Note: Shaded areas denote National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)-defined recessions.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, NBER, and authors’ calculations. All data sources accessed through Haver Analytics.
Supply chain disruptions, as measured by the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), increased dramatically during the pandemic, reaching unprecedented levels (blue line). These supply shortages led to significant pressure on prices for goods, with core goods prices rising more than 7.5 percent from February 2021 to February 2022. However, since the start of 2022, supply chains have been improving steadily, helping cool core goods inflation (green line). Because core goods inflation has been following the GSCPI with a lag of several months, the most recent declines in the GSCPI suggest potential further declines in goods inflation in coming months.
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