financial Crisis Recovery

By Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi Andrew Foerster and Jason Choi find that consumption has grown more slowly after the Great Recession due to the continued influence of persistent factors unusual to see outside recessions.

Has the Relationship between Bank Size and Profitability Changed?

By Rajdeep Sengupta and Kristen Regehr Kristen Regehr and Rajdeep Sengupta explore whether the relationship between bank size and profitability changed after the 2007–09 financial crisis.

Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections

By George A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer George A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer assess how FOMC participants' projections that policy would lift off from its effective lower bound related to their projections for inflation and unemployment. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

The Lasting Damage from the Financial Crisis to U.S. Productivity

By Michael Redmond and Willem Van Zandweghe Michael Redmond and Willem Van Zandweghe find that tight credit conditions during the 2007–09 financial crisis dampened productivity, leaving it on a lower trajectory. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Data Breach Notification Laws

By Richard Sullivan and Jesse Leigh Maniff

Richard J. Sullivan and Jesse Leigh Maniff study individual provisions within states' data breach notification laws to evaluate their effects on identity theft.


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