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• Fed in Print

  A searchable index of Federal Reserve economic research.

  
  
  

Recent Research

• Model Uncertainty and Intertemporal Tax Smoothing

  By Yulei Luo, Jun Nie, and Eric R. Young
  What are the implications of model uncertainty for the tax-smoothing hypothesis?

• A Bayesian Evaluation of Alternative Models of Trend Inflation

  By Todd E. Clark and Taeyoung Doh
  Averaging forecasts from alternative models of trend inflation can provide more reliable medium-term inflation forecasts than using a single best-fitting model of trend inflation.

• A Chronology of Turning Points in Economic Activity: Spain 1850-2011

  By Travis J. Berge and Òscar Jordà
  A novel historical chronology of business cycle turning points for the Spanish economy for the years 1850-2011 is produced to inform the study of macroeconomic fluctuations and policy responses for that economy.

• A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding

  By Hsieh Fushing, Shu-Chun Chen, Travis J. Berge and Òscar Jordà
  A novel method for recognizing different phases of the business cycle is developed and used to create novel business cycle chronologies for 22 major economies.

• Forecasting Disconnected Exchange Rates

  By Travis J. Berge
  Movements in exchange rates are erratic and often appear to be disconnected from macroeconomic fundamentals. Explicitly taking these instabilities into account when forecasting exchange rates may help improve the forecast ability of empirical models.

• Estimating VAR's Sampled at Mixed or Irregular Spaced Frequencies: A Bayesian Approach

  By Ching Wai (Jeremy) Chiu, Bjørn Eraker, Andrew T. Foerster, Tae Bong Kim and Hernán D. Seoane
  How can we combine data collected at various frequencies to improve statistical models of the economy?

• The Aggregate Implications of Individual Labor Supply Heterogeneity

  By José Mustre-del-Río
  Accounting for individual differences in labor market attachment reveals that aggregate employment is less elastic to wage changes than previously thought.

• Commodity Dependence and Fiscal Capacity

  By Mauricio Cárdenas, Santiago Ramírez and Didem Tuzemen
  Analysis of cross-country panel data provides evidence that fiscal state capacities are lower in countries that are more dependent on commodity exports, such as oil, whose rents can be easily appropriated by the government.

• Under-Investment in State Capacity: The Role of Inequality and Political Instability

  By Mauricio Cárdenas and Didem Tuzemen
  Analysis of cross-country data shows that the fiscal capacity of the state is higher in more stable and equal societies, both in economic and political terms, and in countries where the chances of fighting an external war are high.

• Financial Crises, Unconventional Monetary Policy Exit Strategies, and Agents' Expectations

  By Andrew T. Foerster
  How do expectations affect the conduct of unconventional monetary policy during financial crises?

• Note on the Role of Natural Condition of Control in the Estimation of DSGE Models

  By Martin Fukac and Vladimir Havlena
  The performance of policy-oriented DSGE models would benefit from including more economic data than is typically included in the literature.

• Employment Patterns During the Recovery: Who Are Getting the Jobs and Why?

  By Ayegul Sahin and Jonathan L. Willis
  Although men suffered the most job losses during the recession of 2007-09, they now are experiencing the strongest gains in employment during the recovery.

• Would Active Labor Market Policies Help Combat High U.S. Unemployment?

  By Jun Nie and Ethan Struby
  A look at how active and passive labor market policies are utilized in other countries indicates the United States might benefit from more training programs and job-search assistance.

Kansas City Financial Stress Index

This index is a monthly measure of stress in the U.S. financial system based on 11 market variables.

The KCFSI suggests financial stress edged down in December but remained above its long-run average.

• Economic Review

  The Economic Review is a quarterly research publication with articles by Kansas City Fed staff on issues of relevance to the Federal Reserve, including macroeconomics and monetary policy, regional and international economics, banking, financial markets and payments systems.

• Research Working Papers

  The Kansas City Fed's research staff members produce working papers covering a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, banking and more.

• Economic Symposium Conference Proceedings

  The proceedings include papers, commentary and discussion from the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium. Participants include central bankers, finance ministers, academics and financial market participants from around the globe. They discuss economic issues, implications and policy options.

• Central Bank Forecasting Presentations - October 2010

  Invited applied and theoretical papers on all aspects of central bank forecasting.