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Our national economic research focuses on monetary policy and other issues of importance to the Federal Reserve. Results are shared with other researchers, policymakers and the public.
The Weakened Influence of Low Interest Rates on Durable Goods Spending
By Willem Van Zandweghe and John Carter Braxton
Despite record-low interest rates, the pace of the current economic recovery has been only moderate. One reason is that the positive impact of lowered interest rates on consumer purchases of durable goods has diminished.
U.S. Exports and Foreign Economic Growth: Which Regions Matter Most?
By Jun Nie and Lisa Taylor
U.S. export growth tends to vary with changes in different foreign regions' economic growth rates. This article estimates how much change in U.S. export growth may be associated with a rise or fall in a given region's GDP growth.
Has The Effect of Monetary Policy Announcements On Asset Prices Changed?
By Taeyoung Doh and Michael Connolly
The Federal Reserve has increased communication about the future path of the federal funds target rate over time. The use of forward guidance as a policy tool has raised questions about changes in how it influences the economy.
Kinked Demand Curves, the Natural Rate Hypothesis, and Macroeconomic Stability
By Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe
Does high trend inflation render monetary policy less effective?
Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection Over the Business Cycle
By Travis Berge
Which economic indicators are most effective at signaling the risk of an impending recession?
Kansas City Financial Stress Index
This index is a monthly measure of stress in the U.S. financial system based on 11 market variables.
The KCFSI suggests financial stress remains subdued.Current Survey
The Economic Review is a quarterly research publication with articles by Kansas City Fed staff on issues of relevance to the Federal Reserve, including macroeconomics and monetary policy, regional and international economics, banking, financial markets and payments systems.
Research Working Papers
The Kansas City Fed's research staff members produce working papers covering a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, banking and more.
The Macro Bulletin offers snapshots of the Kansas City Fed's latest macroeconomic findings and perspectives on national economic conditions and issues related to monetary policy.
Economic Symposium Conference Proceedings
The proceedings include papers, commentary and discussion from the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium. Participants include central bankers, finance ministers, academics and financial market participants from around the globe. They discuss economic issues, implications and policy options.
Central Bank Forecasting Presentations - October 2010
Invited applied and theoretical papers on all aspects of central bank forecasting.