First Quarter 2015

Commemorating 100 Years of Research

By Esther L. George
This year, the Kansas City Fed will commemorate the centennial of its flagship research publication, the Economic Review. Esther L. George, the Bank's President and Chief Executive Officer, highlights how the publication has evolved over time.

Should Monetary Policy Monitor Risk Premiums in Financial Markets?

By Taeyoung Doh, Guangye Cao and Daniel Molling
The authors examine whether risk premiums can predict future economic growth and whether monetary policy can influence risk premiums. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Bank Consolidation and Merger Activity Following the Crisis

By Michal Kowalik, Troy Davig, Charles S. Morris, and Kristen Regehr 
Michal Kowalik, Troy Davig, Charles S. Morris, and Kristen Regehr analyze the financial characteristics of acquired community banks from 2011 to 2014.

What Could Lower Prices Mean for U.S. Oil Production?

By Nida Cakir Melek
Melek estimates the effects of the recent oil price decline on 2015 oil production. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Featured Economists


Nida Cakir Melek | Regional and Community Research
Troy Davig | Chief Economic Policy Advisor
Charles S. Morris | Banking and Financial Markets
Taeyoung Doh | Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy
More bios

2014 Economic Review Archive

Accounting for Changes in the U.S. Budget Deficit

By Troy Davig and Michael Redmond
Summary After rising substantially during the Great Recession, the U.S. federal budget has declined the past few years. The authors introduce a framework to gauge how three factors have contributed to this decline. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Implications of Recent U.S. Energy Trends for Trade Forecasts

By Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie
Summary The energy sector has undergone significant structural change over the last two decades. The authors introduce a model separating energy and non-energy components of trade to predict how future changes in U.S. energy production might affect trade forecasts.

The Effect of Risk and Organizational Structures on Bank Capital Ratios

By Rajdeep Sengupta and Eric W. Hogue
SummaryCapital holdings can protect banks against failure, but banks may have mixed incentives to hold capital in excess of regulatory minimums. The authors examine how a bank’s riskiness and organizational structure affect its capital holdings.

The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty

By Andrew Foerster
SummaryRecovery from the recent financial crisis has been sluggish by historical standards, and employment growth has been similarly disappointing. The author introduces a statistical model to analyze spikes in stock market volatility during these periods and thus quantify uncertainty's influence.

Does Health Care Reform Support Self-Employment?

By Didem Tüzemen and Thealexa Becker
SummaryHealth insurance access can influence individuals' labor market decisions. The authors examine the Massachusetts Health Care Reform Act and find the reform may have supported self-employment in the state. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Controlling Security Risk and Fraud in Payment Systems

By Richard J. Sullivan
SummaryA poor record of recent data breaches may have undermined the public's confidence in payment security. The author examines fraud loss across payment methods to evaluate current security performance and highlight potential improvements.

Evaluating Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound

By Craig S. Hakkio and George A. Kahn
SummaryThe authors compare a "shadow" federal funds rate to prescriptions from an estimated policy rule and find policy was not sufficiently accommodative after the recession but became more accommodative over time.

Mobile Payments: Merchants' Perspectives

By Fumiko Hayashi and Terri Bradford
SummaryU.S. merchants believe new mobile and cloud technologies, combined with consumer adoption of smartphones, will address some current barriers to the use of mobile payments. The authors focus exclusively on merchants' preferences and examine key attributes of mobile payments.

What Explains Low Net Interest Income at Community Banks?

By Chuck S. Morris and Kristen Regehr
SummaryThe authors examine net interest income starting in the late 1970s. They find low net interest income can be largely explained by current economic and banking conditions, suggesting it will return to pre-recession levels as monetary policy normalizes and the economic recovery continues.

Evolving Market Perceptions of Federal Reserve Policy Objectives

By George A. Kahn and Lisa Taylor
Summary The authors show that changes in U.S. monetary policy are associated with movements in a variety of asset prices, both in the United States and abroad.

Global Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy: Is Unconventional Policy Different?

By Travis J. Berge and Guangye Cao
Summary The authors show that changes in U.S. monetary policy are associated with movements in a variety of asset prices, both in the United States and abroad.

The Weakened Transmission of Monetary Policy to Consumer Loan Rates

By Nada Mora
SummaryThe author examines the effect of the Fed's efforts to stimulate consumer spending and finds the degree to which banks have passed on the benefits of lower interest rates to consumers has weakened since the end of 2008.

Production of Natural Gas From Shale in Local Economies: A Resource Blessing or Curse?

By Jason P. Brown
SummaryThe author examines county-level labor market conditions in the central United States and finds a modest positive effect in counties where natural gas production has increased, and little evidence of a natural resource curse.

More Economic Review articles