The Low-Hire, Low-Fire Labor Market Is Calm but Fragile
The unemployment rate has held steady at just above 4 percent in 2026. However, this low unemployment rate does not mean workers are finding jobs easily. Instead, unemployment is low because job loss is near historical lows. This low-hire, low-fire labor market may be a source of vulnerability. Although the current unemployment rate is identical to the unemployment rate in 1999, the labor market is less resilient. We show that a mild downturn akin to the 2001 recession would drive unemployment to 8 percent today compared with only 6 percent in 1999.
Labor and Demographics
Macroeconomics
Economic Bulletin
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Molly E. Hirner
Yusuf Mercan
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September 30, 2026
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Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Explored Innovation in Financial Markets
The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium brought together academics and policymakers from around the world to discuss how stablecoins, tokenization, and artificial intelligence could transform financial markets and reflect on what those changes may require of central banks and regulators.
AI
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
Macroeconomics
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Andrew Glover
Stefan A. Jacewitz
W. Blake Marsh
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September 28, 2026
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Private Nonprofit Colleges’ Growing Reliance on Graduate Students May Prove Unsustainable
As private nonprofit colleges face lagging undergraduate enrollments and growing financial difficulties, they have turned to graduate programs to increase their revenue. With undergraduate enrollments expected to decline, these colleges are likely to place an even greater emphasis on graduate programs going forward. However, recent government policy changes may also suppress graduate enrollment growth, testing colleges’ business models and the private nonprofit college sector in general.
Labor and Demographics
Macroeconomics
Economic Bulletin
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Emily Pollard
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September 23, 2026
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A Historical Analysis of the Federal Income Tax
Although income taxes have been the main source of U.S. government revenue for more than 100 years, tariffs once played a greater role in financing government activity. An analysis of U.S. fiscal receipts since 1789 suggests that the shift from tariff-based to income-based tax revenue was driven by three factors: a pressing need for more revenue during the first and second World Wars, a long-run shift in the composition of the U.S. labor force, and a widely held belief that reform was necessary.
Law and Economics
Macroeconomics
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Stephen D. Vasiljevic
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September 4, 2026
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High Costs and Uncertainty Will Likely Keep Cattle Inventories Low and Beef Prices Elevated for Some Time
Food-at-home inflation has ticked up in 2026, driven partly by higher beef prices. Beef prices have increased as U.S. consumption of beef has outpaced domestic supply. Despite favorable market signals, supply constraints may keep beef prices elevated for some time. Growing uncertainty in the conditions for raising cattle have prevented ranchers from meaningfully expanding herds to increase domestic supply. Continued uncertainty may stall herd rebuilding, further constraining the beef supply and driving up prices.
Regional
Economic Bulletin
Food Prices
Agriculture
Inflation
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Francisco Scott
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August 5, 2026
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In Recent Years, Inflation Expectations Increased After Oil Shocks and Stabilized Only Once Monetary Policy Tightened
Historically, U.S. households’ expectations for future inflation remained anchored after an oil price shock without significantly tighter monetary policy. Since 2010, however, oil price shocks have led household inflation expectations to increase more persistently, and expectations have only normalized after monetary policy tightened. This recent experience suggests monetary policy may play a role in stabilizing expectations after a shock.
Natural Resources and Environment
Monetary Policy
Economic Bulletin
Inflation
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Andrew Glover
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July 8, 2026
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Is the U.S. Labor Force Nearing Its Peak?
Despite an aging population, the U.S. labor force has grown substantially from pre-pandemic levels. Thus far, strong labor force participation rates and immigration flows have more than offset downward pressure from an increasing number of retirements. However, the U.S. labor force is likely nearing its peak: Increases in participation rates are unlikely to fully offset headwinds from slowing immigration and continued aging.
Labor and Demographics
Macroeconomics
Economic Bulletin
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Alison Felix
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June 29, 2026
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How Will Drought and Groundwater Depletion Affect Irrigated Farmland Values in the Tenth District?
Irrigated farmland commands a premium relative to non-irrigated farmland due to capitalized infrastructure, access rights to groundwater, and superior yield potential. In the Tenth Federal Reserve District, this premium has been increasing over time and rising faster during droughts. Whether this premium will subsist in the long term, however, depends on existing groundwater reserves, local rates of aquifer replenishment, and continued efficiency gains in water use.
Natural Resources and Environment
Regional
Economic Bulletin
Agriculture
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Ayesha Cooray
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June 24, 2026
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“Future of Banking: Powering Progress, Protecting Trust” Conference Explores Implications of Technological Change
On May 14, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s “Future of Banking: Powering Progress, Protecting Trust” conference brought together more than 100 community bankers to discuss how technology is changing the banking industry. Panelists covered topics ranging from digital assets, fraud, and artificial intelligence (AI) to the future of the community banking industry.
AI
Payments
Events
Community Banking
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Samantha Ahal
Nicholas Baker
Stefan A. Jacewitz
W. Blake Marsh
Stephanie Ziadeh
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June 22, 2026
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Resilience, Not Crisis, in the U.S. Agricultural Economy
Over the past few years, economic conditions in some segments of U.S. agriculture have deteriorated, raising questions about the longer-term trajectory of the sector and the viability of many farms throughout the country. However, the severity of current public narratives surrounding U.S. agriculture diverges from the signals apparent in underlying data.
Regional
Economic Bulletin
Agriculture
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Nate Kauffman
Ty Kreitman
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May 20, 2026
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