First Quarter 2016
Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the FOMC's Summary of Economic ProjectionsGeorge A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer assess how FOMC participants' projections that policy would lift off from its effective lower bound related to their projections for inflation and unemployment. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
Fourth Quarter 2015
Economic Review Archive
Troy Davig, Nida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
Jordan Rappaport analyzes the forces driving the recent rebound in multifamily construction. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
Jason Brown examines how the recent period of declining oil prices has affected employment in oil- and gas-producing states.
The authors examine whether risk premiums can predict future economic growth and whether monetary policy can influence risk premiums. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
Michal Kowalik, Troy Davig, Charles S. Morris, and Kristen Regehr analyze the financial characteristics of acquired community banks from 2011 to 2014.
By Troy Davig and Michael Redmond
After rising substantially during the Great Recession, the U.S. federal budget has declined the past few years. The authors introduce a framework to gauge how three factors have contributed to this decline. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
By Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie
The energy sector has undergone significant structural change over the last two decades. The authors introduce a model separating energy and non-energy components of trade to predict how future changes in U.S. energy production might affect trade forecasts.
By Rajdeep Sengupta and Eric W. Hogue
Capital holdings can protect banks against failure, but banks may have mixed incentives to hold capital in excess of regulatory minimums. The authors examine how a bank’s riskiness and organizational structure affect its capital holdings.