Declining Immigration and an Aging Population Are Reducing Breakeven Employment Growth
Lower breakeven employment growth may help contextualize recent soft employment readings.
Economic Bulletin
Labor and Demographics
Macroeconomics
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Yusuf Mercan
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October 14, 2025
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An Alternative Version of the KC Fed LMCI Suggests Little Change in the Labor Market in September
Delays in the release of official government data have increased the need for alternative measures of labor market health. We create an alternative version of the Kansas City Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) that excludes delayed government series. The restricted LMCI still provide a timely measure of labor market health that can be used to create real-time forecasts of unemployment and payroll growth. Currently, the restricted LMCI suggest little change in the labor market from August to September.
Labor and Demographics
Monetary Policy
Macroeconomics
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
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José Mustre-del-Río
Johnson Oliyide
Emily Pollard
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October 10, 2025
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Biofuel Policies Are Likely to Drive Future Demand for U.S. Corn and Soybeans
The supply of U.S. corn and soybeans has grown over the past decade and is projected to increase further in the coming years. In the past, large supplies have been partly absorbed by both export markets and biofuel production. However, going forward, exports are unlikely to grow sufficiently to offset projected supply increases. Instead, demand driven by changes in biofuel policies will be critical to absorbing increased corn and soybean availability and supporting prices for these crops.
Natural Resources and Environment
International
Economic Bulletin
Agriculture
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Francisco Scott
Ayesha Cooray
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September 26, 2025
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“Future of Banking: Navigating Change” Conference Highlights Opportunities and Challenges for Community Banking
On June 5, experts from the financial industry and regulatory community gathered at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. While panelists discussed challenges for community bankers, such as rising funding pressures and difficulty attracting talent, they also highlighted opportunities. As faster payments and strategic third-party relationships help level the technological playing field, community banks may be better able to differentiate themselves through relationship banking.
Payments
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Julian Alcazar
Nancy Fitzgerald
Stefan A. Jacewitz
W. Blake Marsh
Stephanie Ziadeh
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August 27, 2025
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Food and Agriculture Economic Summit Highlights Factors Influencing Investment in Food Production and Distribution
In June, industry experts met at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Food and Agriculture Economic Summit to discuss future investment in food and agriculture. Participants discussed several factors driving investment decisions, including emerging technologies, consumer trends, and recent economic developments. However, they also highlighted several constraints on investment, including costs associated with capital deployment, labor market conditions, and policy uncertainty.
Economic Bulletin
Agriculture
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Ty Kreitman
Nate Kauffman
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August 15, 2025
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Stablecoins Could Increase Treasury Demand, but Only by Reducing Demand for Other Assets
Many expect the establishment of a U.S. framework for stablecoins to increase demand for Treasuries, thereby supporting the Treasury market. Although stablecoin issuers are currently only a small part of the Treasury market, they could become a much larger part under some external projections. However, such a large funding shift could have important implications for other parts of the economy, such as a possible reduction in the supply of credit.
Law and Economics
Macroeconomics
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Stefan A. Jacewitz
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August 8, 2025
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Banks and Private Credit: Competitors or Partners?
Businesses are increasingly securing financing from the nonbank private credit market, which now rivals the size of comparable markets for bank loans or corporate bonds. While private credit may compete with banks for business loans, it also presents opportunities. Banks can lend to private credit funds themselves and generate larger returns than on traditional loans. Moreover, banks and private credit funds are likely lending to different borrowers, suggesting they may be more partners than direct competitors for now.
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Jordan Pandolfo
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August 6, 2025
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Amid Rising Input Costs, Many Tenth District Firms Report Passing Along Fewer Costs to Customers
According to surveys from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, an increasing share of Tenth District firms have reported rising input costs in 2025. Although many manufacturing and services firms raised their selling prices in response, they have reported a reduced ability to fully pass through cost increases compared with 2022. Accordingly, consumer price increases could be more muted, at least temporarily, than in past periods of rising input prices.
Regional
Economic Bulletin
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Cortney Cowley
Chase Farha
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August 1, 2025
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The Changing Investor Composition of U.S. Treasuries, Part 1: Foreign Treasury Sales Could Raise U.S. Yields
Although their market share has been falling steadily since 2010, foreign investors retain a large share of Treasuries outstanding. As a result, increased Treasury sales from this group could have substantial implications for yields. This Bulletin, the first in a two-part series, shows that a modest increase in liquidation among foreign investors could raise U.S. Treasury yields by 25 to 100 basis points. Even in the absence of outright sales, diminished purchasing of additional Treasury issuance is likely to drive up yields.
International
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Karlye Dilts Stedman
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July 9, 2025
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The Changing Investor Composition of U.S. Treasuries, Part 2: Who’s Buying U.S. Treasuries?
Part 1 of this two-Bulletin series highlights the changing demand among foreign investors for U.S. Treasuries. In Part 2, we explore how the composition of Treasury investors has shifted toward more yield-sensitive domestic private investors—such as banks, money funds, and hedge funds. This shift in investor composition has not only increased yields but also raised volatility.
International
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Rajdeep Sengupta
Joshua A. Jacobs
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July 9, 2025
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