Food and Agriculture Economic Summit Highlights Factors Influencing Investment in Food Production and Distribution
In June, industry experts met at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Food and Agriculture Economic Summit to discuss future investment in food and agriculture. Participants discussed several factors driving investment decisions, including emerging technologies, consumer trends, and recent economic developments. However, they also highlighted several constraints on investment, including costs associated with capital deployment, labor market conditions, and policy uncertainty.
Economic Bulletin
Agriculture
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Ty Kreitman
Nate Kauffman
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August 15, 2025
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Stablecoins Could Increase Treasury Demand, but Only by Reducing Demand for Other Assets
Many expect the establishment of a U.S. framework for stablecoins to increase demand for Treasuries, thereby supporting the Treasury market. Although stablecoin issuers are currently only a small part of the Treasury market, they could become a much larger part under some external projections. However, such a large funding shift could have important implications for other parts of the economy, such as a possible reduction in the supply of credit.
Law and Economics
Macroeconomics
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Stefan A. Jacewitz
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August 8, 2025
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Banks and Private Credit: Competitors or Partners?
Businesses are increasingly securing financing from the nonbank private credit market, which now rivals the size of comparable markets for bank loans or corporate bonds. While private credit may compete with banks for business loans, it also presents opportunities. Banks can lend to private credit funds themselves and generate larger returns than on traditional loans. Moreover, banks and private credit funds are likely lending to different borrowers, suggesting they may be more partners than direct competitors for now.
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Jordan Pandolfo
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August 6, 2025
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Amid Rising Input Costs, Many Tenth District Firms Report Passing Along Fewer Costs to Customers
According to surveys from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, an increasing share of Tenth District firms have reported rising input costs in 2025. Although many manufacturing and services firms raised their selling prices in response, they have reported a reduced ability to fully pass through cost increases compared with 2022. Accordingly, consumer price increases could be more muted, at least temporarily, than in past periods of rising input prices.
Regional
Economic Bulletin
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Cortney Cowley
Chase Farha
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August 1, 2025
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The Changing Investor Composition of U.S. Treasuries, Part 1: Foreign Treasury Sales Could Raise U.S. Yields
Although their market share has been falling steadily since 2010, foreign investors retain a large share of Treasuries outstanding. As a result, increased Treasury sales from this group could have substantial implications for yields. This Bulletin, the first in a two-part series, shows that a modest increase in liquidation among foreign investors could raise U.S. Treasury yields by 25 to 100 basis points. Even in the absence of outright sales, diminished purchasing of additional Treasury issuance is likely to drive up yields.
International
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Karlye Dilts Stedman
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July 9, 2025
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The Changing Investor Composition of U.S. Treasuries, Part 2: Who’s Buying U.S. Treasuries?
Part 1 of this two-Bulletin series highlights the changing demand among foreign investors for U.S. Treasuries. In Part 2, we explore how the composition of Treasury investors has shifted toward more yield-sensitive domestic private investors—such as banks, money funds, and hedge funds. This shift in investor composition has not only increased yields but also raised volatility.
International
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Rajdeep Sengupta
Joshua A. Jacobs
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July 9, 2025
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Changes in International Trade Could Disproportionately Affect Employment in Pockets of the Tenth District
Although all states within the Tenth Federal Reserve District have some exposure to international trade, some states are more dependent on international trade than the national average. Counties within the Tenth District that have an outsized exposure to oil and gas production or transportation equipment manufacturing are both more exposed to international trade and more reliant on a comparatively low number of trade partners. Employment in these areas is most at risk of changes in international trade.
Labor and Demographics
Regional
Economic Bulletin
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John McCoy
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July 7, 2025
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Some Segments of the Agricultural Economy Are Particularly Sensitive to Changes in the Foreign-Born Farm Labor Supply
For years, many segments of the U.S. agriculture sector have relied on foreign-born and undocumented workers to meet labor demand in farm operations. While farm operators may be able to partly reduce this reliance through investments in machinery and further hiring through the agricultural guest worker visa program, these alternatives would take time to deploy and could substantially increase costs.
Labor and Demographics
Economic Bulletin
Agriculture
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Alexandra Hill
Francisco Scott
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June 30, 2025
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Is It Time to Add Food-at-Home Inflation to Measures of Core Inflation?
Since the mid-1970s, the Federal Reserve has used core inflation to examine trends in underlying inflation. Core inflation is considered a more stable measure as it excludes energy and food, historically viewed as the most volatile components of inflation. However, core inflation can be a challenge for central bankers to communicate, as food inflation is highly salient to consumers. We argue that food-at-home inflation has become less volatile over time and could be added to measures of core inflation with few drawbacks.
Monetary Policy
Economic Bulletin
Agriculture
Inflation
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Francisco Scott
José Mustre-del-Río
Amaze Lusompa
Jalen Nichols
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June 6, 2025
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Forecasting with Feelings: The Modest Link Between Consumer Sentiment and Spending
Recent declines in consumer sentiment have prompted concerns about an impending slowdown in spending growth. However, the link between consumer sentiment and growth in real household spending has been modest historically, suggesting changes in consumer sentiment are unlikely to significantly alter forecasts of household spending. Consistent with this interpretation, despite the downbeat tone from consumers, sentiment does not meaningfully alter near-term predictions of 2025 spending growth.
Macroeconomics
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
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José Mustre-del-Río
Jalen Nichols
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May 16, 2025
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