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Forthcoming

Tracking U.S. GDP in Real Time

By Taeyoung Doh and Jaeheung Bae A new model for tracking GDP in real time allows policymakers to assess the current state of the economy.

Did Local Factors Contribute to the Decline in Bank Branches?

By Rajdeep Sengupta and Jacob Dice The number of bank branches has declined since the financial crisis, driven partly by changes in local market and competitive factors.

Second Quarter 2019

Implementation Delays in Pension Retrenchment Reforms

By Huixin Bi, Kevin Hunt and Sarah Zubairy On average, pension retrenchment reforms are phased in over a decade, but age-related forms can take much longer to implement.

Capital Reallocation and Capital Investment

By David Rodziewicz and Nicholas Sly Rising merger and acquisition activity complements investment growth by allowing firms to build their productive capacity.

The Phillips Curve and the Missing Disinflation from the Great Recession

By Willem Van Zandweghe Expectations shaped by monetary policy kept inflation stable during the Great Recession despite disinflationary pressure from high unemployment.

Economic Review Archive

First Quarter 2019

The Rise and Fall of College Tuition Inflation

By Brent Bundick and Emily Pollard Wages in the education sector and state appropriations to higher ed help explain changes in college tuition over time.

What Explains Lifetime Earnings Differences across Individuals?

By José Mustre-del-Río and Emily Pollard Cumulative labor market experience explains a substantial portion of differences in lifetime earnings across individuals.

Do Changes in Reserve Balances Still Influence the Federal Funds Rate?

By A. Lee Smith Declining reserves have placed upward pressure on the federal funds rate in recent years despite the payment of interest on reserve balances.

The Faster Growth of Larger, Less Crowded Locations

By Jordan Rappaport Jobs and residents have increasingly migrated to larger, less crowded metros, where business productivity and urban amenities have increased.

Additional files: Data and Code Files

The Response of U.S. Investment to Oil Price Shocks: Does the Shale Boom Matter?

By Nida Cakir Melek The shale boom led to greater spillovers from oil investment to aggregate investment.

Machine Learning Approaches to Macroeconomic Forecasting

By Aaron Smalter Hall A machine learning model can incorporate large amounts of data to forecast the unemployment rate.

Foreword

In July 2018, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosted a symposium titled “Agriculture in a Global Economy.” Esther L. George, the Bank’s President and Chief Executive Officer, highlights the expanding scope of agricultural trade and the agriculture sector’s position in the global economy.

Exploring the Economic Impact of Changing Climate Conditions and Trade Policies on Agricultural Trade: A CGE Analysis

By Eddy Bekkers and Lee Ann Jackson Bekkers and Jackson explore the potential effect of climate-change-related productivity growth and trade costs on global economic outcomes.

The Business Merits of Agricultural Trade

By Michael A. Boland Boland reviews the advantages and disadvantages of international agricultural trade and discusses the role of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements.

Agriculture and International Labor Flows

By Philip Martin Martin examines how farm employers have responded to the changing cost and composition of the farm labor force.

Agrifood Foreign Direct Investment and Waves of Globalization of Emerging Markets: Lessons for U.S. Firms

By Titus Awokuse and Thomas Reardon Awokuse and Reardon discuss how agrifood firms have adapted their foreign direct investment strategies through three waves of globalization.
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