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Our national economic research focuses on monetary policy and other issues of importance to the Federal Reserve. Results are shared with other researchers, policymakers and the public.
Following the Leaders: Wage Growth of Job Switchers
By José Mustre-del-Río
In The Macro Bulletin, José Mustre-del-Río analyzes labor market conditions to find increasing competitive pressures have led to strong wage growth for job switchers.
Implications of Recent U.S. Energy Trends for Trade Forecasts
By Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie
In the Economic Review, Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie separate energy from non-energy components of trade to examine how changes in energy production affect trade forecasts.
- Search with Wage Posting under Sticky Prices
Accounting for Changes in the U.S. Budget Deficit
By Troy Davig and Michael Redmond
In an article for the Economic Review, Troy Davig and Michael Redmond gauge the contributions of three factors to the declining U.S. federal budget deficit. The article is summarized in the Macro Bulletin.
Self-Employment and Health Care Reform: Evidence from Massachusetts
By Thealexa Becker and Didem Tüzemen
Health insurance access may influence individuals' decisions to become or remain self-employed. Examining the Massachusetts Health Care Reform, this paper finds that the reform supported self-employment in the state.
Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand
By Susanto Basu and Brent Bundick
When prices adjust slowly to changing economic conditions, higher uncertainty about the future can cause a recession. Uncertainty played a non-trivial role in amplifying the Great Recession.
What We Don't Know Doesn't Hurt Us: Rational Inattention and the Permanent Income Hypothesis in Gene
By Yulei Luo, Jun Nie Gaowang Wang, and Eric R. Young
How would deviating from the full-information assumption in the permanent income model change the equilibrium interest rate?
Yield Curve and Monetary Policy Expectations in Small Open Economies
By Kwan Soo Bong, Taeyoung Doh and Woong Yong Park
What does the yield curve tell us about a monetary transmission channel from the short rate to long-term interest rates in small open economies?
House Prices, Heterogeneous Banks and Unconventional Monetary Policy Options
By Andrew Lee Smith
House price swings can have dramatic effects on the economy through banks' and borrowers' balance sheets. However, a prolonged quantitative easing program can significantly offset the detrimental effects of a housing downturn.
A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions
By Andrew Lee Smith, John W. Keating, Logan J. Kelly, and Victor J. Valcarcel
Monetary policy actions have significant effects on real economic activity and prices. However, the estimated quantitative effects of monetary policy have greatly diminished since 2008.
New Exporter Dynamics
By Jonathan L. Willis
This paper documents and models the behavior of firms that enter the export market. We find that the present value of future profits from exporting for new entrants is significantly lower than estimated by previous models.
Monocentric City Redux
By Jordan Rappaport
Metro employment remains highly concentrated near downtown locations. Traffic congestion strongly affects the rate at which residential density and house prices decrease with distance from these.
Kansas City Financial Stress Index
This index is a monthly measure of stress in the U.S. financial system based on 11 market variables.
The KCFSI suggests financial stress remains muted.Current Survey
The Economic Review is a quarterly research publication with articles by Kansas City Fed staff on issues of relevance to the Federal Reserve, including macroeconomics and monetary policy, regional and international economics, banking, financial markets and payments systems.
Research Working Papers
The Kansas City Fed's research staff members produce working papers covering a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, banking and more.
The Macro Bulletin offers snapshots of the Kansas City Fed's latest macroeconomic findings and perspectives on national economic conditions and issues related to monetary policy.
Economic Symposium Conference Proceedings
The proceedings include papers, commentary and discussion from the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium. Participants include central bankers, finance ministers, academics and financial market participants from around the globe. They discuss economic issues, implications and policy options.
Central Bank Forecasting Presentations - October 2010
Invited applied and theoretical papers on all aspects of central bank forecasting.