Economic Review
First Quarter 2003 

Implications of Structural Changes in the U.S. Economy for Pricing Behavior and Inflation Dynamics
By Jonathan L. Willis

Some key features of the behavior of inflation in the United States appear to have changed in the past 20 years, with potentially important implications for forecasters and policymakers. Recent studies have provided evidence of a decline in both the variability and persistence of inflation.

Such shifts in the behavior or dynamics of inflation would necessitate changes in the economic relationships used by policymakers and economists to assess current conditions, forecast key economic indicators, and determine the implications of policy changes for future economic activity.

Willis examines how structural changes in the economy over the past two decades may have affected the price-setting behavior of firms and, in turn, the behavior of aggregate inflation. He concludes that structural changes in the economy over the past 20 years have likely contributed to a decrease in the persistence and volatility of inflation.

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A Guide to Deposit Insurance Reform
By Antoine Martin 

Deposit insurance was introduced in the United States during the Great Depression primarily to promote financial stability. Stability is enhanced because deposit insurance reduces the likelihood of a bank run. During its first four decades, deposit insurance appeared to work well as few banks failed. But in the 1980s, a wave of financial troubles in the banking and thrift industry exposed an unfortunate side of deposit insurance—moral hazard. In other words, deposit insurance encouraged undercapitalized depository institutions to take excessive risk. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act, or FDICIA, was designed to prevent moral hazard, which many observers claim was a major cause of the 1980s crisis.

Today’s banking system is not in crisis. In fact, most banks are doing well. Still, both houses of Congress are debating new ways to reform deposit insurance. The view of many in the banking industry is that currently deposit insurance has a number of flaws.

Martin provides a guide to key issues in the current deposit insurance debate. He gives a brief history of deposit insurance, exploring the roots of the problems that concern the industry today. Next, he provides an overview of the current reform proposals as they relate to three issues: the size of the fund, the structure of insurance premiums and rebates, and insurance coverage.

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Why Has the Nonfinancial Commercial Paper Market Shrunk Recently?
By Pu Shen 

The total volume of nonfinancial commercial paper outstanding peaked in the fall of 2000 and has declined rapidly ever since. By September 2002, the market had shrunk more than 50 percent. Relative to historical patterns, both the magnitude and the timing of the decline are unusual. The decline is the largest on record, and the market started to shrink before the recent recession began. In the past, the volume of commercial paper outstanding tended to increase during the early stages of recessions.

Commercial paper is an important source of external funding for corporate borrowers and has become increasingly popular over the years. Despite a recent dramatic decline, the volume of commercial paper outstanding in September 2002 was still about one-sixth of bank commercial and industrial loans.

Shen investigates the factors contributing to the dramatic decline in the commercial paper market and assesses whether the recent shrinkage is likely to continue. She begins by documenting the recent sharp decline in the volume of nonfinancial commercial paper outstanding and contrasts this development with historical experience. Next, she considers the factors that may have reduced the supply of credit in the commercial paper market and discusses the factors that may have reduced the demand. She concludes that declines in both supply and demand have contributed to the shrinkage of the market. Looking forward, although the demand factors are waning, the supply factors are likely to persist in the near term and keep the commercial paper market under pressure.

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Will Rains and a National Recovery Bring Rural Prosperity?
By Jason Henderson and Nancy Novack 

Drought and a jobless recovery battered the rural economy in 2002. The worst drought since the Dust Bowl gripped many parts of rural America, leading to forest fires, livestock liquidations, short crop supplies, and a plunge in farm incomes. After a solid start, a soft period for the national economy limited the ability of rural businesses to create new jobs. As rural stakeholders looked at their new menu of economic options, many were left wondering if rains and a stronger national recovery would be enough to lead rural America back to prosperity.

Henderson and Novack examine the rural outlook in the face of drought and a weak national recovery. They analyze the current state of the farm economy, focusing on the drought and its impacts on the farm sector. Next, they explore the jobless recovery on the Main Streets and industrial parks of rural communities. They conclude that the return of rain and stronger national economic growth should improve the prospects for rural areas in 2003. To prosper in the long run, however, many rural places must create new opportunities forged on a renewed commitment to entrepreneurship and innovation.

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