The investment sector experienced an unusual, isolated recession during 2014–16, a period when the overall economy was in an expansion.
Does the Recent Decline in Household Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Signal a Loss of Confidence in the FOMC?By Brent Bundick, A. Lee Smith, Trenton Herriford and Emily Pollard
By Craig S. Hakkio
Craig S. Hakkio finds that while the median of some long-term inflation forecasts has declined, the distribution of individual forecasts suggests long-term inflation expectations have in fact become better anchored.
By Troy Davig, Nida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, A. Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen
Troy Davig, Nida Çakır Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tüzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline.
A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker compare forward guidance announcements with changes in the effective federal funds rate and find the two policy measures have had similar macroeconomic effects.
Yoonsoo Lee and Willem Van Zandweghe find unusually accommodative monetary policy reduces the reallocation of capital and workers from exiting firms to new ones, potentially slowing productivity growth.
Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao investigate shifts in the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates by examining how total employment responds to changes in monetary policy.
and William Xu
Mustre-del-Río and Xu compare two measures of voluntary turnover and find job quitters have recently become more optimistic about their employment opportunities.
The authors examine whether risk premiums can predict future economic growth and whether monetary policy can influence risk premiums.
By John Carter Braxton and Troy Davig
Is the trend of contracting of consumer debt turning? Outstanding consumer debt and the fraction of consumers with increasing debt grew in the last half of 2013, mainly fueled by those with low credit scores borrowing to buy autos.
By Travis Berge and Guangye Cao
Travis Berge and Guangye Cao assess the effects of U.S. monetary policy on asset prices in 50 countries. They find a similar reaction of asset prices to conventional and unconventional monetary policies.
By George A. Kahn and Lisa Taylor
Despite varying interpretations of the Fed's monetary policy mandate, the response of long-term rates to economic news remains relatively stable, suggesting markets perceive little change in policy objectives under different regimes.
By Jordan Rappaport and Paul Willen
The housing recovery has continued to struggle to gain traction. The vigilance with which lenders have been applying stricter lending standards suggests regulatory uncertainty may be playing a role.
By Craig S. Hakkio and George A. Kahn
Craig S. Hakkio and George A. Kahn compare a "shadow" federal funds rate to prescriptions from an estimated policy rule and find policy was not sufficiently accommodative after the recession but became more accommodative over time.
By Jonathan L. Willis and Craig S. Hakkio
In The Macro Bulletin, Craig S. Hakkio and Jonathan L. Willis update the Kansas City Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators and assess labor market improvements and momentum.
By Andrew Forester
Foerster examines three periods of heightened stock market volatility during the economic recovery to find uncertainty may have slowed employment growth.
By José Mustre-del-Río
In The Macro Bulletin, José Mustre-del-Río analyzes labor market conditions to find increasing competitive pressures have led to strong wage growth for job switchers.
By Craig S. Hakkio and Jonathan L. Willis
To help assess labor market conditions, two measures are proposed that show that the pace of improvement has recently increased, but two more years of similar improvement are needed to return conditions to historical averages.
By Troy Davig and José Mustre-del-Río
The number of people wanting work, but not looking for a job, has swelled in recent years. However, their flow rate back into unemployment has been declining, so they will likely only have a modest impact on the unemployment rate.
By Taeyoung Doh and Michael Connolly
The Federal Reserve has increased communication about the future path of the federal funds target rate over time. The use of forward guidance as a policy tool has raised questions about changes in how it influences the economy.
By Jun Nie and Lisa Taylor
U.S. export growth tends to vary with changes in different foreign regions' economic growth rates. This article estimates how much change in U.S. export growth may be associated with a rise or fall in a given region's GDP growth.
By Willem Van Zandweghe and John Carter Braxton
Despite record-low interest rates, the pace of the current economic recovery has been only moderate. One reason is that the positive impact of lowered interest rates on consumer purchases of durable goods has diminished.
By Alison Felix and Kate Watkins
People tend to earn less and spend less when they retire. As the baby boom generation retires, the aging of the U.S. population will likely reduce state governments’ revenue per capita from income taxes and sales taxes significantly.
By Jordan Rappaport
The recovery of U.S. housing construction paused during the first half of 2013. Stronger growth is likely to resume in the near term. But over the long term, home construction is likely to contract as aging baby boomers downsize.