Unconventional Monetary Policy and Local Fiscal Policy
By Huixin Bi and Nora Traum
RWP 22-15, November 2022

Central bank municipal bond purchases increase private investment but have muted effects on state and local government spending.

Prior Fraud Exposure and Precautionary Credit Market Behavior
By Nathan Blascak and Ying Lei Toh
RWP 22-14, November 2022

After the Equifax data breach, consumers with prior exposure to fraud were more likely to take precautions in the credit market.

The Economic Effects of a Rapid Increase in the Minimum Wage: Evidence from South Korea Experiments
By Taeyoung Doh, Kyoo il Kim, Sungil Kim, and Hwanoong Lee
RWP 22-13, November 2022

Evidence from South Korea suggests that the pace of a minimum wage increase may determine the magnitude of the employment effects.

Immigration Disruptions and the Wages of Unskilled Labor in the 1920s
By Elior Cohen and Jeff Biddle
RWP 22-12, September 2022

Restrictive laws in the 1920s substantially reduced immigration, disproportionately pushing up wages in industries and regions more dependent on immigrant labor.

Leaning Against the Data: Policymaker Communications under State-Based Forward Guidance
By Taeyoung Doh, Joseph Gruber and Dongho Song
RWP 22-11, September 2022

Policymakers tended to downplay positive economic data after state-based forward guidance was put in place.

Downward Wage Rigidity and Recession Dynamics in Advanced and Emerging Economies
By Johannes Matschke and Jun Nie
RWP 22-10, September 2022; updated April 2023

Cross-country evidence suggests that wage rigidity leads to employment contractions and lower output during recessions.

Credit Guarantee and Fiscal Costs
By Huixin Bi, Yongquan Cao and Wei Dong
RWP 22-09, September 2022

A government guarantee on infrastructure investment can raise non-performing loans and dampen economic activity in the near term.

Foreign Reserve Management and U.S. Money Market Liquidity: A Cost of Exorbitant Privilege
By Ron Alquist, R. Jay Kahn and Karlye Dilts Stedman
RWP 22-08, September 2022

During periods of market stress, foreign use of the dollar as a reserve currency can lead to illiquidity in U.S. money markets.

Attention Allocation and Heterogenous Consumption Responses
By Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Penghui Yin
RWP 22-07, July 2022

Differences in households’ risk assessments help explain differences in households’ consumption responses during the Great Recession.

The Supply and Demand of Agricultural Loans
By Francisco Scott, Todd Kuethe, Ty Kreitman, and David Oppedahl
RWP 22-06, July 2022

Changes in the volume of non-real-estate farm loans at commercial banks are mainly driven by changes in excess demand for loans.

Rational but Not Prescient: Borrowing during the Fracking Boom
By Daniel Berkowitz, Andrew J. Boslett, Jason P. Brown, and Jeremy G. Weber
RWP 22-05, May 2022

Owners who leased natural gas rights in the mid-2000s expected large payments and so borrowed thousands of dollars.

Assessing Regulatory Responses to Banking Crises
By Padma Sharma and Trambak Banerjee
RWP 22-04, May 2022; updated August 2022

Evidence suggests banking regulators acted in the public interest in the 1980s, while the regulator for savings and loans did not.

The Effect of Housing First Programs on Future Homelessness and Socioeconomic Outcomes
By Elior Cohen
RWP 22-03, March 2022

Evidence suggests that the Housing First approach to addressing homelessness generates positive and cost-effective housing and non-housing outcomes.

The Term Structure of Monetary Policy Uncertainty
By Brent Bundick, Trenton Herriford and A. Lee Smith
RWP 22-02, February 2022

FOMC announcements transmit to financial markets and the economy not only by changing the expected path of future interest rates but also by reshaping interest rate uncertainty across different horizons.

Supervisory Stringency, Payout Restrictions, and Bank Equity Prices
By W. Blake Marsh
RWP 22-01, January 2022

Pandemic restrictions on bank payouts to shareholders reduced bank stock returns while strengthening bank capital.