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Our national economic research focuses on monetary policy and other issues of importance to the Federal Reserve. Results are shared with other researchers, policymakers and the public.
Expectations of Large-Scale Asset Purchases
By Andrew Foerster and Guangye Cao
Event studies often misestimate the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs because they ignore the impact of prior, rising expectations in financial markets that a given new program may be in the offing.
Economic Growth in Foreign Regions and U.S. Export Growth
By Jun Nie and Lisa Taylor
U.S. export growth tends to vary with changes in different foreign regions' economic growth rates. This article estimates how much change in U.S. export growth may be associated with a rise or fall in a given region's GDP growth.
The Vanishing Middle: Job Polarization and Workers' Response to the Decline in Middle-Skill Jobs
By Didem Tuzemen and Jonathan L. Willis
The pace of “job polarization,” in which employment shifts from middle-skill to high- and low-skill jobs, has varied across industries and across the business cycle. It has also varied by gender, age and level of education.
The Settlement of the United States, 1800 to 2000: The Long Transition Toward Gibrat's Law
By Klaus Desmet and Jordan Rappaport
Throughout most of U.S. history, low-population counties and metros tended to have the fastest population growth rates. More recently, however, high-population counties and metros have tended to grow fastest.
Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models
By Andrew Foerster, Juan Rubio-Ramirez, Dan Waggoner, and Tao Zha
How can we solve models where the economic environment changes over time?
Kansas City Financial Stress Index
This index is a monthly measure of stress in the U.S. financial system based on 11 market variables.
The KCFSI suggests financial stress remains subdued.Current Survey
The Economic Review is a quarterly research publication with articles by Kansas City Fed staff on issues of relevance to the Federal Reserve, including macroeconomics and monetary policy, regional and international economics, banking, financial markets and payments systems.
Research Working Papers
The Kansas City Fed's research staff members produce working papers covering a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, banking and more.See recent postings
Economic Symposium Conference Proceedings
The proceedings include papers, commentary and discussion from the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium. Participants include central bankers, finance ministers, academics and financial market participants from around the globe. They discuss economic issues, implications and policy options.
Central Bank Forecasting Presentations - October 2010
Invited applied and theoretical papers on all aspects of central bank forecasting.