How Should Bank Supervision and Regulation Be Tailored?
Tailoring bank supervision and regulation based on characteristics such as size and complexity has generated significant discussion recently. In practice, tailoring requires well-defined criteria to set requirements and expectations. I provide several considerations for implementing tailored supervisory regimes and illustrate a tradeoff between simple, but imprecise, rules of thumb and more precise, but complex, approaches.
Law and Economics
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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W. Blake Marsh
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November 12, 2025
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An Alternative Version of the KC Fed LMCI Suggests the Level of Activity Was Little Changed but Momentum Decelerated Sharply in October
Last month, we published an alternative version of the Kansas City Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) that excludes delayed government series to continue tracking the health of the labor market in a systematic fashion. The October reading of this restricted LMCI suggests little change in the labor market, but a deceleration in labor market momentum caused by a high number of announced job cuts. This has pushed down our model's forecast of payroll employment growth for October.
Labor and Demographics
Monetary Policy
Macroeconomics
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
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José Mustre-del-Río
Johnson Oliyide
Emily Pollard
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November 10, 2025
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Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Explored How Demographics and Technology Are Influencing Productivity and Labor Markets
The 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium brought together academics and policymakers from around the world to discuss labor market transitions due to demographic changes, the effects of new technologies on productivity, and the consequences of these trends for economic policy.
Labor and Demographics
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
Macroeconomics
Economic Bulletin
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Andrew Glover
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November 5, 2025
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Bank Funding and FHLB Advances
The composition of bank funding has changed considerably since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, revealing not only the importance of Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) advances in times of stress but also sized-based differences in access to capital markets once the stresses abate. The latter raises the question of whether large banks in particular can replace deposit outflows with capital market funding instead of relying on contingent funding from FHLBs.
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Joshua A. Jacobs
Rajdeep Sengupta
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October 16, 2025
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Declining Immigration and an Aging Population Are Reducing Breakeven Employment Growth
Two forces are weighing on labor force growth in the United States: an aging population and recent declines in immigration. These two forces reduce the number of new jobs required to maintain a stable unemployment rate each month, known as breakeven employment growth. Lower breakeven employment growth may help contextualize recent soft payroll readings, suggesting less weakness in labor demand than payroll numbers alone might imply.
Labor and Demographics
Macroeconomics
Economic Bulletin
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Yusuf Mercan
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October 15, 2025
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An Alternative Version of the KC Fed LMCI Suggests Little Change in the Labor Market in September
Delays in the release of official government data have increased the need for alternative measures of labor market health. We create an alternative version of the Kansas City Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) that excludes delayed government series. The restricted LMCI still provide a timely measure of labor market health that can be used to create real-time forecasts of unemployment and payroll growth. Currently, the restricted LMCI suggest little change in the labor market from August to September.
Labor and Demographics
Monetary Policy
Macroeconomics
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
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José Mustre-del-Río
Johnson Oliyide
Emily Pollard
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October 10, 2025
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Biofuel Policies Are Likely to Drive Future Demand for U.S. Corn and Soybeans
The supply of U.S. corn and soybeans has grown over the past decade and is projected to increase further in the coming years. In the past, large supplies have been partly absorbed by both export markets and biofuel production. However, going forward, exports are unlikely to grow sufficiently to offset projected supply increases. Instead, demand driven by changes in biofuel policies will be critical to absorbing increased corn and soybean availability and supporting prices for these crops.
Natural Resources and Environment
International
Economic Bulletin
Agriculture
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Francisco Scott
Ayesha Cooray
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September 26, 2025
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“Future of Banking: Navigating Change” Conference Highlights Opportunities and Challenges for Community Banking
On June 5, experts from the financial industry and regulatory community gathered at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. While panelists discussed challenges for community bankers, such as rising funding pressures and difficulty attracting talent, they also highlighted opportunities. As faster payments and strategic third-party relationships help level the technological playing field, community banks may be better able to differentiate themselves through relationship banking.
Payments
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Julian Alcazar
Nancy Fitzgerald
Stefan A. Jacewitz
W. Blake Marsh
Stephanie Ziadeh
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August 27, 2025
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Food and Agriculture Economic Summit Highlights Factors Influencing Investment in Food Production and Distribution
In June, industry experts met at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Food and Agriculture Economic Summit to discuss future investment in food and agriculture. Participants discussed several factors driving investment decisions, including emerging technologies, consumer trends, and recent economic developments. However, they also highlighted several constraints on investment, including costs associated with capital deployment, labor market conditions, and policy uncertainty.
Economic Bulletin
Agriculture
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Ty Kreitman
Nate Kauffman
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August 15, 2025
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Stablecoins Could Increase Treasury Demand, but Only by Reducing Demand for Other Assets
Many expect the establishment of a U.S. framework for stablecoins to increase demand for Treasuries, thereby supporting the Treasury market. Although stablecoin issuers are currently only a small part of the Treasury market, they could become a much larger part under some external projections. However, such a large funding shift could have important implications for other parts of the economy, such as a possible reduction in the supply of credit.
Law and Economics
Macroeconomics
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Stefan A. Jacewitz
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August 8, 2025
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